EU pharmaceutical product exports grew strongly, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 14

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major stock index futures rose, with Dow futures mainly blue-chip stocks rising by 0.85%; S&P 500 futures rose by 1.21%; and Nasdaq 100 futures mainly technology stocks rose by 1.41%. European stock markets rose, with the German DAX index rising 2.30%; the French CAC40 index rising 1.90%; and the UK FTSE 100 index rising 1.75%.

2. Market news interpretation

EU pharmaceutical product exports grew strongly, and the trade surplus hit a new high

1. In 2024, the export volume of EU pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical products increased by 13.5% xmaccount.compared with 2023, reaching 313.4 billion euros. Meanwhile, imports rose by only 0.5% to 119.7 billion euros.

2. Therefore, the EU's trade surplus in pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical products reached 193.6 billion euros in 2024, a record high.

3. Germany, Ireland and Belgium are the largest exporters of pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical products outside the EU. In 2024, Germany's exports were 67.9 billion euros, Ireland's 56.6 billion euros, and Belgium's 41.4 billion euros.

4. The largest importers outside the EU are Germany (23 billion euros), Belgium (21.3 billion euros) and the Netherlands (14.7 billion euros).

5. The United States and Switzerland are the major trading partners of the EU's pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical products. In 2024, the United States is the EU's pharmaceutical and manufacturingThe largest destination for drug products exports, accounting for 38.2% of exports outside the EU, with an amount of 119.8 billion euros; followed by Switzerland, accounting for 16.4%, with an amount of 51.3 billion euros; and the United Kingdom accounted for 5.8%, with an amount of 18.2 billion euros.

6. Most of the EU's imports xmaccount.come from the United States (38.3%, 45.9 billion euros), Switzerland (32.6%, 39.1 billion euros) and the United Kingdom (7.3%, 8.7 billion euros).

OPEC lowered global oil demand and economic growth expectations

1. OPEC lowered global oil demand growth forecast from 1.45 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, and from 1.43 million barrels per day to 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026. U.S. tariff policies are considered one of the factors that affect oil demand.

2.OPEC also lowered its global economic growth expectations, falling from 3.1% to 3% in 2025 and from 3.2% to 3.1% in 2026. U.S. economic growth expectations have also been lowered, from 2.4% to 2.1% in 2025 and from 2.3% to 2.2% in 2026.

3. Eurozone economic expectations have also been affected, with economic growth forecasts falling from 0.9% to 0.8% in 2025, but remained at 1.1% in 2026. OPEC also lowered its oil supply growth expectations for countries participating in non-OPEC Cooperation Declaration, down from 1 million barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026.

4.OPEC crude oil production fell 78,000 barrels per day to 26.78 million barrels per day in March. Crude oil production in Iraq and the UAE fell by 34,000 barrels per day and 21,000 barrels per day, respectively, while crude oil production in Iran and Kazakhstan increased by 12,000 barrels per day and 37,000 barrels per day, respectively.

One-third of American xmaccount.companies no longer have the right to repurchase the assets they sold when they exit the Russian market

On April 14, local time, Robert Eggie, head of the U.S. Chamber of xmaccount.commerce in Russia, said that one-third of American xmaccount.companies have lost the right to repurchase the assets they sold when they exit the Russian market in 2022. He said the xmaccount.companies have signed subscription options contracts with new owners for a period of time, some of which have expired. Robert Eggie said that in the first year of sanctions, the maximum period for options is 5 years, and this period is shortened to three years in 2023, and such licenses are no longer available.

Brazil's economic expectations data remained stable

1. Brazilian economists' forecasts for key economic indicators in 2025 and 2026 remained stable. According to CENBANK poll, the 2025 IPCA annual inflation index is expected to be 5.65%, the same as previous forecasts.

2. The IPCA annual inflation index in 2026 is expected to be 4.50%, and there is no change. This shows that economists' expectations for the inflation situation in Brazil are relatively consistent.

3. In terms of interest rates,The SELIC interest rate forecast is expected to remain at 15.00% by the end of 2025, while the SELIC interest rate forecast is 12.50% by the end of 2026, both consistent with the previous forecast.

4. Economic growth expectations are also relatively stable. The GDP growth rate in 2025 was slightly raised to 1.98%, which was previously 1.97%; the GDP growth rate in 2026 was expected to be 1.61%, which was previously 1.60%.

5. In terms of exchange rate, the forecast of the Brazilian real against the US dollar has also remained stable. It is expected to be 5.90 by the end of 2025 and 5.97 by the end of 2026, before 5.90 and 5.99 respectively. Overall, Brazilian economists' expectations for the economic outlook have not adjusted significantly.

Kazakhstan's oil production fell in early April but still exceeded the OPEC+ quota

1. According to sources, Kazakhstan's oil production from April 1 to 13 fell by about 3% from the March average, but is still higher than the OPEC+ quota. Production in April was about 1.82 million barrels per day, while OPEC+ stipulated a quota of 1.473 million barrels per day.

2. The daily production of Tengiz, the largest oil field in Kazakhstan (led by Chevron), fell from an average of 950,000 barrels in March to 884,000 barrels, the main reason for the decline in production.

3. Despite the decline in production, production in April still exceeded the quota. The Kazakhstan Ministry of Energy said that production exceeded the standard in March, but it will fulfill its xmaccount.commitment in April to partially make up for the previous overproduction.

4. Kazakhstan faces challenges in oil exports, with major pipelines (operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium) plagued by drone attacks and the xmaccount.competition for terminal equipment in the Russian Black Sea Novorossiysk port. Russia has limited CPC's export capacity in the Black Sea and was partially restored last week.

5. Kazakhstan is one of the top ten oil producers in the world, with many Occupy oil giants (such as Chevron, Shell, ExxonMobil, Total Energy and Eni) active locally. The increase in the production of the Tengiz field is a major reason for the overall growth of oil production in the country.

What is often mentioned behind the U.S. Treasury bond sell-off is basis trading closing position

Felipe Villarroel, portfolio management partner at TwentyFour Asset Management, said in a report that after talking to the government bond trading department, TwentyFour did not find a clear answer to the U.S. TwentyFour did not find a clear answer to the U.S. TwentyFour sold out. The most xmaccount.common reason is the closing of the position of ‘basis trading’. He explained that this involves traders having to sell U.S. Treasuries to meet margin requirements for leveraged positions. The purpose of a leveraged position is to arbitrage the slight spread between Treasury bonds and Treasury futures or interest rate swaps. The huge volume involved triggered a chain reaction, and suddenly, many bonds needed a new home and buyers were too nervous to catch the knife of the decline in the most turbulent week in recent times.

The yield on the UK 10-year Treasury bonds slipped on Monday

1. The yield on the UK 10-year Treasury bond slipped to 4.7% on Monday, after a sharp rise in the week due to uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies. Investor sentiment was hit last week by President Trump's extensive tariff policies, causing yields to rise by nearly 30 basis points last week.

2. However, market sentiment has improved, driving downward Treasury yields as U.S. officials confirm that smartphones, xmaccount.computers and other electronics will be temporarily exempted from the toughest tariffs. Still, uncertainty remains, with Trump hinting that new technology-related tariffs may be introduced.

3. Megan Greene, an economist at the Bank of England (BoE), said the impact of tariffs on UK inflation remains uncertain, while currency volatility increases xmaccount.complexity. Meanwhile, traders continue to expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year.

4. This week, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release employment and inflation reports, which may have further impact on market sentiment and Treasury yields.

The ECB will not ask banks to suspend dividend payments despite tariff uncertainty

1. ECB Supervisory xmaccount.committee Chairman Claudia Buch said the ECB is monitoring banks' profit distribution plans as usual.

2. Asked whether the ECB would require mainland European banks to preserve capital and suspend dividends as they did during the COVID-19 pandemic, Buch said regulators were as usual in monitoring banks’ plans to return profits to shareholders.

3. She stressed: "We are obviously in a different situation now than during the epidemic." This shows that the ECB believes that the current tariff uncertainty, although there is, has not yet reached the level of needing strict measures similar to those during the epidemic.

The German economy faces the dual challenges of US trade policy and global growth

1. The German Ministry of Economic Affairs pointed out that the impact of US trade policy has not yet been reflected in current economic indicators, which means that the German economy may face potential uncertainty in the future.

2. The German Ministry of Economic Affairs emphasized that the risk of a sharp slowdown in global economic growth has increased significantly, which will also have an impact on the German economy and reflect the transmission role of the global economic situation on the German economy.

3. Affected by the US tariff policy, Germany's export situation faces extremely high uncertainty. As an important part of the German economy, its increased uncertainty may pose challenges to Germany's economic growth.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:18 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, and is now at 1.1372, an increase of 0.18%. Before New York, the euro steadily rose against the dollar in recent intraday trading, ready to challenge the resistance level of 1.1470. Due to the dominance of short-term bullish trends, positive letters appear in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator after the pair successfully absorbs overbought conditions, as the pair of currencies has successfully absorbed the overbought conditions.support this move.

GBP/USD: As of 20:18 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3176, an increase of 0.80%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, after a previous slight rebound, GBPUSD prices rose in recent intraday trading to make profits and alleviate the obvious overbought situation shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This healthy technical adjustment restores the positive momentum of the pair, allowing it to start recovering and move up confidently with strong technical factors.

Spot gold: As of 20:18 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3222.93, a drop of 0.46%. Before New York, gold prices fell in trading on the day as it tried to gain positive momentum, which could help it recover and rise again. In addition to trying to get rid of some of the obvious overbought conditions shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), especially when some negative signals start to appear, the overall short-term trend remains strong and bullish.

Spot silver: As of 20:18 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 32.318, an increase of 0.17%. Before New York, silver prices rose strongly in recent intraday trading to confirm a break above the current resistance of $32.00, an increase that occurred after the price successfully lifted its overbought conditions (generated by (RSI)) and was dominated by bull correction waves along the trend line in the short term.

Crude oil market: As of 20:18 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 62.410, an increase of 1.48%. Before New York, crude oil prices rose in its recent intraday trading, challenging the key resistance level of $61.50, supported by the emergence of short-term bullish correction waves and the emergence of positive signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI). However, the price also faces a strong obstacle, which is the resistance of the EMA50.

4. Institutional View

Dutch International: Suspension of interest rate cuts is no longer the choice of the ECB interest rate setter. The U.S. imposes tariffs on European goods and Washington's protectionThe righteous policy has rekindled concerns about the economic growth of the euro zone.

2. Brzeski mentioned that Europe's investment plans in defense and infrastructure seem to bring more optimistic prospects to the eurozone. However, the strengthening of the euro and the falling energy prices have increased the anti-inflationary force created by the current trade tensions on the eurozone.

3. He stressed that while the ECB appears to be considering a moratorium on a recent series of rate cuts, they will have no choice but to continue to cut rates at their meeting Thursday.

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: EU pharmaceutical product exports have grown strongly. Analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 14" was carefully xmaccount.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

After doing something, there will always be experience and lessons. In order to facilitate future work, we must analyze, study, summarize and concentrate the experience and lessons of previous work, and raise it to the theoretical level to understand it.