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China-US call triggers risk aversion to cool down, non-agricultural data becomes a short-term trend

Wonderful Introduction:

A quiet path will always arouse a relaxed yearning in twists and turns; a huge wave, the thrilling sound can be even more stacked when the tide rises and falls; a story, only with regrets and sorrows can bring about a heart-wrenching desolation; a life, where the ups and downs show the stunning heroism.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The call between China and the United States has caused a cooldown in risk aversion, and non-agricultural data has become a short-term weather vane." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Macro

The gold market trend was ups and downs on Thursday. In the morning, silver broke through the $35 mark, hitting a 13-year high. This rise strongly drove the gold price to rise above $3,400/ounce, reaching a maximum of $3,403.28/ounce. However, Trump spoke with President Xi Jinping on the same day, sending a signal that the trade tensions eased, causing spot gold to close down 0.6%.

The call on June 5 attracted much attention from the global financial market, and the market interpreted it as the thawing of trade tensions, and the attractiveness of gold safe-haven is weakened. Despite this, gold has risen by about 28% this year against the backdrop of global uncertainty, demonstrating strong demand. On the one hand, the easing of the trade situation has caused the market to have optimistic expectations for Sino-US trade negotiations, causing gold prices to fall; on the other hand, data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that the number of initial unemployment claims increased last week, workers' productivity decreased and labor costs increased, coupled with Trump's tariff policy increasing corporate costs, triggering market concerns about the economic outlook and providing potential support for gold. In addition, silver jumped 3.3%, reaching its highest level since February 2012. Its industrial demand and a decline in gold-silver ratio have brought auxiliary momentum to the long-term trend of gold. The upcoming US non-farm employment report will directly affect the trend of gold prices and become the focus of market attention.

Dollar Index

In terms of the performance of the US dollar index, the US dollar index showed a downward trend on Thursday. The price of the US dollar index rose to 98.92 on the day, and fell to 98.321 at the lowest, and finally closed at 98.716. Review of Thursday's market performance, price during the morning sessionThe short-term correction was first raised, and then it was under pressure and fell again after approaching four hours of resistance. After the US session, the price bottomed out and rebounded rapidly, and the price decline was poorly continued. Although the negative line finally ended, the closing lead was longer. At present, it is expected to challenge the daily resistance in the future. Focus on whether non-agricultural data can stabilize the daily resistance position.

From a multi-cycle analysis, the price is suppressed in the 101.10 area resistance at the weekly level, so from a medium-term perspective, the trend of the US dollar index will be more bearish. At the daily level, the key price resistance position is at 99.30 as time goes by. Currently, the price continues to be under pressure in the daily resistance linear line, so it is still treated as short-term. At the same time, the price in the four-hour upper end has remained at a four-hour key position, so the four-hour key position is the key to short-term. At present, the focus is on the early low point of 98 below, while the focus is on the daily resistance position of 99.30 above. Today's non-agricultural data need to pay attention to market testing daily resistance and follow-up gains and losses.

The US dollar index held more than 98.60-70 yesterday, defending US$10, targeting 99.30-99.80 (continued after breaking)

Gold

In terms of gold, the overall price of gold showed a surge and a decline on Thursday. The price rose to the highest point of 3403.36 on the day, and fell to the lowest point of 3339.39 and closed at 3352.56 on the day. Regarding Thursday, gold prices fluctuated and under pressure during the early trading session, and then the price stopped after reaching the four-hour support position of 3260. The European session rose strongly and then hit a high point in recent weeks. However, the US session was under pressure and fell below the four-hour support position again, and the daily line ended with a big negative. For gold at present, we need to focus on the gains and losses of the daily 3330 position. The gains and losses of this position are the key points we need to pay attention to in the future.

From multi-cycle analysis, first observe the monthly rhythm. The price runs at the rhythm in May as the author said, and the final cross state. For June, the long-term watershed is at 2780. From the weekly level, gold prices are supported by the support level in the 3190 area. So from the mid-term perspective, we can continue to maintain a bullish view. The price decline is only a correction in the medium-term rise, and the price will be further under pressure only if it breaks the weekly support. From the daily level, the current daily level is supported in the 3330 area. This position is the key to the trend of the gold band. The price above this position will be treated more often. Only when the downward break will it continue further. Therefore, the gains and losses of this position are the key points that we need to pay attention to. From the four-hour level, you need to pay attention to the resistance in the 3370 area for the time being. This position determines the strength of the short-term trend. If the price does not break within the day, it is expected to be under pressure to test the daily support. If it breaks up, you need to be careful of the price testing of the 3430 area above. At present, the market is in a state of fluctuation in multiple cycles at the same time, soIn operation, you must pay attention to market risks. Today's non-agricultural data focuses on the gains and losses of the daily watershed.

Gold non-agricultural focus on the gains and losses of the 3330 daily line watershed position

Europe and the United States

Europe and the United States generally showed an upward trend on Thursday. The price fell to 1.1404 on the day and rose to 1.1494 on the spot and closed at 1.1443 on the spot. Looking back at the performance of European and American markets on Thursday, the price fluctuated in the short term during the early trading session, and then stopped rising after nearly four hours of support. The price rose rapidly after the US session and then fell back, and finally the positive line ended. However, for the current situation, Europe and the United States need to be careful of price adjustments again, and the subsequent daily watershed gains and losses have become the key.

From a multi-cycle analysis, from the monthly level, Europe and the United States are supported by 1.0850, so long-term bulls are treated. From the weekly level, the price is supported by the 1.1160 area, and continues to look bullish from the perspective of the mid-line. The price decline is temporarily treated as a correction in the mid-line rise. From the daily level, the price broke through the daily resistance on May 19, and at the same time it fell back and pulled up last Thursday, indicating that there is still a lot above the daily support. Over time, the daily support is at 1.1360. The gains and losses of this position determine the key to the band trend. According to the four-hour level, we need to pay attention to the support of the 1.1410-20 range. This position determines the short-term trend direction. Since non-agricultural data will be ushered in tonight, we should pay attention to market risks in operations, and Europe and the United States should focus on the gains and losses of the daily watershed.

Europe and the United States have broken down and looked at the pressure after the 1.1410-20 range is under pressure and pay attention to the gains and losses of the 1.1350-60 position

[Finance data and events that are focused today] Friday, June 6, 2025

①09:45 China's May Caixin Service Industry PMI

②13:45 Switzerland's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate

③17:00 Eurozone April PPI monthly rate

④19:30 US May Challenger Enterprise Layout Number of Employees

⑤20:15 European Central Bank Announces Interest Rate Resolution

⑤ >

⑥20:30 US April trade account

⑦20:30 US initial unemployment claims in the week from the United States to May 31

⑧20:45 European Central Bank Governor Lagarde held a press conference

⑨22:00 US May global supply chain pressure index

⑩22:30 US to May 30 EIA natural gas inventories

00:00 Fed Director Coogler delivered a speech

01:30 the next day on the next day on the economic outlook

01:30 US the next day on the next dayFed Schmid delivered a speech on banking policies

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The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The call between China and the United States has caused a cooldown in risk aversion, and non-agricultural data has become a short-term weather vane". It was carefully xmaccount.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

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