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market analysis
Gold’s correction is not a turnaround! Although the dollar is under pressure, the downside is expected to be limited
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Gold's correction is not turning around! Although it is under pressure due to the strength of the US dollar, the downside is expected to be limited." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Tuesday (October 21), spot gold fell slightly from the historical high (4381.29 US dollars per ounce) hit the previous trading day, with a decrease of about 0.8%. However, against the background of positive fundamentals, any substantial room for decline is still limited.
The U.S. dollar is trying to extend the gains of the previous two days, which has become a key resistance restricting the upward trend of xmaccount.commodities. Meanwhile, widespread optimism in global stock markets also curbed gains in the safe-haven precious metal.
However, the dollar’s upside is expected to be limited due to market concerns that a long-term U.S. government shutdown may affect economic performance and rising expectations for the Federal Reserve’s dovish policies. The market has fully priced in expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year, which may continue to suppress the trend of the US dollar.
In addition, ongoing trade uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are expected to continue to provide support for non-interest-bearing gold.
The rally in gold prices paused as the dollar's modest strength weakened multiple positive supports
Caution enveloped the gold market: Gold bulls turned cautious on Tuesday. The U.S. dollar received buying support for the third consecutive trading day, putting downward pressure on gold prices.
Risk appetite continues to heat up: Trade tensions show signs of easing, continuing to boost global risk sentiment and further weakening the appeal of safe-haven gold. U.S. President Trump said last Friday that xmaccount.comprehensive tariff increases were unsustainable. Last Sunday, he declared that the two countries would reach an "extraordinary deal," but warned that a 155% tariff could be imposed if negotiations failed.
Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts suppress the dollar: According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the market has almost fully priced in the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25% at each of the October and December policy meetings.basis points. This could limit any material upside for the U.S. dollar and continue to provide support for non-interest-bearing gold amid economic risks.
The cloud of government shutdown lingers: Investors continue to worry that a long-term shutdown of U.S. government departments will drag down economic performance. The Senate rejected the bill to restart the government for the 11th time on Monday. The shutdown is about to enter its fourth week. The deadlock between the two parties continues with no sign of substantial easing. Trump accused the opposition parties of blocking negotiations on limiting illegal immigration.
Undercurrents of geopolitical risks: Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly reiterated his demand that Ukraine xmaccount.completely give up the Donetsk Oblast as a condition for a ceasefire, and hinted that he is willing to give up part of the occupied southern Ukraine. Trump said last Sunday that the current front should be regarded as a ceasefire line. Ukrainian President Zelensky has repeatedly refused to cede occupied territories such as Donbas, and geopolitical risks continue to provide support for safe-haven gold, limiting the scope for deep corrections in gold prices.
The market awaits inflation data: The market is paying close attention to the latest U.S. inflation data to be released this Friday, which may provide guidance for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path. This will become a key factor affecting the U.S. dollar and driving gold prices ahead of next week's Federal Reserve FOMC policy meeting.
Only when the gold price effectively falls below the support of $4,300 can the price of gold accelerate its correction
Gold prices were unable to continue their existing upward trend on Tuesday and continued to be under pressure in the resistance zone of $4,375-4,380.
Given that the daily relative strength index (RSI) still shows an overbought status, gold prices have repeatedly failed to attack this area, which may indicate that the bullish momentum is running out in the short term.
On the downside, if the price of gold falls back below $4,320, it is expected to attract some buying and find support near the $4,300 mark. If it effectively falls below the 4300 level, it may trigger a technical sell-off, pushing gold prices to accelerate the correction to the intermediate support level of $4240, and then test the 4210-4200 support area.
On the upside, gold bulls may need to wait for gold prices to confirm breaking through the resistance band of $4375-4380 before continuing their layout. If it successfully stands above the integer mark of $4,400, it will mark the start of a new round of breakthroughs in gold prices and open space for the continuation of the established upward trend in the past two months.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Gold's correction is not changing! Although it is under pressure due to the strength of the US dollar, the downside is expected to be limited". It was carefully xmaccount.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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