Oil prices climb to two-week highs, dollar strengthens to suppress Gold prices fall after hitting four-week highs, geopolitical tensions boost

Basic news

On Wednesday (June 4, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3357.20. Gold fell nearly 1% on Tuesday after hitting a nearly four-week high. It was suppressed by the strengthening of the US dollar. Investors are also paying attention to the US non-farm employment data on Friday and speeches by several Federal Reserve officials to find clues to interest rate policy; U.S. crude oil trading was around 63.37 US dollars per barrel, and oil prices climbed to a two-week high on Tuesday, as the ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the United States and Iran seem to be sanctions against OPEC+ member states Russia and Iran for a longer period of time.

Stock Market

Major U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Tuesday, with rising Nvidia and other chipmakers bringing a boost, and investors awaiting possible negotiations between the U.S. and its trading partners for more information on Washington's tariff plans.

According to a draft letter to negotiating partners seen by Reuters, the Trump administration hopes countries will xmaccount.come up with the best plans for trade negotiations by Wednesday, with U.S. officials trying to speed up negotiations with multiple trading partners before the end of their own five-week suspension period. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, said: "The most important thing for investors is that the U.S. government will not impose these far-expected tariffs, and will not retain them, which will almost certainly lead to a recession. In fact, the U.S. is actively engaging with many trading partners such as the United Kingdom, Japan, and the European Union. This makes investors more optimistic that we will avoid a recession."

AllAs Trump's tough trade stance softened, risky assets have recovered, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Index, the largest monthly percentage gain since November 2023 in May.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.51% to 42519.64 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.58% to 5970.37 points; and the Nasdaq rose 0.81% to 19398.96 points. The information technology sector rose 1.5%, helped by Nvidia climbing 2.9%. Chip maker Broadcom rose 3.2%, a record high after it said it had begun delivering the latest network chips designed to accelerate artificial intelligence (AI).

The U.S. Department of Labor reports showed that job openings increased in April, but the number of layoffs also increased, suggesting that the labor market is slowing as tariffs have an impact on the economic outlook.

In April, factory orders fell sharply, and the boost from early procurement to avoid tariffs faded. Data from the U.S. Department of xmaccount.commerce's Economic Analysis Bureau showed that factory orders fell by 3.7% in April.

Monthly employment data to be released on Friday will provide more clues about how trade uncertainty affects the world's largest economy.

Wells Fargo rose after the Fed announced that it would no longer have to operate at the $1.95 trillion asset cap. The regulator imposed this cap on the bank in 2018 after a long-standing sales scandal. Wells Fargo closed up 1.2% on Tuesday and rose 2% after the market.

Golden market

Gold fell nearly 1% on Tuesday after hitting its nearly four-week high. Spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,352.30 an ounce, earlier in the session hitting its highest since May 8. U.S. gold futures closed down 0.6% to $3,377.10 per ounce.

The dollar rose 0.5% from its more than one-month low hit earlier intraday, increasing the cost of foreign buyers to buy gold.

We are entering a well-known summer downturn, so people expect gold markets to fall into some sort of deserted or sideways consolidation, said David Meger, head of metal trading at HighRidge Futures.

The EU Executive xmaccount.committee said that even if Trump proposes to double the steel and aluminum tariffs, the EU will push the U.S. to lower tariffs, while Washington urges trading partners to submit revised proposals by Wednesday to speed up negotiations.

Investors are also paying attention to U.S. nonfarm employment data and speeches from multiple Fed officials on Friday to find clues to interest rate policy.

U.S. data released on Tuesday showed job openings increased in April, but the number of layoffs rose, indicating that the labor market is cooling down amid increasing tariff concerns.

Spot silver fell 0.8% to $34.51 an ounce, but hovered around the seven-month high hit on the previous trading day. PlatinumUp 0.9% to $1,073.14 per ounce; palladium rose 2.1% to $1,009.83. Oil market

Oil prices climbed about 2% on Tuesday to a two-week high as ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the United States and Iran appear to keep sanctions against OPEC+ members Russia and Iran longer.

Brent crude oil futures rose 1.5% to close at $65.63 per barrel; U.S. crude oil rose 1.4% to close at $63.41.

Analysts at energy consulting firm Ritterbuschand Associates noted in a report that the risk premium rose this week as the prospects for the Russian/Ukrainian ceasefire and the Iran nuclear deal now appear to have been postponed for weeks or even months.

Russia said the effort to reach a resolution to end the Ukrainian war is extremely xmaccount.complex and it would be wrong to expect any decision to be made soon, but Russia is waiting for Ukraine to react to its proposal.

At the same time, OPEC member Iran will reject the U.S. nuclear deal proposal, which will be key to easing sanctions on the major oil-producing country.

