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market analysis

Tariffs spark global recession fears, dollar will become safe haven

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Tariffs trigger concerns about global economic recession, and the US dollar will become a safe haven." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On the Asian session on Tuesday, the US dollar index hovered around 103.09, and the US dollar rose 0.53% against other currencies, rising for two consecutive trading days, breaking from the six-month low hit last week. The strengthening of the dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. The focus of the U.S. economy this week will be the March consumer and producer price reports released Thursday and Friday respectively. Data from Friday showed employers increased more than expected jobs last month, but unemployment rates also rose.

Analysis of major currencies

U.S. dollar: As of press time, the U.S. dollar index hovers around 103.09. The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the U.S. dollar (USD) against six major currencies, traded around the 103 area on Monday after rebounding on Friday. Market volatility has intensified as headlines suggest that the U.S. (US) temporarily suspended tariffs, although the remarks were quickly refuted by the White House. Technically, this week, U.S. data became the focus again; U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data is scheduled to be released on Thursday, and U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation and University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index survey results will be released on Friday. This will be the last wave of the “pre-tariff” phase on key U.S. inflation and sentiment data in 2025, marking a key measure for the rest of the year.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers aroundAround 1.0953, the euro/dollar fell again on Monday, marking the second consecutive day of Fiber's decline and pushing the buying lower to the 1.0900 level. After a brief break, the US dollar regained control of the safe-haven flow, and investor sentiment weakened and further strengthened the US dollar across the board. This week, U.S. data is once again in the spotlight, with consumer price index (CPI) inflation data set to be released on Thursday. On Friday, we can expect the Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index survey results. These will be the ultimate key indicators of U.S. inflation and sentiment in the early stages of tariffs in 2025, providing important benchmarks for the rest of the year. Technically, the dollar was hit by the new US tariff strategy, and the euro/dollar surged to a few months high above 1.1100. However, the recovery of the safe-haven flow is in favor of the US dollar, causing Fiber to fall from a new high and retest the 1.0900 mark and potentially more losses incurred.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD hovered around 1.2762, GBP/USD fell again on Monday, GBP fell for the second consecutive trading day and pushed the buying back to the 2700-day exponential moving average (EMA) north of 200.1. After a brief easing, the dollar regained the dominance of safe-haven capital flows, and the downturn in investor sentiment boosted the dollar across the board. Technically, the sharp rebalancing of market flows has dragged the pound back to the 200-day EMA, forcing bids to return to the middle range that has plagued the pair for more than two years. Volatility has increased across the board, making it difficult to identify the technical level. The rough resistance zone is priced between 1.2900 and 1.3000, while the direct technical bottom line is priced between 1.2600.

Summary of news from the foreign exchange market

1. U.S. House Speaker: The House will still "great light" for Trump's global tariff plan

According to US media Politico, U.S. House Speaker Johnson said on Monday that even if some Republican lawmakers publicly plead for Trump to negotiate a way to cancel tariffs before the tariffs take effect on Wednesday, the House will still provide "space" for Trump to implement his large-scale global tariff system. "We'll give him the space necessary to implement policies and see how things will go," Johnson said. The speaker went on to say that Trump is "Actively participate and try to resolve the trade deficit. Opposition within the Republican Party is presented in the form of a joint bipartisan legislation aimed at reclaiming Congress’s power in tariffs from the president. It follows Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell and Iowa Republican Senator Chuck Grassley proposed legislation that restricts the president’s unilateral tariff power. U.S. Rep. Don Bacon (R. Nebraska) plans to propose a House version of the legislation on Monday. Johnson on Monday refused to publicly promise on Monday to submit a revised Senate budget plan to the House for a vote this week, due to strong opposition from a group of fiscal conservatives. However, some senior Republican aides said the current plan is still planned to be as planned on Wednesday. The final vote will be held at noon.

2. The European xmaccount.commission proposes to impose a 25% counter-tariff on a series of U.S. imported goods

According to Reuters, the document shows that the European xmaccount.commission proposes to impose a 25% counter-tariff on a series of U.S. imported goods, which will take effect from May 16. The European xmaccount.commission removes U.S. bourbon from its list of items to impose counter-tariffs. The document states that the tariffs on some of the above goods will take effect on May 16, while tariffs on other goods will take effect later this year, December 1.

3. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that Japan and the United States will continue to negotiate on tariffs

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on a telegram with U.S. President Trump on Monday The talk failed to ensure tariff exemptions, but the leaders of both countries agreed that the issue should be further discussed by ministers of the two countries. Shigeru Ishiba said he conveyed Japan's serious concern that "unilaterally" tariffs on Japanese products would hurt Japanese xmaccount.companies' investments, adding that the two countries should seek broader mutually beneficial cooperation rather than tariffs.

