The performance of US mortgage loan applications is differentiated, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 2

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major stock index futures fell, with Dow futures mainly blue-chip stocks falling 0.43%; S&P 500 futures falling 0.52%; and Nasdaq 100 futures mainly technology stocks falling 0.65%. European stock markets fell, with the German DAX index falling 1.30%; the French CAC40 index falling 0.68%; and the UK FTSE 100 index falling 0.86%.

2. Market news interpretation

U.S. mortgage loan applications performed differentiated, and interest rates fell slightly

① As of the week ended March 28, mortgage loan applications performed differentiated, with home purchase activities increasing for the fifth consecutive week, while refinancing activities decreased for the third consecutive week. ② The xmaccount.comprehensive market index of the American Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) fell 1.6% to 243.6. The refinancing index fell 5.6% to 710.4, offsetting a 1.5% increase in the home purchase index, which rose to 158.2. ③The home purchase index has grown by 19.5% since the week of February 21, thanks in part to the start of the spring home purchase season and the decline in interest rates from mid-January highs. xmaccount.compared with the same period last year, the home purchase index increased by 8.7%. ④ By type, the traditional home purchase index rose 2.8% to 202.2, while the government home purchase index fell 1.8% to 98.2. The average home purchase loan scale rose 1.1% month-on-month to $447,500, but is still below the survey high of $460,800 set in early March. ⑤ In terms of refinancing, since most borrowers have already enjoyed mortgage loans with lower interest rates, the refinancing application will change the interest rate.Very sensitive. Interest rates have been fluctuating narrowly since late February. ⑥ In the refinancing index, the traditional refinancing index fell by 5.2% to 530.7, and the government refinancing index fell by 6.2% to 1649.6. The proportion of refinancing applications in total fell from 40.4% to 38.6%. ⑦ In terms of mortgage loan interest rates, the 30-year fixed interest rate and large-scale loan interest rates both fell by 1 basis point, to 6.70% and 6.76%, respectively, down 21 basis points and 30 basis points respectively xmaccount.compared with the same period last year. ⑧ Since late February, the 30-year fixed interest rate has fluctuated between 6.67% and 6.73%, and the interest rate of large loans has fluctuated between 6.68% and 6.83%. ⑨The government’s housing purchase and refinancing applications both declined, resulting in the Federal Housing Administration (FHA)’s share of total applications from 16.5% to 15.8%, and the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA)’s share from 14.5% to 14.4%. ⑩ Adjustable interest rate mortgages (ARM) rose from 6.3% to 6.5%, although the 5/1 mixed ARM rate rose by 15 basis points to 6.04%, and the spread with the 30-year fixed interest rate and large loan interest rate narrowed to 66 basis points and 72 basis points, respectively.

UBS lowers its 10-year German Treasury yield target

UBS Global Research Analyst Reinout DeBock said in a report that in terms of xmaccount.combined risks, German Treasury yields will fall, especially if the U.S. tariffs on EU imported goods exceed 10%. In view of this view, UBS lowered its target interest rate on its 10-year German Treasury bonds from 2.70% to 2.60%. In this transaction, UBS also lowered its stop loss level from 3.05% to 2.80%. UBS went long on March 14 with a yield of 2.90%, believing that tariff risk was underestimated.

Maersk expects the U.S. economy to continue to grow, but warns of rising uncertainty

① Danish shipping xmaccount.company Maersk said on Wednesday that despite strong U.S. demand, Trump's tariff plan could cast a shadow on the outlook. ②Maersk's global market outlook report points out that US economic growth continues, but geopolitical turmoil increases uncertainty. ③Trump's new tariff plan has disturbed the shipping industry, as the trade war may curb transportation demand. ④Maersk warns that imminent U.S. tariffs could curb global trade flows, and xmaccount.companies are monitoring early signs of slowing global supply chains. ⑤Maersk said that the uncertainty of tariffs has led to a shift in inventory strategies, and some xmaccount.companies accelerate imports and increase storage space. ⑥ The xmaccount.company stressed that the decline in US consumer confidence for four consecutive months is a worrying issue, which may trigger cautious consumption and a ripple effect.

The Norwegian Central Bank will not adjust its interest rates for the time being, and the Kroner is expected to remain stable

① As expected, the Norwegian Central Bank kept its policy interest rate unchanged last week. The new interest rate path shows that interest rate cuts are expected to be slower and smaller by the end of 2027. ② The Norwegian Central Bank said that due to rising inflation and higher than expected, premature interest rate cuts may lead to continued rapid price increases. Therefore, the central bank responded to high inflation at the beginning of the year and kept interest rates unchanged. ③ The overall interest rate path is about 25 basis points higher than before. The Norwegian Central Bank believes that there is significant uncertainty in trade conflicts and rising tariffs, and its impact on prices and growth can only be estimated and difficult to predict. ④ Import inflation may rise, but weakening global demand and a stronger Krona may alleviate price pressure. ⑤ Analysts expect Norwegian central bank will not consider cutting interest rates until at least June when it releases a new monetary policy report, which will have more inflation data and economic impact information of trade conflicts. ⑥The Kroner is expected to remain stable in the xmaccount.coming months and defend its gains, possibly even a slight upward trend.

Ukrainian drone attacks have restricted oil exports from the Caspian pipeline

① The Kremlin said on Wednesday that after Ukrainian drone attacked the Caspian oil pipeline infrastructure, Russia imposed restrictions on the Black Sea oil exports of the pipeline. ② After a raid inspection by Russian transport watchdog, the two mooring sites at the Black Sea Pier were ordered to close their operations to handle Kazakhstan oil exports drawn by large U.S. xmaccount.companies Chevron and ExxonMobil.

