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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
-
2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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market analysis
Before the 1.17 mark, who will blink first for EUR/USD?
Wonderful introduction:
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: Before the 1.17 mark, who blinked first for EUR/USD?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (October 20), the EURUSD fluctuated around 1.1650 before the US market opened, and the short-term was still within the range of the previous trading day. The overall background is that risk appetite has been slightly restored, but the lack of new hard catalysts has allowed prices to continue to find direction within last Friday's volatility.
Fundamentals
Short-term drivers are "dislocated": On the one hand, external sentiment has improved marginally. Concerns about regional bank risks eased last weekend - financial reports from large banks showed that credit and revenue remained solid - the safe-haven US dollar gave up some of its gains, and risk appetite in the equity market was restored, which provided some support for the euro.
On the other hand, hard data from the core of the euro zone "sings the opposite tune." Germany's PPI in September was -0.1% month-on-month, and the market had previously expected +0.1%; this was the third consecutive month of month-on-month decline (-0.1% in July, -0.5% in August), and -1.7% year-on-year (previous value -2.2%). The continued weakness in industrial factory prices means that upstream price pressure is weak, suppressing the sustainability of the euro's rebound. European data during the week were relatively light, focusing on the strength and weakness of the speeches of the two European Central Bank executive members - Isabel Schnabel and Joachim Nagel - on inflation and policy outlook; if the words are more "symmetrical", it will be difficult to change the market consensus on "observe first and then act".
On the U.S. side, there will be no major data on Monday. More critical is the September CPI, which was postponed to Friday (postponed due to the government shutdown): this report will directly affect the tone of the Federal Open Market xmaccount.committee's xmaccount.communication. According to CMEFedWatch, the marketA 25 basis point rate cut at the October meeting has been “fully priced in”. If this bet is strengthened by CPI, the dollar may weaken further, which in turn will trigger repricing. The current macro picture therefore shows: Improved risk appetite supports the euro, but weak production data in the Eurozone and the "data forward-looking window" limit the rebound slope, making prices more likely to see-saw within the existing range.
Technical aspect:
The daily chart shows that the middle track of the Bollinger Bands is 1.1704, the upper track is 1.1859, and the lower track is 1.1549; the current exchange rate is below the middle track and above the lower track, which is a typical neutral-to-weak structure. The key highs in recent months are 1.1829 and 1.1918. After the two highs, no heavy-volume breakthrough was formed, forming a cumulative resistance above; the previous lows are 1.1391 and 1.1541, superimposed on the lower track 1.1549, forming a dense support band below.
MACD shows: DIFF-0.0020, DEA-0.0018, still running below the zero axis, the histogram -0.0004, the negative momentum has narrowed xmaccount.compared with the previous period but has not yet turned positive, suggesting the nature of "weak rebound, momentum not confirmed". RSI (14) is around 47.7132, slightly lower than the 50 center, neither overbought nor oversold, which quantitatively corresponds to the mean reversion tendency of "consolidating the market".
Structurally, after falling back from the high point, the K-line entity shrinks, the upper and lower shadow lines alternate, and the Bollinger Bands bandwidth converges xmaccount.compared with the previous period. There is a potential rhythm of "band mouth converging - directional breakthrough", but before it reaches 1.1704, the upward momentum is still in the observation stage; if it falls below 1.1549/1.1541, the downward target will naturally point to 1.1391, and in extreme cases, look back to the low of 1.1210. In terms of paths:
(1) Upward path: If the close returns and stabilizes above 1.1704, it is expected to backtest 1.1829 and further challenge the upper track of 1.1859 and the previous high of 1.1918 ;
(2) Downside path: If it falls below 1.16 and continues to be under pressure below the middle track, it will test the 1.1549-1.1541 support cluster, and the loss will trigger the "lower track-previous low" trend acceleration.
Outlook
Scenario 1: Bullish continuation (the probability increases with the lower CPI on Friday)
If the US CPI is moderate or lower than expected, in line with the market's existing pricing for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25bp in October, the US dollar will continue to be under pressure and the euro will get a tailwind. Technically, once 1.1704 is effectively recovered, the middle track will be transformed into dynamic support, with targets pointing to 1.1829 and 1.1859 in sequence; if the words of ECB officials emphasize "inflation stickiness" or "the need to maintain restrictive interest rates for a longer period of time," it is expected to further test 1.1918. What needs to be emphasized is that before MACD achieves the golden cross, the upward trend is more likely to be a "gradient backtest", mixed with retracement and backtest confirmation.
Scenario 2: Short sellers fight back (if US CPI is strong or interest rate cut expectations cool down)
If inflation readings push upActual interest rates are expected to cover the US dollar in stages, and the exchange rate may retest 1.16, and then point to the 1.1549/1.1541 support cluster; if this support is broken down by heavy volume, the daily structure will shift from "consolidating the market" to the early stage of the "downward channel", with the target naturally looking at 1.1391, and extreme circumstances will open up space to 1.1210. If the fundamentals are xmaccount.combined with the continued weakening of production-side prices in the Eurozone, bears will gain a more solid narrative.
The above content is all about "[XM Group]: Before the 1.17 mark, who will blink first for EUR/USD?" It was carefully xmaccount.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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