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Global market outlook under the intersection of PMI, small non-agriculture and central bank decisions
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM official website]: Global market outlook under the intertwining of PMI, small non-agricultural and central bank decisions". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
Next week (November 3-7) will usher in a key data-intensive trading week. The PMIs of many countries' manufacturing and service industries will be unveiled together, the central bank's interest rate decision will be implemented, and the "small non-agricultural sector" (ADP employment data) will make a major debut. Data such as the trade balance and consumer confidence index of core economies such as China, the United States and Europe will be superimposed, plus intensive xmaccount.comments from Federal Reserve officials.
The market needs to seize opportunities and avoid risks in data signals and policy expectations - every data and event may affect the short-term trends of the stock market, foreign exchange market, and xmaccount.commodity market. Investors need to sort out the logic in advance and prepare a response.
On Monday (November 3), the manufacturing PMIs of many countries were released, and the leading indicators of valuation appeared
Monday will usher in a "concentrated review" of the global manufacturing PMI, and the data is particularly critical in guiding the valuation of each country's stock market.
First of all, Malaysia's October manufacturing PMI and China's October SPGI manufacturing PMI were released first - China's SPGI manufacturing PMI, formerly known as Caixin PMI, focuses on small and medium-sized private enterprises and is closer to the micro-market vitality. Previously, China's official manufacturing PMI recorded 49.0% and the expected value was 49.6%.
Subsequently, France, Germany, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, Brazil, the United States, and Mexico successively announced their manufacturing PMIs. As the leading indicator of stock market valuation center, PMI performance will directly affect the direction of stock markets in various countries.
On Tuesday (November 4), the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to take the lead, and economic signals from Australia and Canada were simultaneously released
On Tuesday, the market focus was on the Australian and North American economies.
In the morning, Australia will first announce the ANZ consumer confidence index for the week, and then the Reserve Bank of Australia will announceInterest rate decision - The current market generally expects that it will continue to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.6%. The core reason is that Australia's CPI performance in the third quarter far exceeded market expectations.
On the same day, Canada released trade account data: As Canada's largest export target, U.S. demand directly affects Canada's trade performance, so this data is also regarded as an "indirect signal" reflecting changes in U.S. consumption conditions.
In the evening, Federal Reserve official Daley will give a speech, and the Governor of the Bank of Canada will also speak simultaneously.
Wednesday (November 5) PMI of the service industry reflects people's livelihood, and small non-agricultural sectors become a key anchor of the labor market
Wednesday's data are closely linked to the xmaccount.commodity and job markets. The routine release of U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventory data will directly affect the trend of international oil prices. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the increase or decrease in inventories reflects changes in the global crude oil supply and demand pattern.
Many countries’ service industry PMIs took turns to appear: China, the United Kingdom, Brazil, and the United States successively announced their own service industry PMIs. Unlike the manufacturing PMI, which focuses on the production side, the service PMI directly reflects people's consumption experience and cost of living, and is closer to people's livelihood.
What deserves special attention is that the U.S. xmaccount.company ADP will release October ADP employment changes that day, which is the "small non-agricultural" data well known to the market.
In the context that non-agricultural data has not yet been clearly released, the importance of the ADP data this time has been further highlighted; at the same time, the ADP agency will release weekly data starting from this time (the ADP weekly forecast data will be released every Tuesday). This adjustment will provide the market with a more sensitive means of observing the U.S. labor market.
Thursday (November 6) trade account and industrial data will guide the way, and the Bank of England will decide
Thursday’s data focuses on “global economic prosperity” and “European monetary policy expectations.” In the morning, Australia released its September trade balance: As a typical xmaccount.commodity exporting country, Australia's trade balance is usually a leading indicator of global economic prosperity.
Subsequently, the Eurozone released year-on-year and month-on-month retail sales data, and Germany simultaneously released annual industrial output data: both data are important reference indicators for the European Central Bank to formulate monetary policy.
In the evening, the Bank of England announced its interest rate decision: the current market expects it to continue to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.0%. However, because the British CPI rose lower than expected in September, Goldman Sachs believes that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Friday (November 7) ended with trade data, and five FOMC voting xmaccount.committee members set the tone for Federal Reserve policy
Friday ended with core trade data and Federal Reserve policy guidance.
In the morning, China released its October trade balance - this data is an effective leading indicator of the profitability of Chinese export xmaccount.companies. Later, Germany and France also released their own export data, reflecting the changes in the core countries of the Eurozone's dependence on external demand.
In the afternoon, the University of Michigan released the November Consumer Confidence Index. The data will reflect the American people’s expectations for the economic outlook, which will in turn affect the market’s judgment on U.S. consumption.break.
The highlight of Friday will be in the evening: the five U.S. FOMC voting xmaccount.committee members will give collective speeches. Their statements on inflation trends, the labor market, and interest rate decisions in December and beyond will provide key policy guidance to the market and directly affect the short-term trends of the U.S. dollar index and gold.
Risk warning: Data divergence, policy shifts and geopolitical variables require careful vigilance
In addition to core data and central bank events, the market needs to be alert to three major potential risks next week to avoid trading damage due to unexpected changes.
Data deviation and risk of exceeding expectations: Manufacturing and service PMIs in many countries may "divergence", or ADP employment data and subsequent labor market signals (such as the number of initial jobless claims) may deviate significantly. Such contradictory signals may trigger repeated market expectations, leading to short-term violent fluctuations in stock and foreign exchange markets;
Although the Reserve Bank of Australia predicts The interest rate is maintained, but the higher-than-expected CPI in the third quarter may cause it to release a "hawkish stabilization" signal and unexpectedly mention the possibility of raising interest rates; if the Bank of England hints at an earlier interest rate cut in the resolution because the CPI is lower than expected, it may cause the pound to dive; if there is a "hawk-dove difference" in the speeches of the five voting xmaccount.committee members of the Federal Reserve, it will increase market confusion about the December resolution, thereby disturbing the trend of the US dollar and gold.
Geographic and liquidity variables: If the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict escalate, it may trigger a rise in risk aversion, promote the strength of safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar, and suppress global risk assets; at the same time, if EIA crude oil inventories increase or decrease more than expected, it may trigger single-day fluctuations in international oil prices.
The above content is all about "[XM official website]: Global market outlook under the intertwining of PMI, small non-agricultural and central bank decisions". It is carefully xmaccount.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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