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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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Non-farm data collapses, and the Fed's interest rate cut in September is a foregone conclusion
Wonderful introduction:
Life needs a smile. When you meet friends and relatives, you can give them a smile, which can inspire people's hearts and enhance friendship. When you receive help from strangers, you will feel xmaccount.comfortable with both parties; if you give yourself a smile, life will be better!
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Non-agricultural data collapses, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September is almost a foregone conclusion." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
XM: Non-agricultural data collapsed, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September is almost a foregone conclusion
XM Exchange Review: According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, the non-agricultural employment population in the United States after the quarterly adjustment in August was 22,000, far lower than the previous value of 79,000 and lower than the expected value of 75,000. The U.S. unemployment rate in August was 4.3%, higher than the previous value of 4.2%. On the day of data release, the US dollar index fell from a high of 98.27 to a low of 97.4 points.
▲XM chart
According to historical data, the number of new non-agricultural employment in the United States has basically remained above 100,000 people before 2025. Although data with less than 100,000 people occasionally appear, such as 44,000 in October 2024 and 85,000 in March 2023, after these lower data appear, the data will rise rapidly in the following months. Short-term poor data will not change the prosperity of the U.S. labor market.
However, since 2025, the number of new non-farm employment in the United States has often fallen below 100,000, and the value is extremely low. The 22,000 people in August were already low to shock the market, but the new non-agricultural population fell to a negative value in June this year, at -13,000, and in May it also saw a value below 20,000. If you only consider employment data, you can infer that the US macroeconomic has fallen into recession and the signs of recession are already very obvious.
The reason for the collapse of the US labor market is mainstream analysts believe that it is the policy of US President Trump to deport illegal immigration. 202Five years ago, the US labor market added new jobs, most of which were contributed by illegal immigration. Now, Trump has deported hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants, which will naturally lead to a serious decline in the new labor population in the labor market.
The U.S. unemployment rate in August was 4.3%, still below the 5% warning line. The unemployment rate data mainly measures American workers, so they are not affected by Trump's immigration policy. Once the U.S. unemployment rate quickly approaches 5% in the future, expectations of a U.S. macro-recession will be confirmed.
The Federal Reserve has two tasks, namely, to ensure employment and maintain price stability. Ensuring employment is more important than maintaining price stability. The current job market is showing signs of worsening. Although prices are still at a relatively high level, the Federal Reserve has to restart interest rate cuts. On September 18, the Federal Reserve will announce the results of the latest interest rate resolution. Currently, mainstream expectations believe that a 25 basis point cut may be a foregone conclusion.
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Technical analysis shows that at the daily level, the US dollar index is in a narrow range of oscillation after bottoming out and rebounding. The red line in the figure is the upper limit of the oscillation range. In more than a month, there has been no sign of effective rise and breaking the resistance line. On the contrary, the bottom of the oscillation range is testing a breakthrough. Last Friday and Monday, the US dollar index closed continuously, continuing its decline today, with the lowest point reaching 97.23 points. The lower limit of the previous oscillation range was about 97.5 points. If the closing of today is maintained at a negative K-line state, the lower limit will be effectively broken. According to the news, before the Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates next week, it will be difficult for the US dollar index to rebound, and the possibility of being suppressed by expectations of interest rate cuts is high.
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