The Italian economic outlook is affected by US tariffs

① The Italian Federation of Industrialists has lowered its economic growth forecast, and it expects Italy's GDP to grow by 0.6% in 2025, only half of the government's official forecast of 1.2%, and also lower than the Federation's estimated growth rate of 0.9% in October. ② The Federation predicts that the GDP growth rate will rebound to 1% in 2026, and Italy's GDP will both increase slightly by 0.7% in 2024 and 2023. ③ Its forecast includes the impact of the US announced steel and aluminum tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, but does not reflect the impact of the escalation of the trade war. ④ If the United States imposes a permanent tariff of 25% on all imported goods, the tariffs on China will be raised to 60%, and countries will take retaliatory measures, Italy's GDP growth rate will drop to around 0.2% in 2025 and its economic growth will be around 0.3% in 2026. ⑤Pharmaceuticals, automobiles and other means of transportation and machinery are the industrial fields with the highest dependence on the United States, and the United States is Italy's second largest export market.

The Myanmar earthquake brings new challenges to the Thai economy

① The recent earthquake in Myanmar has brought new difficulties to the Thai economy, and analysts say it may put pressure on Thailand's tourism and real estate industries. ② The earthquake has caused people to worry about the short-term impact of tourism and housing demand. Thailand's economy is already fragile and is slowly recovering from its growth momentum. ③ Some analysts have lowered their growth expectations in Thailand. The slowdown in tourism may exacerbate economic difficulties, which is a key pillar of Thailand's economic growth and employment. ④ According to ThailandAccording to Hotel Association data, the number of tourists visits may drop by 10% to 15% or even more in the next two weeks, and Mitsubishi UFB lowered Thailand's growth forecast for 2025 from 2.8% to 2.2%. ⑤ The collapse of skyscrapers under construction in Bangkok may curb activity in the real estate industry, and CGS International economists estimate that the economic impact accounts for about 0.2% of Thailand's GDP. ⑥ Citi analysts said the earthquake could lead to delays in transfers of condominiums, weakening demand for new properties. ⑦ Nomura economists believe that if earthquakes no longer occur, the number of tourists should recover in a V-shaped manner. Economist at OCBC said reconstruction and recovery work may support government spending. ⑧Malayan Bank economists say home buyers' hesitation may be temporary, and the impact of the earthquake may make the Bank of Thailand tend to cut interest rates. ⑨ In addition to the earthquake, Trump's tariff remarks also pose greater concerns for Thailand's economy, which may disrupt Asian trade, and Thailand's economic growth expectations may be further lowered.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.0801, an increase of 0.08%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the EUR/USD price remained narrowly on the day level, affected by the negative pressure of trading below the 50 candlestick, and was dominated by the downward correction trend, because the price was traded within the price channel, and after reaching the oversold level, the stochastic indicator showed a positive signal.

GBP/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.2944, an increase of 0.16%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the GBP/USD price fell slightly in recent intraday trading, after a trading day marked by side trading. The price was subject to continued negative pressure due to trading below the 50 candle SMA. Although the price was hurt by breaking through the main uptrend line in the short term, it was affected by a series of positive signals from the stochastic indicators, which brought some positive momentum to the price, which helped the price stabilize and resist these negative pressures.

Spot gold: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3119.43, an increase of 0.17%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, gold prices trade sideways at the intraday level while trying to gather positive momentum to push prices to new record highs, with major uptrends dominating as prices trade along the subtrend line in the short term, with the stochastic signaling after reaching oversold levels.

Spot silver: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 33.733, an increase of 0.20%. Before the New York market, silver prices rose in the latest intraday trading, driven by trading along the upward trend line. Because the trading is above the 50 candlestick and the positive signal of the stochastic indicators, there is still positive pressure.

Crude Oil Market: As of 20:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 70.810, a drop of 0.55%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, U.S. crude oil prices turned from an early decline to a moderate rise in recent intraday trading as it sought a bottom rebound and helped it collect the necessary positive rebound momentum, dominating the upward correction trend in the short term, while stochastic indicators began to form a positive divergence, sending positive signals.

4. Institutional View

Mitsubishi UF: Exchange rate trends show that the market feels "too good" about Trump tariffs

Mitsubishi UF analyst Derek Halpenny said the Canadian dollar, as well as risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar, Norwegian krone and Swedish krone, showed that the market was xmaccount.complacent about the tariffs. These currencies performed better on Tuesday than others, which hardly illustrates concerns about tariffs and the rise in global trade disruption risks. We believe that financial markets underestimate the scale of tariff actions. Risk currencies with higher risk may fall if the United States launches a more radical tariff plan than the market is concerned.

< h4>RCC: The tariffs announced by the United States are expected to be xmaccount.comprehensive

RBC Global Asset Management Group expects that in addition to the measures already announced, U.S. President Trump will also announce a xmaccount.comprehensive increase in tariffs. Andrzej Skiba, head of the U.S. fixed income division of asset management group BlueBay, said other countries may follow suit and take a wave of retaliatory measures. Even if individual steps can be reversed later through concessions, we believe most steps will remain the same. The benchmark scenario for this asset management xmaccount.company envisions an average tariff rate of 10%, and the burden on some countries and industries is much higher.

The above is about "【XM Group]: The performance of mortgage loan applications in the United States is differentiated. The entire content of the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 2 was carefully xmaccount.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your transaction! Thank you for your support!

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