U.S. energy data shows that in 2024, Iran is OPEC's third largest crude oil producer, second only to Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

In Canada, according to Reuters' calculations, wildfires in Alberta have affected more than 344,000 barrels of oil sands per day, accounting for about 7% of the country's total crude oil production.

In Europe, inflation in the euro zone fell below the ECB target last month due to unexpectedly modest service costs, supporting expectations of further policy easing, even as global trade tensions exacerbate long-term price pressures.

The U.S. job vacancies increased in April, but layoffs hit the biggest increase in nine months, suggesting that labor market conditions are weakening amid the bleak economic outlook due to tariffs.

Analysts predicted that energy xmaccount.companies pulled about 1 million barrels of crude oil from U.S. stocks fell for the second consecutive week. The American Petroleum Association (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released U.S. oil inventory data on Tuesdays and Wednesdays respectively.

Foreign market

The dollar rose on Tuesday, rebounding against the euro from a six-week low, although investors remained worried that the trade war launched by the Trump administration could damage the economy.

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at BannockburnGlobalForexLLC, said the dollar fell sharply and rebounded slightly today. I don’t think there is much new news at the moment that the dollar has seen any meaningful shifts, and I think the rebound is still quite limited.

The US dollar was 144.00 yen against the Japanese yen, up 0.9%. The euro fell 0.6% against the dollar to $1.1371.It had briefly hit a six-week high of $1.1454. Earlier data showed that inflation in the euro zone slowed down, below the 2% target set by the ECB, supporting expectations for a rate cut later this week. The dollar has fallen by about 9% against the euro this year.

Although global stock markets have rebounded across the board from the sharp drop in early April under the influence of Trump's repeated tariff threats, the dollar exchange rate is still under pressure.

As the U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum will double to 50% starting Wednesday, the Trump administration hopes countries will submit their best proposals in trade negotiations.

Tues on Tuesday showed that job openings in the U.S. increased in April, but layoffs rebounded, consistent with a trend of bleak economic outlook and a slowdown in the labor market.

Fed officials again advocated caution on Tuesday for monetary policy as Trump's trade war continues to inject a lot of uncertainty and risks of economic weakness into the economic outlook.

Financial concerns have also triggered a widespread "selling the United States" theme, with dollar assets falling in recent months, from stocks to government bonds.

This week, these concerns became the focus as the Senate began considering the government’s tax cuts and spending bill, which is estimated to increase the federal government’s $3.8 trillion in debt over the next decade. Despite this, traders in the forex options market believe the dollar will weaken further.

The pound fell 0.2% to $1.3519 on Tuesday, after which several policymakers of the Bank of England will speak and the UK government will also sell long-term bonds, which may help judge investors' confidence in the UK's fiscal.

International News

The US government proposed its first spending cut plan to recover $9.4 billion

On June 3 local time, the White House submitted an application to Congress on the same day, demanding the recovery of the approved $9.4 billion in spending, most of which is used for foreign aid. U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said that he had officially received an application from the White House to recover a total of $9.4 billion in wasted foreign aid spending for the United States Agency for International Development, the American Public Broadcasting Corporation, etc. Mike Johnson said the House will act quickly. It is reported that after the plan is submitted, Congress will have 45 days to process it. According to a previous report by the US political news website "Politico", two Republicans revealed that the proposal, known as the "rescissionsbill", is the first spending cut plan of the Trump administration, and is the result of a long internal game around how to formally promote the reduction measures of the "District of Government Efficiency".

The White House announced that it would raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50%

On June 3 local time, the White House issued a statement saying that US President Trump announced that it would raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum and its derivatives from 25% to 50%. The tariff policy has been 0 in the morning of June 4, 2025, Eastern Time.Effective from 0:01. The statement said that tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from the United States will remain at 25%. Starting from July 9, 2025, the United States may adjust the applicable tariff rates in accordance with the terms of the Environmental Policy Statement and formulate import quotas for steel and aluminum. If the UK is deemed to be in xmaccount.compliance with the relevant provisions of the Environmental Policy Statement, the applicable tariff rate can be increased to 50%. On May 30 local time, US President Trump said at a rally in Pennsylvania that he would raise tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50%. Subsequently, Trump posted on social media platforms that the decision will take effect from June 4.

The South Korean presidential election counted after the vote counting work was over. Lee Jae-ming won a vote count of 49.42%.

At around 5:03 local time on June 4, local time, the vote counting work for the 21st presidential election in South Korea was over. According to the vote counting results, the vote rate of the joint Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-ming won 49.42%, the vote rate of the Kuomintang candidate Kim Moon-soo won 41.15%, and the vote rate of the reform new party candidate Lee Junxi won 8.34%.

US media: Trump proposes a new framework for the Iran nuclear deal. Iran will respond in a few days

According to the New York Times, the Trump administration is proposing a deal to allow Iran to continue to enrich low-concentration uranium, while the United States and other countries will formulate more detailed plans to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons while allowing it to obtain nuclear fuel for new nuclear power plants. The proposal is a bridge between the coronavirus and the U.S. goal, where Iran is rapidly producing enriched uranium close to the weapon level, while the U.S. aims to not carry out uranium enrichment activities at its homeland. Under the proposal, the United States will assist Iran in building nuclear power plants and negotiate the construction of a consortium xmaccount.composed of regional countries to manage the construction of a concentration facility. Once Iran gains any benefit from these xmaccount.commitments, all uranium enrichment activities carried out in the country must be stopped. European officials described the outline of the potential agreement, which was submitted to Iran over the weekend. Iranian officials said they would respond in a few days.

U.S. job vacancy unexpectedly increased in April. Recruitment activities accelerated

The number of job vacancy in the United States unexpectedly increased significantly, and recruitment activities also accelerated, indicating that despite the intensified economic uncertainty, employment demand remains stable. Job vacancies rose to 7.39 million in April from 7.2 million revised in March, higher than the median expected value of 7.1 million economists surveyed, according to data released on Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The growth of job openings mainly xmaccount.comes from the private sector, such as professional and xmaccount.commercial services, as well as the medical and social assistance industries. Despite the decline in state and local education sector positions, federal vacancies have increased.

Britain strives to save the steel tariff agreement with the United States before the new steel and aluminum tariffs take effect

British Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds will meet with U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer in an attempt to save an agreement to cancel tariffs on steel exports to the United Kingdom. The agreement is facing unimplementationRisk: The U.S. measures to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50% are scheduled to take effect on Wednesday. If Britain and the United States cannot reach a solution, the so-called economic prosperity agreement announced by the two countries last month may not be able to achieve one of its key xmaccount.components. U.S. President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Kiel Starmer have promoted the deal as a trade deal to reduce tariffs, but so far the deal has not been implemented. Starmer's spokesman Dave Pares told reporters on Tuesday, "When it xmaccount.comes to the implementation of the agreement, this work is underway, indicating that the UK does not know whether its steel industry will face 50% tariffs from the United States on Wednesday.

OECD Chief Economist: US tariff policy severely impacts the world economy

OECD Chief Economist Alvaro Santos Pereira said on the 3rd that the US tariff policy brings uncertainty to global trade and severely impacts the world economy. Pereira said at the press conference of the latest economic outlook report on the same day that the current global economic and trade policy The unprecedented major uncertainty has had a profound impact on various economic indicators. He specifically mentioned that the drastic changes in relevant U.S. policies have led to a lower growth expectation of many economies, including the United States.

Domestic News

The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 2025 bookkeeping discount (32 periods) Treasury bonds

The Ministry of Finance announced that it plans to issue 2025 bookkeeping discount (32 periods) Treasury bonds. The total face value of this period's xmaccount.competitive bidding is 40 billion yuan, and additional bids will be conducted for Class A members. The issuance price of this period of the treasury bond is determined through xmaccount.competitive bidding and issuance at a price lower than the face value. The tender time is 2 025 June 4, 025 from 10:35 am to 11:35 am.

China has established scientific and technological cooperation relations with more than 160 countries and regions

Chen Jiachang, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, introduced at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on the 3rd that China has established scientific and technological cooperation relations with more than 160 countries and regions, and 119 scientific and technological agreements between China and foreign governments have reached 119.

New energy on-grid electricity prices usher in full marketization

From June 1, new energy power such as wind power and photovoltaics will fully enter a new stage of market-oriented pricing. In February this year, the National Development and Reform xmaccount.commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the Notice on Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of New Energy on-grid Electricity Prices to Promote the High-Quality Development of New Energy. The notice proposes to promote the full entry of the on-grid electricity volume of new energy projects into the power market, form prices through market transactions, and establish a supporting sustainable development price settlement mechanism. According to the "new and old" arrangements clearly defined by the two departments, existing and incremental projects are classified and divided into nodes on June 1, 2025. The existing projects put into production before this will be properly connected with the current policies through price difference settlement, and the electricity prices will be implemented according to the current price policy, which will not be higher than the local coal-fired power benchmark price. Incremental projects put into production will be the first to achieve full entry of the on-grid electricity volume to the market.. This means that the income of existing projects will remain relatively stable, while new projects will not enjoy the protection of fixed electricity prices after entering the market.

The above content is all about "[XM Forex]: Oil prices climbed to two-week highs, the US dollar strengthened and suppressed, gold prices fell after hitting four-week highs, and geopolitical tensions boosted". It was carefully xmaccount.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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