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The finale of non-agricultural economy, gold is squeezed at a high level, who will break first from 3540 to 3560?

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: The finale of non-agricultural economy, the high-level squeeze of gold, who will break first 3540-3560?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Friday (September 5), spot gold XAU/USD remained sideways before the US market, hovering around $3,550/ounce; the previous day, it drew slightly from the historical high of 3,578. The current market chose to wait and see before the release of the US non-farm employment report (20:30), and the volatility converged.

Fundamentals

The overall signal of the US labor market has weakened recently. The number of ADP employment increased by only 54K, lower than expected and far below the previous 106K; JOLTS job openings dropped to 7.18 million, xmaccount.compared with the previous value of 7.36 million. The latest week's initial jobless claims amount was 237K, higher than expected 230K and previous 229K, indicating that labor demand continues to cool down moderately. At the same time, the ISM manufacturing employment index 43.8 and the service industry employment index 46.5 are still in the contraction range. The weakened data portfolio strengthens the narrative of "inflation stickiness slows down while employment becomes colder", and the market's focus shifts from inflation to employment risks.

In terms of interest rate expectations, the market has basically digested the path of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the meeting from September 16 to 17. If the non-agricultural NFP and unemployment rate further weaken today, it is not ruled out that the Fed discusses a one-time rate cut of 50 basis points to hedge against the slowdown in growth. The resonance between yield and exchange rate forms a "soft pad" for gold prices: the US dollar index DXY fell around 98.00, giving up the previous day's gains; the yield on the US Treasury fell across the board - the 10-year hovered at a low of 4.161% in the 30-year period, and the 2-year period, which is most sensitive to policies, fell to 3.590%. Lower nominal and real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding interest-free assets and support gold to stabilize at a high level.

In addition to data and interest rates, macro news is also affecting risk appetite: US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to reduce Japanese automobile import tariffs from 27.5% to 15%, which will take effect seven days later and go back to early August; the initiative is being promoted in parallel with a broader U.S. economic plan, including Japan's $550 billion investment xmaccount.commitment for U.S. infrastructure, energy and semiconductor projects, and an expansion of the purchase of Alaska LNG, with aircraft and parts still being excluded. This plan is regarded as a benefit to the cash flow and capital expenditure of Japanese automakers and related cross-border industrial chains.

At the monetary policy level, Director-elect Stephen Miran emphasized at the Senate hearing that his decision will be based on macro analysis and if confirmed, he will take unpaid leave from the White House adviser position in response to market concerns about the independence of the Fed. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed Chairman Austan Goolsbee said there is still uncertainty about whether interest rate cuts are cut in September, as the two-way impact of tariff changes on inflation and employment needs to be assessed. Overall, the basic marginal impact of gold is relatively neutral and slightly long, and the focus is still on tonight's NFP and wage data: the market consistently expects 75K new non-agricultural income (previous value of 73K), average hourly wages are 0.3% month-on-month, slowing to 3.7% year-on-year, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.3%.

Technical:

Hour K-line shows that gold prices fluctuate and digest after falling from the high point of 3578.29. The latest upward move is at 3560.93 and the decline is encountered; it is currently operating around the middle rail of the Bollinger band 3549.23, with the upper and lower rails being 3559.82 and 3538.64 respectively. The bandwidth narrowing points to "Boletlinger band squeezing", and is in the box-based consolidation market in the short term. If you break through the upper track upward and stand firm effectively, the next resistance will focus on the previous high of 3560.93 and the historical high of 3578.29; if you break down the lower track, first look at the back-positioning of 3511.44, further the previous low of 3470.28.

In terms of momentum, MACD shows DIFF1.62, DEA2.17, and histogram-1.12. The negative column narrows and approaches the zero axis, indicating that the lower action energy is attenuated and direction is waiting for triggering; the relative strength index RSI (14) is around 50.46, a typical neutral range, in line with the price fluctuations around the middle track, reflecting the long-short tug-of-war and lacking trend push. xmaccount.comprehensive price, band, and volume indicators, the short-term tendency is more inclined to the "mean regression-breakthrough waiting" structure. 3540-3560 constitutes the first trading range. Pay attention to the bandwidth changes and whether the K-line entity expands to confirm the direction.

Full market outlook

Bolster scenario: If NFP and salary continue to cool down, yields and the US dollar continue to fall, technically break through the Bollinger upper track at 3559.82 and increase volume, gold prices are expected to try 3560.93 and 3578.29 again. Further upwards will need to rely on broader macro cooperation (such as the downward trend of real interest rates and the policy forward guidance is dove). Under this path, backtesting does not break the support of the middle track and the previous high conversion will be the key to the trend continuation.

Short scenario: If the data is stronger than expected and triggers "9"With a monthly price drop of only 25bp or even waiting and watching, the gold price may fall below 3538.64, pointing to the support test at the 3511.44 line; once this position is lost, sentiment may amplify, and the price is expected to seek a historical hub of 3470.28. At that time, we need to be wary of the typical trend paradigm of "breakdown-pullback-confirmation".

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The finale of non-agricultural economy, gold is squeezed at a high level, who will break first from 3540 to 3560?

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The finale of non-agricultural economy, gold is squeezed at a high level, who will break first from 3540 to 3560?

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