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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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market news
Two positive lines, causing the Australian dollar/USD to go from oversold to overbought?
Wonderful introduction:
Optimism is the line of egrets that are straight up to the blue sky, optimism is the thousands of white sails beside the sunken boat, optimism is the lush grass that blows with the wind on the head of the parrot island, optimism is the falling red spots that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: two positive lines, let the Australian dollar/USD go from oversold to overbought?". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday (April 10), the Australian dollar exchange rate continued to rise strongly, with trading around 0.6200 during the North American period. Since the recent rebound of 0.5913 low, the exchange rate has formed a significant upward channel and continues to maintain a strong trend.
Fundamental Analysis
The Australian dollar continues to lead market participants to experience roller coaster shocks. On Wednesday, the Australian dollar rose 3.2% against the dollar, quickly recovering from a 6% decline in the previous three days. This violent fluctuation is directly caused by the huge fluctuations in the global equity market.
Earlier this week, the latest round of tariffs in the United States triggered a sharp decline in equity markets, triggering a trend of funds flowing from risky currencies such as the Australian dollar to safer assets such as the Japanese yen. However, the equity market reversed its direction and rose sharply on Wednesday, and the Australian dollar also rose sharply.
Australian consumer inflation expectations climbed to 4.2% in April, up from 3.6% in March and surpassed the 3.6% forecast. This significant increase reflects market concerns that the latest trade tensions could drive up Australia's inflation rate. The RBA cuts interest rates only once after maintaining interest rates for more than a year, but may need to accelerate its easing pace due to tariff turmoil.
Technical analysts interpret:
From the 60-minute chart, the Australian dollar has formed a fairly standard upward channel pattern. Starting from the low point of 0.5913, the price runs in an orderly manner along the two upward trend lines. The current exchange rate is running in the upper middle and upper part of the channel, forming short-term resistance with the 0.6210 area. It is worth noting that MA14 (14th period moving average) is located at 0.6169, providing good support for the current exchange rate. At the same time, MA55 (55th period moving average) is located at 0.6064, which constitutesMedium-term support.
The MACD indicator shows that the DIFF value is 0.0034 and the DEA value is 0.0036. Although the difference between the two is small, the bar chart begins to be bullish, indicating that the upward action energy is still accumulating. The RSI indicator reading reached 67.4649, close to the overbought area, and it is conceived that it may face the risk of a pullback in the short term.
4-hour chart analysis shows that the Australian dollar has xmaccount.completed a "V-shaped reversal" pattern against the US dollar, rebounding strongly from the low point of 0.5913 to the current level. The exchange rate is currently above MA55 (55 period moving average) 0.6171 and MA14 (14 period moving average) 0.6070, confirming that the medium-term trend turns bullish. It is worth noting that 0.6388 is the recent high, which constitutes an important resistance.
The MACD indicator shows that the DIFF value is 0.0008 and the DEA value is -0.0022. Both have formed a golden cross, and the bar chart has turned into a positive value, indicating that the medium-term upward momentum is forming. The RSI is 59.8719, which is in a relatively strong neutral area and there is still room for growth. The CCI value reached 106.4052, indicating short-term overbought risk, but has not yet reached an extreme level.
Future Outlook
Short-term Outlook: The Australian dollar is currently in the middle of the upward channel, and is facing the test of the resistance area of 0.6210-0.6215 in the short term. If it can break through, further upward space will be opened, and the next target will point to the range of 0.6250-0.6255. However, given that both the RSI and CCI indicators show signs of overbought, it is not ruled out that the exchange rate will encounter resistance and fall around 0.6210. The pullback support first looks to the MA14 moving average 0.6169. If it falls below, it may test the level of the 0.6150 lower track of the upward channel.
Medium- and long-term outlook: From the technical perspective, the Australian dollar has established an upward trend against the US dollar; however, as the exchange rate approaches the resistance area of 0.6330-0.6388 (formerly high), it may face greater pressure to take profits. In addition, the monetary policy differences between the RBA and the Federal Reserve will be the main influencing factor in the medium-term exchange rate. If global trade frictions ease further, it is expected to push the Australian dollar to challenge the 0.6400 region; on the contrary, if risk sentiment worsens again, the exchange rate may fall back to the 0.60-0.59 support area.
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