U.S. and Iran will start the fifth round of nuclear negotiations, safe-haven demand rebounds, gold prices hit a new weekly high

Basic news

On Thursday (May 22 Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3320.82, and gold prices rose for the third consecutive trading day on Wednesday, setting a new weekly high, helped by weakening the dollar and safe-haven demand under economic and geopolitical uncertainty; U.S. crude oil trading was around 61.27 US dollars per barrel, and U.S. oil rose above 64 US dollars per barrel on Wednesday due to reports that Israel was preparing to crack down on Iran's nuclear facilities, and then fell back after falling as Omani Foreign Minister said Iran and the United States would hold a new round of nuclear dialogue later this week, and EIA data showed an increase in inventory.

Focus on this day

The European Central Bank will release minutes of the April monetary policy meeting.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Wednesday on fears that U.S. government debt would increase trillions of dollars if Congress passed a tax cut bill proposed by President Trump, causing a surge in bond yields.

The three major Wall Street stock indexes closed at the largest single-day decline in a month. Small caps also fell sharply, with the Russell 2000 hitting its biggest single-day decline since April 10. U.S. long-term Treasury yields rose, after the U.S. Treasury Department's bid for $16 billion of 20-year Treasury bonds, weak investor demand. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 10.8 basis points to 4.589%, reaching its highest level since mid-February during the session.

Non-partisan analysts say the Republican tax cut bill could increase the federal government's $36.2 trillion debt by $3 trillion to $5 trillion.

Chief Executive Officer of Investment Consulting FarrMiller & Washington in WashingtonMichael Farr said, "There are headlines everywhere now. If it does happen, each one may have consequences, but many of these things are just short-term threats. The market is trying to distinguish which ones are really important and substantial, and which may be just the government's bluff during negotiations."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.91% to 41,860.44 points; the S&P 500 fell 1.61% to 5,844.61 points; and the Nasdaq fell 1.41% to 18,872.64 points.

10 of the S&P 500 index's 11 sectors fell, with real estate, healthcare, finance, utilities, consumer discretionary and technology sectors leading the decline. xmaccount.communications service stocks rose.

Google parent Alphabet rose 2.7%, while Nvidia fell 1.9%, Apple fell 2.3%, and Tesla fell 2.7%.

United Health Group plummeted nearly 6%, after the Guardian reported that the medical insurance xmaccount.company secretly paid thousands of dollars in bonuses to nursing homes to reduce the number of seriously ill residents being taken to hospitals. HSBC lowered the stock's rating from "holding" to "reducing holdings." The S&P 500 has climbed more than 17% from its April lows.

Morgan Stanley raised the U.S. stock market rating to "overweight", saying that the global economy is still expanding despite a slow pace amid policy uncertainty.

Gold market

Gold prices rose for the third consecutive trading day on Wednesday and hit a weekly high, helped by a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand under economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Spot gold was $3312.77 per ounce, up 0.7%. U.S. gold futures closed up 0.9%, with a settlement price of $3,313.50 per ounce.

U.S. stocks fell, government bond yields rose, and investors were closely watching key debates about U.S. President Donald Trump’s tax cut bill, which has heightened concerns about rising U.S. debt.

Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said: "We paused in the middle between highs and recent lows, waiting for more signals from trade and tariff agreements. A Reuters survey of economists shows that despite the temporary cooling of the U.S. trade war, the U.S. economic outlook remains weak, and debates over U.S. fiscal health are pending.

Other aspects, xmaccount.comN reported on Tuesday, citing multiple sources that new intelligence showed that Israel was preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities and the Trump administration was in conversation with Iran about its uranium enrichment plan. Silver rose 0.8% to $33.32 an ounce.

Platinum rose 1.4% to $1,068.16, after hitting its highest since May 2024. Palladium rose 0.8%, hitting a more than six-month high of $1,021.40.

Oil market

Oil prices closed lower on Wednesday, after Oman's outside ofMinister of xmaccount.communications said Iran and the United States will hold a new round of nuclear dialogue later this week. Oil prices rose earlier after xmaccount.comN reported on Tuesday that new intelligence obtained by the United States showed that Israel is preparing to crack down on Iran's nuclear facilities. It is unclear whether the Israeli leader has made a final decision.

Brent crude oil futures closed down 0.7%, with a settlement price of $64.91 per barrel. U.S. crude oil futures fell 0.7% to $61.57.

Iran is the third largest producer of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and Israeli attacks may disrupt oil circulation in the country. "We are now in a new round of peace talks, thus offsetting the previous premium," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup. "Nevertheless, there are still concerns that Iran will take retaliation to prevent tankers from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, where crude oil and fuel exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE will pass through the Strait.

The United States and Iran have held multiple rounds of talks on Iran's nuclear program this year, and US President Trump has previously restarted actions to strengthen sanctions on Iran's crude oil exports.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate stocks all rose unexpectedly in the week ending May 16.

U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels in the week ending May 16. Gasoline stocks rose by 816,000 barrels to 225,500 barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 580,000 barrels to 104.1 million barrels.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar fell against multiple currencies on Wednesday, affected by concerns about the Trump administration’s tax cuts and spending bills and weak demand for 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds, which reinforces investors’ view that they are shying away from U.S. assets.

There are still differences within the Republican Party on the details of the tax bill. U.S. President Trump met with Republicans in the House on Tuesday but failed to convince Republican die-hards to support his xmaccount.comprehensive tax bill. House Speaker Johnson said Republican hardliners still believe the bill is inadequate in cutting spending.

At the same time, the dollar continued to decline against major currencies such as the euro and the yen, after weak demand for 20-year Treasury bonds sold by US$16 billion. The bid-winning interest rate for this bid set a record high of 5.047%, higher than the yield on the secondary market's same-year government bonds at the end of the bidding period, indicating that investors are willing to buy this batch of new bonds for a premium.

After the bidding ended, the U.S. 20-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since November 2023 by 5.127%. The dollar expanded its decline against the euro and yen as a result.

Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income analysis for ActionEconomics in San Francisco, said: "The disappointing bid results are in line with weaker demand for U.S. assets and fiscal concerns.The statement of ‘selling American assets’ transaction. The tax bill being considered by the House further exacerbated market tensions. ”

In afternoon trading, the euro rose 0.4% against the dollar to $1.1334, after climbing to a two-week high. Nonpartisan analysts say Trump’s tax bill will increase U.S. government debt by $3 trillion to $5 trillion.

Traders are also worried that U.S. officials may use the dollar as part of a trade deal with other countries during the G7 Treasury Secretary meeting in Canada.

The global tariff war initiated by Trump in recent months has caused substantial exchange rate fluctuations, but this week, the development has slowed sharply, with the U.S. 90-day tariff suspension period for trading partners xmaccount.coming to an end, but no new deal has been reached.

Yen against the dollar The strengthening continued the uptrend brought about by a sharp rise in domestic bond yields this week, with the dollar falling 0.6% to 143.62 yen.

Japan's 30-year bond yield soared to a new high on Wednesday due to poor bid results raising concerns about the bond offering in the xmaccount.coming weeks. As U.S. Treasury yields rose and concerns over new fiscal stimulus measures were intensified ahead of the Japanese Senate election scheduled for July, ultra-long-term Japanese bond yields continued to rise.

Forex.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada wrote in an email xmaccount.comment: "The rise in Japanese bond yields narrowed the gap with U.S. Treasury yields and reduced motivation to hold the dollar. ”

The US dollar/yen trend may be reversing as Japan’s 10-year bond yield climbs while U.S. Treasury yields remain stable. The pair gets a brief breathing around 140.00, but now it looks vulnerable again.

xmaccount.comN reported on Tuesday that the latest intelligence collected by the U.S. shows that Israel is preparing for the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, with the Japanese yen and safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss franc and gold rising.

Party participants are also looking forward to U.S. talks, with Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu Katsunobu said before meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent Becent on Tuesday that exchange rate negotiations will be based on consensus between the two sides , i.e. excessive exchange rate fluctuations are not desirable.

One of other currencies, the pound hit the highest level since February 2022, with previously released data showing that UK consumer inflation in April was higher than most economists' expectations, thus weakening the Bank of England's rapid rate cut.

International News

Israeli Prime Minister said it would fully control Gaza reserves unilateral rights to act versus Iran

On the evening of the 21st local time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held his first press conference since December 2024. Netanyahu said that the Israeli military's military operations in the Gaza Strip have achieved phased results, but the overall goal has not been xmaccount.completed. He said Israel has achievedThe brief ceasefire is ready, but reiterates that the ceasefire must be "temporary". In the future Gaza arrangements, Israel will continue to fully control the entire Gaza Strip. Netanyahu said Israel has successfully rescued 148 detained people, but 20 surviving detained people are still trapped in the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu reiterated that Israel is willing to end the war on the premise of explicitly ensuring national security, including the release of all detained personnel, Hamas disarmed, its leadership deported, and Gaza's full demilitarization. He warned that any call for a ceasefire before Israel achieves these goals is in fact equivalent to accepting Hamas' continued power. Speaking about the Houthi threat to Israel, Netanyahu said that Israel has not yet made a final response.

The EU is reportedly submitting a new trade proposal to the United States in an attempt to promote the negotiation process

The EU has submitted a revised trade proposal to the United States in an attempt to promote negotiations with the Trump administration, although the outside world is still doubtful about whether the two sides can reach an agreement. According to people familiar with the matter, the new proposal includes proposals that take into account U.S. interests, including international labor rights, environmental standards, economic security, and gradually reduce tariffs on non-sensitive agricultural products and industrial products on both sides to zero. The document, sent to Washington earlier this week, also outlines mutual investment and strategic procurement in the fields of energy, artificial intelligence and digital connectivity.

Tariff policies affect the sharp decline in the US inland shipping barge transportation volume

The US government's tariff policies not only disrupt global trade, but also gradually emerged. The Arkansas River shipping system is an important part of the U.S. Inland Waterway Network, mainly transporting agricultural products, timber, oil and coal resources to support the economic development of the basin. According to US media reports, due to tariff policies, cargo transportation volume in the Arkansas River declined. Data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers showed that in the first four months of this year, the total freight volume along the Arkansas River was about 3.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15%; among which, the month-on-year decline in April reached 21%.

The White House said that failure to pass the tax bill would be "the ultimate betrayal". The White House increased pressure on the Republican Party on Wednesday, urging lawmakers to quickly approve the tax bill signed by President Trump, adding that not doing so would be "the ultimate betrayal." The White House Office of Management and Budget wrote in a memo supporting the bill: "The House should pass the bill immediately, showing the American people that they take the promises they made, the promises they fulfilled. President Trump is xmaccount.committed to delivering on his promises. "The Republicans made some progress on Wednesday in advancing Trump's bill. House Speaker Mike Johnson announced that he had reached a deal with lawmakers in high-tax states to raise the state and local tax relief limit to $40,000, winning the support of key factions who had threatened to obstruct the bill. "SALT caucus members had sincere negotiations yesterday," Rep. Mike Lawler, Republican of New York, said Wednesday, "We have reached something we believe in and support." ”

The fifth round of Iran-US nuclear negotiations will be held in Rome on May 23

On the evening of the 21st local time, Omani Foreign Minister Bader stated through his social account that the fifth round of Iran-US nuclear negotiations will be held in Rome on May 23. The United States and Iran held indirect talks in Muscat, the capital of Oman on April 12. This is the first formal negotiation between the United States and Iraq since the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal during its first presidency in May 2018. On April 19, Iraq and the United States held the second round of indirect talks in Rome, Italy. On April 26, Yi and the United States held the third round of indirect talks in Muscat again. On May 11, Yi and the United States held the fourth round of indirect talks in Muscat.

Trump: Considering letting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae go public

U.S. President Trump: I am considering to letting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae go public very seriously. I will consult with Finance Minister Becente, xmaccount.commerce Secretary Lutnik and Federal Housing and Finance Director Pulte and will make a decision in the near future. Wait and see!

Domestic News

China Federation of Logistics and Procurement: The food supply chain industry started steadily in the first quarter

China Federation of Logistics and Procurement announced the operation data of the food supply chain for the first quarter today (22nd). As the economy recovers and improves, policy dividends continue to be released, and the scale of the food supply chain market steadily expanded in the first quarter, achieving a steady start. In the first quarter of this year, the food consumption market size was 2.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.98% year-on-year. The scale of food circulation was 1.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.17% year-on-year. The food market is strong and has strong resilience.

The express delivery industry has "increased volume and fell", and listed xmaccount.companies are actively exploring new growth. Since this year, the express delivery industry has achieved outstanding results. From January to April, my country's express delivery business volume reached a total of 61.45 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%. However, the operating data of listed express delivery xmaccount.companies such as SF Holdings, YTO Express, and Yunda Shares since the beginning of this year show that the revenue of express delivery tickets has continued to decline, and market xmaccount.competition has become increasingly fierce. Faced with the situation of "increasing volume and falling prices", express delivery xmaccount.companies have taken active actions and focused on new additions such as loose parts, reverse logistics, and industry customized solutions, trying to break through the siege by reducing costs and increasing efficiency.

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