4. UBS expects corporate bond spreads to reach the highest level since 2020

UBS Group strategists predict that the impact of Trump's tariffs will push corporate bond spreads to the level at the beginning of the pandemic. Last week, concerns about tariffs that would slow down the global economy shocked the credit market, with the United States and Europe tracking credit default swaps showing their biggest gains since March 2023 Data shows that the average spread for high-grade bonds closed at 1.09 percentage points or 109 basis points last Friday, the highest since August 2024. The junk bond spread closed at 427 basis points this week, the highest since November 2023. UBS currently expects that by mid-2025, the corporate spread for high-grade bonds (i.e., the additional premium for investors holding riskier bonds relative to U.S. Treasury bonds) could reach 160-170 basis points and junk bonds reached 600-650 basis points. Indexes tracking corporate bond spreads have not reached this level since the 2020 pandemic. When the spread for investment-grade bonds approaches 150 basis points, the Federal Reserve usuallyWill start to worry.

5. The S&P 500 has also xmaccount.come to the brink of a bear market or suggests a recession. Futures linked to the S&P 500 index fell further on Monday, down more than 20% from its historical high. This is the most popular benchmark index in the U.S. stock market, which is about to confirm the bear market. Dow Jones Industrial Average Price Index futures also fell 20% from all-time highs, while the Nasdaq confirmed last week in a bear market as concerns about the recession hit global stock markets after Trump's full tariffs. According to a widely used definition, if an index closes more than 20% below its historical closing high, the index is confirmed to have entered a bear market. The last time the S&P 500 confirmed it was in a bear market was in June 2022, when investors were worried about whether the Fed could curb post-epidemic inflation without triggering a recession. Bear markets often lead to recessions and continue until investors believe the worst phase of the recession has passed. Data from investment research firm CFRA shows that nine of the 12 bear markets since 1948 have been accompanied by economic recession.

Institutional View

1. Market Analysis: Tariffs may have a greater impact on the United States than the euro zone, thereby boosting the euro.

UBS Global Wealth Management analysts said in a report that the euro against the U.S. dollar EUR/USD should further rebound from an undervalued position, as US tariffs may damage the U.S. economy more severely than the euro zone. They said that while tariffs may have a negative impact on the eurozone economy in the near term, the ECB's previous rate cuts, Germany's expected fiscal stimulus and the EU's increased defense spending should boost economic growth in the xmaccount.coming years. "We expect the U.S. economy to be hit hardest by new tariffs, and from now on, the Fed's easing policy will surpass the ECB." UBS raised its forecasts for Europe and the United States in September 2025 and March 2026 to 1.12 and 1.14, respectively.

2. Danske Bank: The euro may continue to rise due to weak US economic outlook and EU fiscal reform.

Danske Bank analyst Frederik Romedahl Poulsen said in a report that the euro may continue to rise against the US economic outlook and the euro zone fiscal stimulus plan. He said the rising risk of a U.S. recession, coupled with President Trump's policy stance, has posed an increasingly greater drag on the U.S.'s structural growth prospects. The gap between the inflation-adjusted U.S. real interest rates and other regions may narrow, reducing support for the dollar. There are also obvious early signs that capital is flowing out of U.S. assets. "In the euro, fiscal reforms in Europe are beginning to boost market sentiment." Danske Bank expects the euro to rise to 1.14 against the dollar in six months.

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market analysis

Tariffs spark global recession fears, dollar will become safe haven

Analysis of major currencies

1. U.S. House Speaker: The House will still "great light" for Trump's global tariff plan

2. The European xmaccount.commission proposes to impose a 25% counter-tariff on a series of U.S. imported goods

3. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that Japan and the United States will continue to negotiate on tariffs

4. UBS expects corporate bond spreads to reach the highest level since 2020

Institutional View

1. Market Analysis: Tariffs may have a greater impact on the United States than the euro zone, thereby boosting the euro.

2. Danske Bank: The euro may continue to rise due to weak US economic outlook and EU fiscal reform.

Related News

XM Forex Trading Platform

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

market analysis

Tariffs spark global recession fears, dollar will become safe haven

Analysis of major currencies

1. U.S. House Speaker: The House will still "great light" for Trump's global tariff plan

2. The European xmaccount.commission proposes to impose a 25% counter-tariff on a series of U.S. imported goods

3. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that Japan and the United States will continue to negotiate on tariffs

4. UBS expects corporate bond spreads to reach the highest level since 2020

Institutional View

1. Market Analysis: Tariffs may have a greater impact on the United States than the euro zone, thereby boosting the euro.

2. Danske Bank: The euro may continue to rise due to weak US economic outlook and EU fiscal reform.

Related News

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason