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Trump's new tariff policy, safe-haven assets continue to rise
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Trump's new tariff policy, safe-haven assets continue to rise." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Macro
As the world's largest consumer economy, the United States has recently launched a series of tariff measures to erect new trade barriers, arousing global attention and strong reactions. He called it the "Our Declaration of Independence" at the White House event, and announced the imposition of 34% tariffs on major Asian powers and 20% tariffs on the EU. From April 9, about 60 countries will apply punitive tariffs. On April 5, the 10% indicator tariff will take effect. Previous tariffs on Indiana goods and cars have also been implemented or will take effect soon. Previously, he also imposed tariffs on steel, aluminum, etc. and expanded the scope, planning to impose new tariffs on semiconductors, etc. Economists warn that this policy will drag down the global economy, increase the risk of recession, and raise the cost of living in the United States. xmaccount.companies also xmaccount.complain that it is difficult to plan their business, trading partners may counter the price increase in xmaccount.commodity prices, and global manufacturing has been affected. In terms of financial markets, tariff uncertainty has caused stock market fluctuations, with the US stock market evaporating nearly $5 trillion since February, and safe-haven assets are popular. In addition, some important economic data in the United States will be released, and the global economy and financial markets will be full of variables in the future affected by Trump's tariff policies.
Dollar Index
In terms of the US dollar index, the price of the US dollar index generally showed a sharp decline on Wednesday. The price rose to the highest level of 104.293 on the day, the lowest level of 103.312 on the spot, and the closing price was 103.634 on the spot. Looking back at the price performance of the US index on Wednesday, the price continued to fluctuate in the short term after the opening in the morning. As time goes by, the price was under pressure after the European session and broke the four-hour support position. After that, the US index was weak again and broke the daily support, which means that the overall US index is expected to resume its medium- and long-term decline again.
From doing cycle analysis, we continue to pay attention to the 106.60 position on the weekly line, this positionIt is the key to the mid-term trend, and the mid-term is short below this position. At the same time, according to the daily level, you need to pay attention to the 103.90 position. This position is the key to the band trend. Yesterday, the price fell below the price again and was expected to open the band pressure again. You can continue to pay attention to it in the future. At the same time, the 103.70 regional resistance is temporarily focused on the 4-hour period. The price is under multi-cycle resistance. We will continue to pay attention to further pressure in the future. We will temporarily focus on the four-hour and daily resistance area under pressure in the short term. We will pay attention to the 102.80-102.30 regional support below.
The US dollar index was short in the range of 103.70-80, defending 5 US dollars, targeting 102.80-102.30
Gold
In terms of gold, the overall price of gold showed a bottoming out and rebounding on Wednesday. The price rose to the highest point of 3142 on the day, fell to the lowest point of 3105, and closed at 3131.61. In response to the short-term surge in prices during the early trading session on Wednesday, the market has continued to maintain this rhythm in recent days. After that, the European session also maintained a rhythm fluctuation. Prices bottomed out and rebounded after the session, and finally ended the big positive state on the day.
From a multi-cycle analysis, the price is currently above the weekly, monthly and daily support, so the multi-cycle are in long-term. The subsequent price is more likely to be treated in the band above the daily support 3050 position and the medium and long-term line. In the other four hours, it is temporarily focused on the 3130 regional support. This position is the current short-term watershed, and the price is bullish above this position. For the current short-term watershed below at 3100 position, as long as the price does not break, it can be treated more often. For the rising wave of today's morning session, the European session needs to focus on waiting and wait and see before the US session.
Gold has a long range of 3130-31, with a defense of 10 US dollars, and a target of 3050-3070-3180
European and American
European and American
European and American prices generally showed an upward trend as scheduled on Wednesday. The price fell to 1.0779 on the day and rose to 1.0923 on the spot and closed at 1.0852 on the spot. Looking back at the performance of European and American markets on Wednesday, the opening price in the morning was mainly short-term fluctuated, and the European session was also fluctuated. After that, the US session price broke through the four-hour resistance and broke the daily resistance at the same time, and finally the big positive state ended.
From a multi-cycle perspective, Europe and the United StatesIf it is above the support for a long time, the price is above the 1.0540 position, the midline should be treated more. From the daily level, we need to pay attention to the 1.0840 position for the time being. At present, the price has broken through and stabilized, and the correction in the rise of the band will end, and the band will resume and continue to rise. At the same time, from the four-hour perspective, the price has been temporarily focused on the 1.0850 area. The price has once again stabilized for four hours and daily resistance. After the adjustment is over, it is expected to rise again. In the short term, it is temporarily focused on the 1.0840-1.0850 range, and in the short term, it will continue after breaking.
Europe and the United States have a range of 1.0840-50, with a defense of 40 points, and a target of 1.0920-1.0950
[Finance data and events that are focused today] Thursday, April 3, 2025
①09:45 China's March Caixin Service Industry PMI
②14:30 Switzerland's March CPI monthly rate
③15: 50 The final value of the service industry in France in March
④15:55 The final value of the service industry in Germany in March
⑤16:00 The final value of the service industry in the euro zone in March
⑥16:30 The final value of the service industry in the United Kingdom in March
⑦17:00 The monthly rate of the PPI in the euro zone in February
⑧19:30 The US Challenger Enterprise layoffs Number of people
⑨19:30 European Central Bank released minutes of the March monetary policy meeting
⑩20:30 Number of initial unemployment claims in the week from the United States to March 29
20:30 US February trade account
21:45 US S&P Global Services PMI final value in March
22:00 US March ISM non-manufacturing PMI
22:30 US March EIA natural gas inventories
00:30 US the next day
00:30 US the next day
02:30 US the next day
02:30 US the next day
02:30 US the next day
02:30 US the next day
00:30 US the next day
02:30 US the next day
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