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Increased expectations of a ceasefire weighed on oil prices, gold soared, and the movement of US military aircraft carriers attracted attention

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market xmaccount.commentary]: Rising armistice expectations suppress oil prices, gold surges, and the movement of US military aircraft carriers attracts attention." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

Global Market Overview

On Tuesday, Trump once again signaled a truce, willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, while there were signs that Iran's leadership may be open to negotiations to end the war.

The U.S. dollar index fell back from highs and finally closed down 0.6% at 99.88, hitting a new low in more than a week; U.S. Treasury bond yields fell across the board, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield closing at 4.3230%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate, fell slightly to 3.8030%.

As the market hopes that the conflict in the Middle East will end quickly, spot gold continued to rebound, rising by more than 150 US dollars during the day, and finally closed up 3.46% at US$4,667.38 per ounce, but still recorded a The worst monthly performance since October 2008; spot silver stood above the $75 mark and finally closed up 7.21% at $75.15 per ounce, but it recorded the worst monthly performance since September 2011.

The prospect of possible de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East caused a sharp turn in the oil market. After the Iranian president said he was willing to end the war with guarantees, international oil prices plunged on the news. WTI crude oil closed down 3.31% to US$101.81 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 5.46% to US$102.09 per barrel.

Overnight market review

U.S. stocks: The three major U.S. stock indexes rose sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 2.48%, the S&P 500 Index rising 2.9%, and the Nasdaq xmaccount.composite Index rising 3.8%, all recording their largest single-day gains since May 12 last year. Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose more than 5%, Pinduoduo (PDD.O) rose 3.8%, and Intel (INTC.O)) rose 7%, and Tesla (TSLA.O) rose more than 4%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 2.7%, NIO (NIO.N) rose 9%, and Baidu (BIDU.O) rose more than 4%. Looking at monthly performance, the S&P 500 fell 5.1% in March, the Nasdaq fell 4.75%, and the Dow fell 5.38%. The Dow ended its 10-consecutive month of gains and recorded its largest monthly decline since September 2022.

European stocks: All major European stock indexes closed higher, with Germany's DAX30 index closing up 0.52%, Britain's FTSE 100 index closing up 0.48%, France's CAC40 index closing up 0.57%, and the European Stoxx 50 index closing up 0.5%.

Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index rose 0.15%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.86%. The trading volume of the Hang Seng Index reached HK$255.76 billion. On the market, home appliance stocks, pharmaceutical outsourcing concepts, banks, sporting goods and other sectors were active throughout the day, with storage concepts, optical xmaccount.communications, semiconductors, and coal stocks among the top losers. Asymlink (06821.HK) rose by more than 13%, Midea Group (00300.HK) rose by nearly 7%, Bank of China Hong Kong (02388.HK) rose by more than 5%, and 361 Degrees (01361.HK) rose by more than 4%; Tianshu Zhixin (09903.HK) fell by more than 12%, GigaDevice (03986.HK) fell by more than 8%, Cambridge Technology (06166.HK) fell by more than 9%, and China Coal Energy (01898.HK) fell by more than 5%.

A-shares: The three major A-share indexes fluctuated downwards. As of the close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 0.8%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange xmaccount.component Index fell 1.81%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.7%. On the market, all sectors generally fell, with rail transit equipment concepts rising against the market, with Shenzhou High-speed Railway, China Railway Industry and other stocks rising by the daily limit; xmaccount.commercial aerospace concept stocks were active, with Shenjian shares 4 consecutive boards; the Fujian sector strengthened, with Minfa Aluminum and Mindong Electric Power rising by the daily limit; in addition, innovative drug concepts, banks, brewing and other sectors were among the top gainers; lithium mining concepts, semiconductors, coal, petroleum and other sectors were among the top losers. About 4,400 stocks in the market fell, with a total turnover of about 2 trillion yuan.

Domestic market news

1. PMI returned to the expansion range in March: Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) in March was 50.4%, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, and the xmaccount.comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%. The three major indexes all ended two consecutive months of contraction and returned to the expansion range, indicating that enterprises have accelerated their resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival and that my country's economic prosperity has rebounded.

2. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations: The People's Bank of China carried out a 32.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation using a fixed interest rate and quantity bidding method to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system.

