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CATEGORIES
market news
Position sentiment reverses, palm oil approaches direction selection window
Wonderful introduction:
A secluded path, with its twists and turns, will always arouse a refreshing yearning; a huge wave will make a thrilling sound when the tide rises and falls; a story, regretful and sad, only has the desolation of the heart; a life, with ups and downs, becomes shockingly heroic.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market xmaccount.commentary]: Position sentiment reverses, palm oil approaches the direction selection window." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Friday (October 17), the Malaysian palm oil futures market fell under pressure, ending the previous two consecutive weeks of rebound. As of the close, the benchmark January contract FCPOc3 closed at 4,514 ringgit/ton, a single-day decrease of 0.13%, and a cumulative decrease of 0.68% for the whole week. Despite attempts to make an upward move during the session, the weak performance of the crude oil market has always suppressed market sentiment.
Crude oil drag and xmaccount.competitive oil differentiation
International crude oil prices are expected to fall by about 3% this week, becoming a key negative factor for the palm oil market. Well-known institutions predict that the global crude oil supply glut may expand. Coupled with the disturbance of geopolitical events, the weakening of crude oil directly weakens the attractiveness of palm oil as a biodiesel raw material. David Ng, a proprietary trader at Kuala Lumpur trading xmaccount.company IcebergX, pointed out: "The weakness of crude oil futures continues to affect the market mentality, and the energy attributes of palm oil are temporarily suppressed."
At the same time, the trends of xmaccount.competitive vegetable oils have diverged. The main soybean oil contract on the Dalian xmaccount.commodity Exchange edged up 0.05%, while the palm oil contract fell 0.19%; soybean oil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 0.49%. This differentiation reflects the xmaccount.complex pattern of the global vegetable oil market - although palm oil is subject to the energy sector, some food demand still supports related oil varieties.
New developments in exchange rate policy and supply and demand
The trading currency ringgit rose slightly by 0.02% against the US dollar. Although the amplitude was limited, it objectively increased the procurement costs of overseas buyers. On the other hand, the Indian government announced an increase in the basic import prices of all vegetable oils. This policy may have a potential impact on the future import pace.
Indonesia has released long-term positive signals. Edi Wibowo, an official at the country's Ministry of Energy, revealed that he is considering implementing a 1% sustainable aviation fuel blending plan on international flights from Jakarta and Bali from 2026. If implemented, this move will further expand the application space of palm oil in the field of aviation biofuels. However, given the long implementation time, the boost to the current market will be limited.
Institutional view: Short-term pressure and long-term potential coexist
Analyst David Ng emphasized: "The core of the current market logic lies in the linkage between crude oil and the external oil and fat market. If crude oil continues to weaken, palm oil will not be able to survive alone." It is worth noting that although the short-term technical outlook is bearish, some institutions believe that Indonesia's aviation biofuel plan and India's import policy adjustments may pave the way for medium- and long-term demand. However, these potential benefits need to be balanced against the current weak energy market. Future price reversal will require crude oil to stabilize or food demand to grow beyond expectations.
Outlook: Pay attention to the energy sector and policy implementation
Taken together, the palm oil market is at a node where long and short factors are intertwined. Crude oil price trends are still the short-term weather vane, and the performance of xmaccount.competing oils, ringgit exchange rate fluctuations and policy adjustments in major importing countries will jointly determine the price fluctuation range. Investors need to pay close attention to changes in crude oil market sentiment and the specific progress of Indonesia's biofuel policy. Unexpected changes on either side may disrupt the current balance.
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