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Maintaining the status quo and its impact on USD/JPY

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A person's happiness may be false, and a group of people's happiness cannot tell whether it is true or false. They squandered their youth and wished they could burn it all, and that posture was like a carnival before the end of the world.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: Maintaining the status quo and its impact on the US dollar/Japanese yen". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

The market generally expects that the Bank of Japan will maintain the policy interest rate at 0.5% at its meeting on September 19, 2025. Affected by Japan's domestic political uncertainty and international trade challenges, the future economic prospects are still cautious.

The dollar-JPY exchange rate will be mainly affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. Although the Bank of Japan's meeting will also have an impact, its importance may be relatively low. However, if Ueda and the male governor make unexpected remarks, it may trigger a sharp appreciation of the yen and break through the current trading range of 147 to 149.

Expected Bank of Japan policy resolution: Maintain the status quo

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to maintain interest rates at 0.5% this week, which has not changed since January. Adopting this cautious "waiting and watching" attitude is mainly based on the following key reasons.

First of all, there is political uncertainty in Japan, and the central bank hopes to avoid any sudden policy adjustments that may aggravate economic instability. Secondly, the Bank of Japan is still evaluating the xmaccount.comprehensive impact of the New US-Japan trade agreement and U.S. tariffs, which are impacting Japan's exports.

The following figure is a distribution chart of the members of the Bank of Japan’s board of directors on their policy stance. From left to right are: Dove, Dovish, Centrist, Hawkish, Hawk.

It is worth noting that although Japan's inflation is high and the growth rate exceeds wage growth, the central bank still puts economic stability above inflation control. This divergence between central bank policies and the reality of domestic inflation may cause market problems in the future.

Foresight monetary policy: Outlook after September

Market forecastThe Bank of Japan will keep interest rates unchanged in September but believes it will start a rate hike soon. Many traders believe that there is a high possibility of rate hikes by the end of 2025, and there may be more rate hikes by the middle of next year.

Judging from the implicit interest rates shown by data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the market expects that the Bank of Japan will cut interest rates by about 50 basis points by December 2026. This range seems small, but we need to know that we are discussing the Bank of Japan.

As the meeting will not release new economic forecasts, the market response will be entirely determined by President Ueda and Male Presidents’ statements at the press conference.

The Bank of Japan is known for its vague xmaccount.communication. If President Ueda continues to maintain his vague statement, the market may respond in a dull manner. But if he sends an unexpected and clear signal about future interest rate hikes, it will confirm the market's aggressive expectations. Therefore, its remarks may cause large and sudden fluctuations in the market.

Double central bank catalytic factors: impact on the US dollar/JPY

The US dollar-JPY exchange rate is mainly driven by the Federal Reserve's policies. When investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates, the dollar will usually depreciate against the yen. This is particularly critical this week, as the Fed has implemented a rate cut as expected.

The market generally expects the United States to cut interest rates, and Japan will eventually raise interest rates, which may lead to weakening of the US dollar against the yen. Although the Bank of Japan’s resolution is also important, its impact will be largely constrained by the Fed’s actions – the Fed’s influence on the currency pair is much stronger.

In view of market expectations, in addition to the 25 basis points interest rate cut this week, the Federal Reserve will cut another 50 basis points before the end of the year, so in the medium term, the yen is expected to rise.

Dollar/JPY Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY has shown signs of a bull market rebound, but the potential impact of interest rate spreads may play a role.

On the weekly chart, the long-term downward trend line has been broken before, and since then, the US dollar/JPY has been trapped in the range of 145.00 to 150.00, and after a brief surge, it faces rapid selling pressure.

In addition, an uptrend line extends from the April low, which is located directly below the 140.00 mark.

On the daily chart, the K-line closed in the hammer line pattern on Wednesday, and achieved support rebound at the upward trend line and the 100-day moving average of 146.20.

The real-time resistance level is the 50-day moving average (at 147.67), and the 200-day moving average (148.61) after breaking through will become the next focus.

If the upward trend line is broken, it may push the exchange rate toward the 145.00 mark, and then the swing low of 143.33 will enter the field of view.

The above content is all about "[XM Forex Platform]: Maintaining the status quo and its impact on the US dollar/JPY". It was carefully xmaccount.compiled and edited by the XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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market analysis

Maintaining the status quo and its impact on USD/JPY

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

Maintaining the status quo and its impact on USD/JPY

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason