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The dawn of trade is hard to beat the torrent of supply! Revealing the culprit behind the weak rebound in oil prices

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Optimism is the line of egrets that go straight up to the sky, optimism is the thousands of white sails on the side of the sunken boat, optimism is the luxuriant grass blowing in the wind at the head of Parrot Island, optimism is the little bits of falling red that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.

Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM official website]: The dawn of trade cannot beat the torrent of supply! Revealing the culprit behind the weak rebound in oil prices." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On Wednesday (October 22), U.S. crude oil (WTI) continued its gains from the previous trading day. It is currently trading around US$58.06 per barrel, an increase of about 1.4%, recovering from the nearly five-month low of US$55.96 per barrel set this week, as API showed that US crude oil inventories fell and the market trade tensions eased to provide support.

However, under the influence of declining geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production increase, the continued upward potential of U.S. crude oil may be limited.

API surprise: crude oil, gasoline inventories fell

On Wednesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.98 million barrels in the week to October 17, while the market had expected a significant increase, which xmaccount.completely offset last week's 2.78 million barrel inventory increase.

U.S. crude oil inventories are still showing a net decrease trend this year. According to Oilprice's calculation of API data, they have decreased by 2.423 million barrels.

Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of Energy reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by 900,000 barrels. In the week ended October 17, the government attempted to replenish inventories (408.6 million barrels) that were depleted by the previous administration.

U.S. production hit a record high in the week of October 10, with data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing that it reached 13.636 million barrels per day.

Gasoline inventories also decreased by 236,000 barrels in the week of October 17, after increasing by 2.99 million barrels in the previous week. As of last week, gasoline inventories were slightly below the five-year average for this time of year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Distillate oil inventories continued to decline during the reporting period, following a decline of 4% in the previous week.After 790,000 barrels, there was a decrease of 974,000 barrels. The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that distillate inventories were 7% below the five-year average in the week ended October 10.

The United States purchases symbolic crude oil to replenish strategic reserves

The Trump administration is tentatively replenishing the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), announcing plans to purchase 1 million barrels of crude oil for delivery in December and January. Although this move is symbolic, it is just a drop in the bucket for the strategic reserve, which once held 700 million barrels of oil.

The U.S. Department of Energy will use $171 million in President Trump’s newly enacted tax and spending bill to purchase crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The department has issued a request for bids to transport crude oil to the Bayou Chocta reserve base in Louisiana. The deadline for bidding is October 28, and the final contract price will be linked to the spot market price.

U.S. crude oil prices have fallen continuously since January. Due to increased inventories, U.S. crude oil production hitting a record of 13.6 million barrels per day, and global oversupply, oil prices have fallen by about 30%, and traders have begun to discuss the possibility of oil prices falling to $50.

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the country's emergency oil buffer, was significantly reduced during the Biden administration, when the government released 180 million barrels of oil to calm gasoline prices. The release of reserves has brought reserves to a 40-year low of about 395 million barrels.

Replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is neither cheap nor quick. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said it could take years and cost up to $20 billion to rebuild stocks. Congress has quickly approved $1.3 billion to replenish and maintain the stockpile while reversing the policy that forced the stockpile to be emptied in previous years.

Nonetheless, the million-barrel purchase is more of a political gesture than an energy strategy. With maintenance delays pushing other planned deliveries to the end of 2025 and every government purchase signaling to traders that prices may rise, Washington is walking on thin ice between replenishing reserves and spurring another surge in oil prices.

The world's largest crude oil exporter is gradually increasing production together with other OPEC+ members

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) continue to promote production increase plans, prompting the market to predict that there will be a supply surplus of crude oil this year and next.

The International Monetary Fund pointed out that although the Saudi government has made progress in diversifying the US$1.2 trillion economy, the recovery in oil prices and production will benefit the country's fiscal and current accounts the most.

Jihad Azour, head of the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia department of the International Monetary Fund, said in a TV interview: "A rise in oil prices or a rebound in oil production will have an immediate impact."

He said that for every 1 million barrels of daily increase in oil production, Saudi Arabia's fiscal balance will improve by an amount equivalent to 3.2% of gross domestic product, and the current account will improve by 3.7%.

The world's largest crude oil exporter is gradually increasing production along with other OPEC+ members, from just under 9 million barrels per day to nearly 10 million barrels per day as of September.

Partly due to increased supply, the Washington-based foundation raised its economic growth forecast for Saudi Arabia to 4% this year from the previous 3% in its latest regional economic report released on Tuesday.

While increased oil supply is currently supporting GDP growth in Saudi Arabia, it is also depressing crude oil prices. Brent crude oil prices have fallen 18% this year, well below the levels the country needs to balance its budget.

Trade tensions ease

U.S. President Trump last week threatened to impose a new round of 100% tariffs and hinted that he might miss a meeting in South Korea later this month. However, he softened his stance last weekend, saying that imposing high tariffs was unsustainable and expressing hope for smoother trade relations.

Trump predicted Tuesday night that his upcoming meeting would result in a "good deal" on trade. But he also acknowledged that the highly anticipated talks may not take place.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant will also prepare to meet to discuss easing trade tensions and pave the way for the upcoming leaders' meeting. As the world's two largest economies and major crude oil consumers, any signs of easing trade frictions are likely to push up oil prices in the short term.

If the trade conflict escalates, it may lead to a more intense tariff war that will harm the economic growth prospects of the two countries, and its economic slowdown will put global oil demand at risk.

In addition, OPEC+ continues to focus on gradually increasing production in 2025, and the xmaccount.combination of increased supply and weakening demand may lead to a structural imbalance between supply and demand. As long as this situation persists and uncertainty remains, the bearish trend is likely to dominate in the short term.

How is confidence in the crude oil market changing?

In the short term, the CBOE crude oil volatility index has begun to rise, approaching the 40-point mark, which reflects the rise in crude oil implied volatility. This increase in volatility indicates that the market is increasingly uncertain about the future prospects of oil, and prices may fluctuate violently, or trigger a deeper short-term correction.

The continued rise in the crude oil volatility index can be interpreted as a signal of a lack of confidence in the market - rising volatility often drives oil prices downward quickly. As long as the market fails to perceive price stabilization, the index is likely to continue rising, reinforcing the market's perception that crude oil remains a risky asset in the context of continued uncertainty about future demand. This situation could dampen short-term demand and reinforce a temporary bearish bias.

Technical Analysis

Continued downward trend: Since late June, U.S. crude oil has maintained a stable bearish trend, and there has been no effective bullish correction that can shake this trend. As long as selling pressure continues to dominate, the overall outlook will remain bearish.

RSI Relative Strength Index: The indicator is still at the 50 axisBelow, it shows that selling momentum has continued to dominate over the past 14 trading days.

MACD indicator: The MACD histogram continues to stay below the zero axis, reflecting that market sentiment remains bearish. If the indicator continues to move away from neutral territory, selling pressure may intensify further in the xmaccount.coming days.

Key price:

$65 - core resistance level: As an important barrier, if an effective breakthrough is achieved, it may challenge the current bearish trend and turn the future trend of oil prices into bullish dominance.

$60 - Near-term resistance level: If oil prices effectively break through and stabilize above this point, it may further strengthen the short-term technical rebound.

$55 - Key support level: This position coincides with the annual low of $55.12 and remains the most important selling defense line. An effective break below this support would confirm a stronger bearish acceleration signal in the short term.

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