Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- The dollar's rise loses momentum, focus turns to US data
- The daily line has a big negative support, gold and silver are short first and t
- High and fall back to the middle Yin line, gold and silver short and low after s
- Powell's hawkish statements cannot hide the dovish turn. Will September repeat t
- Trump removes Lisa Cook from office, Fed voter may be in danger
market analysis
As the U.S. government shutdown continues and data is "out of power", how can Wall Street giants get a glimpse of the truth about employment?
Wonderful introduction:
Without the depth of the blue sky, you can have the elegance of white clouds; without the magnificence of the sea, you can have the elegance of the creek; without the fragrance of the wilderness, you can have the greenness of the grass. There is no bystander seat in life. We can always find our own position, our own light source, and our own voice.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Official Website]: The US government shutdown continues, data is "outage", how do Wall Street giants get a glimpse of the truth about employment?". Hope this helps you! Original content is as follows:
Economists from JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs estimated on Thursday (October 16) that the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell last week, but lackluster hiring has left many people on the unemployment list.
They calculated that in the week ending October 11, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in various states in the United States fell to 217,000 after seasonality adjustment, from 235,000 the previous week.
Due to the political deadlock between Republicans and Democrats in Washington, the partial U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week. Ten rounds of voting have failed, causing the collection, processing and release of official economic data to stall.
However, states continue to collect and submit unemployment claims data to the Department of Labor database, which remains accessible. Economists have been using unadjusted claims data xmaccount.combined with seasonal adjustments released by the government earlier this year to make their estimates. Claims data is not available for Arizona, Massachusetts, Nevada and Tennessee.
Our estimates assume that initial jobless claims in Tennessee, Massachusetts, Arizona and Nevada - data that did not appear in today's Labor Department report - remain consistent with the latest reported numbers. By taking the highest and lowest claims data from these states this year, the resulting forecast range is 211,000 to 225,000," Goldman Sachs said in a report.
The Labor Department also uses a similar approach to estimate states that failed to provide data in a timely manner.
Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, said: "The latest jobless claims data looks pretty good, suggesting layoffs remain low while the unemployment rate fluctuates. "
Unemployment claims data has become a key indicator for Federal Reserve officials to assess the health of the labor market, and they will pay close attention to the data before the October 28-29 policy meeting.
Layouts and hiring both remain low
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this week: "Available evidence shows that layoffs and hiring rates remain low, and households' views of job opportunities and xmaccount.companies' views of the difficulty of hiring continue to trend downward. ”
Unemployment claims remain within the pre-shutdown range. Although the shutdown has put thousands of federal contractors out of work, there has been no major surge in claims.
Federal workers, hundreds of thousands of whom were furloughed, applied under a separate program Claims. Data on the program were not immediately available.
Economists said the labor market remains stuck in a no-hiring and no-layoff stalemate. The Fed's Beige Book report released on Wednesday showed that labor demand has been generally weak in recent weeks. Now, the small business labor market is showing signs of slowing. The agency's alternative hiring measure, which is based on Bank of America small business payments data, fell in September. The report also pointed out that applications for xmaccount.companies with xmaccount.compensation plans (considered a signal of real job creation) have fallen below pre-epidemic normal levels.
Small businesses have been a major driver of job growth. Economists say President Trump’s trade and immigration policies, as well as the increasingly widespread use of artificial intelligence, have slashed demand for workers and the supply of labor.
JPMorgan estimates that for the week ended October 4, seasonally adjusted The number of continuing jobless claims (a proxy indicator reflecting the job market) remained unchanged at 1.927 million. Goldman Sachs’s estimate of the number of continuing unemployment claims is 1.917 million.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, a new high in the past four years. The continued high number of people applying for unemployment benefits indicates that the situation has not improved.
Analysis of factors that are positive for gold
The "surface" of the report is that the number of initial jobless claims has dropped, showing resilience; but the "deep side" is that hiring has stagnated, the unemployment rate has increased, and the momentum of small businesses has weakened, indicating that the economy is quietly slowing down, boosting gold's prospects. Hedging needs.
Sharp market participants will pay more attention to deep signals. They will believe that although the layoff rate is low, the signs of economic weakness are already very obvious (the unemployment rate of 4.3% is the key), which will also strongly strengthen the market's expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Government shutdowns and data black boxes have added uncertainty to the market and also provided support for gold prices.
On Friday, the fluctuations of spot gold in the Asian market expanded in early trading. It once hit a record high of 4,379.38 US dollars per ounce and then plunged 80 US dollars. Since then, oil has risen to around 4,357 US dollars per ounce. In the short term,The correction in the gold price is more about the technical side of some investors' profit understanding, and there is basically no bad news in the fundamentals. The gold price has increased by 60% this year, and this week's increase is currently nearly 8.5%. There is a high probability that the gold price will maintain Jiulian Yang on the weekly basis.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: The U.S. government shutdown continues, data is "outage", how can Wall Street giants get a glimpse of the truth about employment?", which was carefully xmaccount.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
After doing something, there will always be experiences and lessons learned. In order to facilitate future work, the experience and lessons from past work must be analyzed, researched, summarized, concentrated, and understood at a theoretical level.
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here