French political arena changes, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on September 10

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major U.S. stock index futures rose and fell mixed, Dow futures fell 0.13%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.39%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.37%. The German DAX index rose 0.01%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.21%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.44%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.26%.

2. Interpretation of market news

French political arena is changing, market sentiment bottoms out and rebounds

⑴ France ushered in a new prime minister, market expectations for stability have increased significantly, and the cost of European credit default swaps decreased accordingly. ⑵ S&P Global Market Finance Data shows that the iTraxxEurope Crossover Euro junk bond credit default swap index fell 2 basis points, with the latest 259 basis points, indicating that investors' concerns about European credit risks have eased. ⑶ Sebastian Le Corni's new prime minister is seen as a positive signal that prompts the market to reassess risk appetite after experiencing political turmoil.

The British political situation is crucial to the pound

Ebury strategist Matthew Ryan said in a report that British politics is more likely to determine the performance of the pound than upcoming economic data. "At present, we attach more importance to Britain's political development than macroeconomic development." He said that the cabinet restructuring of British Prime Minister Stamer did not have much impact on the pound, mainly because British Chancellor Reeves retained his position as Finance Minister. HoweverHe said investors are unlikely to remain calm until the fall budget is released on November 26, and tax increases are almost certain.

Geopolitical risks rise, European gas prices rise

After Israel attacked Hamas' leadership in Qatar, geopolitical risks intensified, and European gas prices rose in the late early session. The benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas price rose 0.7% to €33.17 per megawatt-hour, with a cumulative increase of more than 3% this week. "While Qatar exports large amounts of LNG to Asia, it is also a major supplier to Europe," said analysts at ANZ Bank. "Any disruption could affect global prices, especially in the region only a few weeks before the start of the heating season." Meanwhile, the EU is reportedly investigating new sanctions on Russian banks and energy xmaccount.companies.

Double warning of data and ruling: market sentiment is hidden undercurrent

⑴ Today's market focus is on the upcoming U.S. producer price index (PPI) and the $39 billion 10-year Treasury bond auction. Institutions expect the core PPI annual rate to drop from 3.7% to 3.6% or 3.5%, but the market is concerned about the lagging impact of Trump's tariff remarks on xmaccount.commodity inflation, especially whether inflation in the service industry can remain stable. If the data shows stickiness or rebound, it may push up Treasury bond yields. ⑵ It is worth noting that the U.S. Supreme Court has accepted a request for a quick trial on Trump's tariff legality, and the hearing is scheduled to be held in November, which means that the "risk aversion" season that usually occurs in October may continue into November. ⑶ Market sentiment seems to be cautious in the medium and long term, which is specifically reflected in tactical short selling suggestions for two-year and ten-year treasury bonds, and tend to increase positions when ten-year treasury bonds strengthen. ⑷ Overall, the market is actively digesting the upcoming data and event risks, and paying particular attention to the performance of the "super core" part of the inflation data, which is seen as a key factor affecting the Fed's future path to rate cuts.

Inflation is shrouded in the haze, can the euro hold its position?

⑴ The market has basically digested the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting on September 16-17. Currently, the bet on a 25 basis point rate cut has reached 88.2%, and there is an 11.8% chance that a 50 basis point rate cut is expected. Previous remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hall seminar clearly stated that he would adjust his policy position when the policy is in a restrictive area. ⑵ Trump’s tariff rhetoric poses upside risks to inflation, while his immigration policies may weaken the labor market, putting the Fed in a dilemma. The market will closely monitor the overall and core data of the US Producer Price Index (PPI). If the data is higher than expected, it may boost US dollar demand and reduce the expectation of interest rate cuts; otherwise, weak data will suppress the US dollar and increase the bet on interest rate cuts. ⑶The current trading price of the euro/dollar is above the 1.1700 mark. Although the US dollar has short-term support, its overall action potential is limited. Despite the recent fluctuations in the EUR/USD, the daily chart shows that it still maintains "highs rise and lows rise"The trend indicates upward risk. A short-term pullback may occur, with initial support around 1.1700. If it falls below this support, it may test the 1.1650 area and may further look to 1.1600-1.1610.

