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The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, and the yield on US bonds soared abnormally

Wonderful introduction:

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Group]: The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, and the US bond yields soared abnormally." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

XM foreign exchange market: The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, and the US bond yields rose abnormally.

Macross:

Yesterday, the US dollar index fell 1.97%, reaching a low of 100.7; today's market continued to decline, with the lowest intraday low (European session) of 99.38, falling below the 100 integer mark. The 100 mark is a watershed, with the US dollar index in a strong cycle on the top and the US dollar index in a weak cycle on the bottom. The confirmation of a weak cycle requires the US dollar index to run below the 100 mark for a period of time, and it has just declined today, so it is not yet conclusive that the weak cycle has appeared.

From the monthly level, the US dollar index is in a long-term oscillating state (also called the central structure). Since 2023, the upper limit of the oscillation center has been 107.35 and the lower limit is 100.62. In July 2023, the US dollar index also broke the 100 mark, but the duration is very short, and it rebounded above 100 in that month. However, the monetary policy environment at that time was different from now. In July 2023, the Federal Reserve had just experienced several interest rate hikes, and market expectations were inclined to tighten. Now, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times, and expectations of market easing are stronger. In addition, Trump's policy is xmaccount.completely different from Biden's policy at that time, and the former is more radical. Therefore, the probability of an effective breakthrough is higher than in 2023 when the US dollar index fell below the 100 mark.

▲The trend superposition chart of the US dollar index and US bond yields-XM

It is worth mentioning the US bond market. In recent days, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has risen rapidly, with the quotes starting from the beginning of the month.3.86% soared to around 4.5%, an increase of 64 basis points. The U.S. Treasury yield is the pricing anchor of the U.S. Treasury yield rises, and the U.S. Treasury index will rise accordingly. This time there is a difference, and the two have a serious deviation. We believe that the rise in US Treasury yields may be more reference-based, and the current decline of the US dollar index is more based on market pessimism. After the pessimistic sentiment fades, the probability of a sharp rebound in the US dollar index is higher (the judgment of maintaining the decline before the decline is slow).

Technical aspect:

▲XM diagram

The central structure formed in March this year has a short duration, more like a short round of callbacks. The rebound on April 4 and April 7, the highest price entered the central structure, but the sharp drop trend the next day showed that this rebound was an unsuccessful retracement. In the medium and short term, the US dollar index will likely continue until a new central structure is formed.

XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market has xmaccount.com risks, and investment should be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' views may change and updates will not be notified separately.

The above content is all about "[XM Group]: The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, and the US bond yields soared abnormally". It was carefully xmaccount.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, and the yield on US bonds soared abnormally

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market analysis

The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, and the yield on US bonds soared abnormally

Related News

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason