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US index rebounds to around $100, US refuses to exempt 10% of its reciprocal tariffs on Japan
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The US index rebounds to around $100, and the United States refuses to exempt 10% of the reciprocal tariffs on the day." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On May 6, early trading in the Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 100. On Monday, the US dollar index fluctuated and fell in the Asian and European sessions. Later, the US dollar index rebounded below $100 due to the unexpected ISM non-manufacturing data boosted, and finally closed down 0.24% to 99.79. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.350%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.8450%. Driven by weakening the US dollar and safe-haven demand, spot gold rose nearly $100 during the day and finally closed up 2.85% at $3,332.85 per ounce. Spot silver eventually rose 1.42% to $32.45 per ounce. Crude oil opened on Monday and closed down more than $1 after market news said OPEC+ will continue to accelerate its production growth. WTI crude oil finally closed down 2.06% at $57.15 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 1.82% at $60.30 per barrel.
Analysis of major currency trends
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 100. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Becent said the United States may finalize some trade deals as early as this week, which has sparked optimism. He said he was confident that 17 trading partners except China had already put forward "very good" proposals that were under review. Technically, the closest resistance level of the US dollar index is in the range of 100.20–100.40. If the U.S. dollar index successfully closes above the 100.40 level, it will move towards the next resistance level 101.40–101.60.
Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends
1) Analysis of gold market trends
On Tuesday, gold trading was around 3359.45. Driven by the weakening of the US dollar and safe-haven demand, gold prices rose nearly 3% on Monday, and spot gold closed at $3333.73/ounce, up nearly $100 from last Friday's closing price. The market is waiting for the Federal Reserve's policy decision later this week. The US March trade account will be released on this trading day. Investors need to pay attention. In addition, we need to continue to pay attention to the relevant news about the geopolitical situation and international trade situation.
2) Analysis of crude oil market trends
On the Asian session on Tuesday, crude oil trading around 56.98. After the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced that it will strengthen its internal production quota from June, it will recover recent losses. This move is widely regarded as a way to punish small OPEC countries that ignore the voluntary production cap, including Kazakhstan and Iraq.
Technical: From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil needs to climb above $58.00 to have a chance to gain upward momentum.
Forex Market Trading Reminder on May 6, 2025
The European Central Bank held a Central Bank Forum
09:45 China's April Caixin Service Industry PMI
13:45 Switzerland's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate
14:45 France's March industrial output monthly rate
15:50 France's April service industry PMI final value
15:55 Germany's April service industry PMI final value
16:00 Eurozone's April service industry PMI final value
16:30 UK's April service industry PMI final value
17:00 Eurozone's March PPI monthly rate
20:30 US China's March trade account
22:00 US April global supply chain pressure index
EIA released its monthly short-term energy outlook report
EIA announced its monthly short-term energy outlook report
Electric bond bidding on the next day 01:00 US to May 6-Bidding interest rate
Electric bond bidding on the next day 01:00 US to May 6-Bidding multiple
Electric crude oil inventories on the next day 04:30 US to May 2
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