Marring interest rates hit an 11-month low, and the market is looking forward to a wave of interest rate cuts

⑴ Latest data show that the interest rate for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loan contract has dropped to 6.49%, the lowest level since October last year, and a cumulative decline of 60 basis points from mid-January. ⑵The total amount of mortgage loan applications has therefore rebounded significantly. Last week, the application index rose 9.2%, reaching a high in more than three years. The refinancing application index soared by 12.2%, a record high in the past year, indicating that the market's expectations of a decline in interest rates are gradually transforming into actual actions. ⑶ Although the real estate market has been sluggish due to high borrowing costs and property prices, the recent increase in housing supply, slowing price increases and expected interest rate cuts indicate that the industry may have passed the toughest period. ⑷ The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will start a cycle of interest rate cuts at next week's meeting after the recent weak employment data and concerns about inflationary pressure ease, which will also support the decline in bond yields to a certain extent.

The volume of mortgage applications in the United States rebounded significantly month-on-month

⑴ Data from the American Mortgage Banking Association shows that as of 20:00 on September 6, Beijing time, the volume of mortgage applications in the United States increased by 9.2% month-on-month, xmaccount.completely regaining the previous three consecutive weeks of decline. ⑵This rebound is closely related to the sharp drop in the benchmark mortgage interest rate by 15 basis points, which has fallen to its lowest level in the past year. ⑶ The reason is that a series of weak labor market data have caused a sharp decline in long-term Treasury bond yields. ⑷ The number of refinancing loan applications surged by 12.2% month-on-month, the highest level in a year. This type of application is more sensitive to short-term interest rate changes. ⑸ The number of mortgage loan applications for home purchases increased by 6.6% month-on-month, and also showed a recovery trend.

Treasury yields hovered on the eve of inflation data, and market sentiment was cautious

⑴The market is waiting for two key inflation data, the producer price index (PPI) released on Wednesday and the consumer price index (CPI) released on Thursday. Before that, U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, but the gains were controlled and far from hitting the recent high. ⑵ Institutional analysts pointed out that there is uncertainty among market participants about the upcoming inflation data results, and different results may trigger xmaccount.completely different market reactions. ⑶ If inflation data is lower than expected, it may prompt the market to increase expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts and is expected to lower Treasury bond yields. ⑷On the contrary, if the inflation data is higher than expected, the opposite effect may have. ⑸ Currently, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 0.8 basis points to 3.549%; the ten-year Treasury yield rose 1.9 basis points to 4.092%; the thirty-year Treasury yield rose 3.1 basis points to 4.747%.

Georges are tight, oil prices fluctuate, and the price spread of crude oil in the Middle East quietly differentiates!

⑴ On Wednesday, geopolitical events occurred frequently, including the escalation of conflict in the Middle East and the shooting down of Russian drones by European countries, which injected uncertainty into the crude oil market. ⑵ Under this background, the premiums of Oman and Dubai crude oil have both increased, reflecting that the market's demand for some Middle East benchmark crude oil is still there. ⑶ Data shows that Dubai crude oil has risen to $3.33 per barrel, up 9 cents from the previous trading day. ⑷ However, the premium of Murban crude oil has fallen slightly, indicating that market pricing of crude oil varieties in different regions is undergoing differentiation. ⑸ Although oil prices are boosted by risk aversion, market concerns about oversupply of crude oil still exist, which limits the further upside potential of oil prices. ⑹This market pattern with intertwined long and short factors requires traders to pay close attention to the evolution of geopolitical situations and the dynamic changes in supply and demand fundamentals.

German "new entrepreneurship policy" is implemented: 8 billion euros in taxes "slimming down" and seize the technological highland!

⑴ The German government recently announced a draft law aimed at boosting the development of start-ups and small and medium-sized enterprises, and obtained cabinet approval on Wednesday. ⑵ The draft focuses on optimizing the tax framework for venture capital and initial public offerings (IPOs), and considers allowing the use of English prospectus to lower bureaucratic thresholds and enhance Germany's international xmaccount.competitiveness as the IPO market. ⑶ Data shows that these measures are expected to lead to a tax gap of 4.8 billion euros in 2026 and a gap of 5.7 billion to 6.1 billion euros per year between 2027 and 2030, reflecting the government's determination to "give concessions" to attract investment and promote growth. ⑷ This move is not only aimed at inspiring innovation and private investment, but also includes tax benefits for xmaccount.commuters and the catering industry, which has reduced the latter from 19% to 7% VAT, showing its strategic considerations for promoting economic diversification, but the specific effect still depends on market conditions and corporate decisions.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1693, a drop of 0.13%. Before New York, the price of (Euro-USD) fell on the last trading day as the pair tried to get positive momentum that could help it recover and rise again, relying on EMA50 support, bullish trends dominate in the short term and traded along a slash, and in addition, after reaching oversold levels, a positive divergence was formed on (RSI) as positive signals emerged.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3533, an increase of 0.04%. Before New York, the (GBPUSD) price rose in recent day trading after falling in yesterday's trading due to a stable level of key resistance at 1.3585, trying to gain bullish momentum that could help it break through that resistance and continue to fall,By the (RSI) indicator enters an oversold level, indicating a positive divergence, indicating a weakening of bearish factors and the beginning of gaining bullish momentum, while positive pressure continues to exist when its trading is above the EMA50 and trades in parallel with the bias line under the short-term bullish trend.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3648.79, an increase of 0.62%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, after a positive divergence on the (RSI), gold prices expanded their gains in the last intraday trading after reaching the oversold level, supported by positive signals from (RSI), and the main bullish trend xmaccount.completely dominates on a short-term basis, and its trading follows the supportive slash of the trend.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 41.106, an increase of 0.64%. Before New York, the (silver) price rose on the last trading day, ready to attack the key resistance of $41.45, as positive pressure from trading above the EMA50 continues and dominated by major bullish trends on a short-term basis and trading along supportive slashes, in addition, positive signals appear on (RSI) after reaching oversold levels.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 63.380, an increase of 1.21%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, crude oil prices experienced mixed trading at the last day level, supported by positive signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI); on the other hand, the stability of the key resistance level of $62.85 suppressed the price rebound, while the price continued to be below the 50-day index moving average, which was dominated by the main downward trend in the short term, and negative pressure still exists.

4. Institutional View

Fitch: Raising global economic growth expectations The U.S. economy slowed down

Fitch raised its global GDP growth expectations on Tuesday, while pointing out a slowdown in the U.S. economy and job market. However, global economic growth is expected to slow down “significantly” this year xmaccount.compared to last year’s data. Global economic growth rate is expected to drop to 2.4% this year from 2.9% last year and is expected to slow further to 2.3% next year and will grow by 2.6% by 2027. In addition, Fitch said uncertainty in U.S. tariff policy has declined after a series of statements. However, chief economist Brian Coulton noted: "A clearer perception of U.S. tariff hikes do not change the fact that tariffs remain huge and will weaken global growth. Signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy are now in hard data, not just sentiment surveys." Fitch noted that the rise in inflation caused by the tariff increase was "moderate" but is expected to accelerate later this year. "Higher inflation will curb real wage growth and put pressure on U.S. consumer spending, which has slowed significantly in 2025." At the same time, U.S. job growth has slowed "significantly" and weaker job markets should convince the Fed to cut interest rates faster than previously expected. Fitch currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September and December meetings and three more next year.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The changing situation in the French political arena, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on September 10". It was carefully xmaccount.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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