3. The regular meeting of the Monetary Policy xmaccount.committee was held: The first quarter regular meeting of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy xmaccount.committee in 2026 was held on March 26. The meeting recommended that the intensity, rhythm and timing of policy implementation should be grasped based on the domestic and international economic and financial situations.Maintain sufficient liquidity, promote low xmaccount.comprehensive social financing costs, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

4. Nine departments issued documents to promote the Internet of Things industry: Nine departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Action Plan for Promoting Innovation and Development of the Internet of Things Industry (2026-2028)." The plan proposes that by 2028, the scale of the core Internet of Things industry will strive to exceed 3.5 trillion yuan, the number of terminal connections will reach tens of billions, and 1 billion application fields will be cultivated.

5. The State Administration for Market Regulation rectifies "involving" xmaccount.competition: The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice to focus on preventing and controlling "involving" xmaccount.competition in key industries and fields such as the platform economy, photovoltaics, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, etc., in order to maintain the market order of fair xmaccount.competition.

International Market News

1. The Federal Reserve's "wait-and-see" stance: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that under the energy shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East, the Federal Reserve is inclined to temporarily "ignore" such supply shocks and keep interest rates unchanged. But he warned that if inflation expectations become unmoored, action will have to be taken.

Fed Governor Milan still calls for interest rate cuts, and it is expected that interest rates will be cut by 100 basis points this year.

New York Fed President Williams pointed out that the conflict is causing "significant supply shocks" that are both pushing up price pressure and suppressing economic activity.

2. The Bank of Japan warned of the risk of delaying interest rate hikes: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that if interest rate hikes continue to be delayed, long-term interest rates may accelerate upward. The Senate passed an interim budget of 8.56 trillion yen for fiscal year 2026.

S&P maintains Japan's sovereign rating of A+/A-1, but warns that further sharp depreciation of the yen may trigger a downward revision.

3. South Korea activates emergency response mechanism: The Korean Financial Services xmaccount.commission launched an emergency response mechanism in the financial sector. The Finance Minister warned that if oil prices exceed US$120 per barrel, the policy of restricting travel may be expanded. The Reserve Bank of India introduced new regulations to curb rupee short selling.

4. Iran’s legislative control of the Strait: The National Security xmaccount.committee of the Iranian Parliament passed the "Strait of Hormuz Management Plan", establishing the control role of the Iranian armed forces, explicitly prohibiting the passage of ships from the United States, Israel, and countries that have unilaterally imposed sanctions on Iran, and plans to impose tolls on passing ships.

5. Trump issued a tough threat: U.S. President Trump put pressure on Iran for a ceasefire, threatening to "totally destroy" all Iranian power plants, oil wells and Khark Island if an agreement is not reached. The White House said Trump hopes to reach a deal with Iran by April 6.

6. The G7 emergency meeting was held: The energy ministers, finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven (G7) held an emergency meeting. After the meeting, they made a statement promising to closely monitor the situation and "be prepared to take coordinated action when necessary" to maintain the stability of the global energy market.

Today’s main financial data and events

①09:45 China’s March RatingDog Manufacturing PMI

②14:30 Swiss February actual retail sales annual rate

③15:50 French March manufacturing PMI final value

④15:55 German March manufacturing PMI final value

⑤16:00 Euro zone March manufacturing PMI final value

⑥16:30 UK March manufacturing PMI final value Value

⑦17:00 Euro zone unemployment rate in February

⑧20:15 U.S. ADP employment in March

⑨20:30 U.S. retail sales monthly rate in February

⑩21:05 Fed Musallem talks about monetary policy

21:10 Fed Governor Barr talks about AI

21:45 US March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final Value

22:00 US March ISM Manufacturing PMI

22:00 US January xmaccount.commercial Inventory Monthly Rate

22:30 US EIA Crude Oil Inventory for the Week to March 27

22:30 US to 3 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories for the week of March 27

22:30 EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories from the United States to the week of March 27

01:30 the next day The Bank of Canada released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting

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Increased expectations of a ceasefire weighed on oil prices, gold soared, and the movement of US military aircraft carriers attracted attention

Global Market Overview

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Domestic market news

International Market News

Today’s main financial data and events

Related News

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