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US CPI data hit in August, and the ECB's September resolution may keep interest rates unchanged
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The US CPI data in August is xmaccount.coming, and the ECB's September resolution may maintain interest rates unchanged." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
XM Forecast: The importance of economic data to be released this week is from high to low: US August CPI data, ECB resolution, and EIA energy monthly report. Next, we will interpret it one by one.
▲XM chart
This Thursday at 20:30, the U.S. Department of Labor will announce the US core CPI annual rate in August without seasonal adjustment, with the previous value of 3.1%, and the expected value remains unchanged. The United States did not adjust its annual CPI rate in August, and was announced at the same time. The previous value was 2.7%, the expected value was 2.9%, and the expected increase was 0.2 percentage points. Since nominal CPI data is affected by energy and fresh food prices, market participants value core CPI data more. If the latest annual value of the core CPI rate is consistent with expectations, it means that the United States' price list in August is stable and is not expected to change the Fed's expectation of restarting interest rate cuts in September. In August, U.S. crude oil prices fell 7.58%, reaching a low of $61.45 per barrel. The price of US crude oil is highly resonant with the US CPI data. Based on this, it is inferred that the annual rate of core CPI in August is likely to be lower than the previous value. Last Sunday, OPEC+ announced after a video conference that it would add about 137,000 barrels of oil production per day and would continue this pace of production increase until September next year. As OPEC increases production, U.S. crude oil prices may continue to fall, and the core CPI annual rate data in the United States may continue to decline. This will increase expectations of the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate cuts, which is negative for the US dollar index.
▲XM chart
This Thursday at 20:15, the ECB will announce the results of the September interest rate resolution, and the mainstream expectation is that it will keep the three benchmark interest rates unchanged. According to economic data, the unemployment rate in the euro zone was 6.2% in July, down for two consecutive months. The core inflation rate in the euro zone remained at a low level of 2.3% for four consecutive months. The labor market and inflation rate both performed well, and the urgency of the ECB to cut interest rates is not high. However, in terms of economic totality, the annual GDP growth rate in the euro zone in the second quarter was 0.1%, far lower than The previous value is 0.6%, and the macro economy is still growing weak. In addition, the Federal Reserve may restart interest rate cuts on the September interest rate resolution. The ECB often follows the Federal Reserve's monetary policy operation, so the possibility of the ECB's September resolution announcing a rate cut still exists. EURUSD is at a relatively high level in the past three years, and the trend is relatively large. If the ECB announces keeping interest rates unchanged, the appreciation rate of the euro will expand. Even if the interest rate cut is unexpected, the euro may still maintain its current rise because the market pays more attention to the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut.
This Wednesday, at 0:00, EIA will release its monthly short-term energy outlook report, focusing on the forecasts of crude oil demand growth and price trends in the report. In the short-term energy outlook report in August, EIA expects Brent crude oil to fall sharply, with a low of $58. The reason for the pessimistic forecast is that oil inventories increase after OPEC+ member states decide to accelerate the pace of production increase. Last Sunday, OPEC+ The new food conference shows that the pace of production increase has further accelerated, with about 137,000 barrels of oil production per day. Based on this, EIA may be more pessimistic about the future oil price trend in its September report. The international topics that EIA is most concerned about in August are Trump tariffs, conflicts between Israel and Iran, and expansion of non-OPEC supply quotas. As August, factors affecting crude oil demand and prices have changed. India's purchase of Russian oil and the US debt is in sudden The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become the focus of market attention. How EIA views these hot topics, and the judgment of the final impact of these events determines the impact of the report on U.S. crude oil.
XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. The above content only represents the personal views of analysts and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the only reference basis. In different periods, analysts' views may change, and the update will not be notified separately.
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