Oil prices soared by more than 13%, interest rate hike expectations increased, gold prices fell below the 4,700 mark, and Trump vowed to continue to attack Iran

Basic news

In early trading in the Asian market on Friday (April 3, Beijing time), gold and crude oil trading was suspended throughout the day due to Good Friday. However, gold prices fell on Thursday and finally closed below US$4,700 per ounce, affected by the strength of the US dollar. Strongly affected by rising expectations for interest rate hikes; oil prices surged more than 13% on Thursday, with U.S. crude oil standing at $112 per barrel, the largest single-day absolute increase since 2020, as U.S. President Trump vowed to continue to attack Iran and did not give a timetable for ending hostilities or reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down slightly 0.13% to 46504.67 points, the S&P 500 Index up 0.11% to 6582.69 points, and the Nasdaq xmaccount.composite Index up 0.18% to 21879.18 points. Affected by the disturbances in the Middle East and soaring oil prices, the market opened lower in early trading, but then diplomatic signals such as Iran and Oman drafting a protocol for passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the United Kingdom said that many countries were discussing solutions eased supply concerns and investor sentiment stabilized.

All three major stock indexes recorded their largest weekly gains in four months this week, the first weekly rise in six weeks: the S&P 500 rose 3.36%, the Nasdaq rose 4.44%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.96%.

In terms of sectors, utilities and real estate stocks performed better, while the consumer discretionary sector led the decline as Tesla's delivery volume hit its weakest quarter in a year and its stock price fell 5.4%.

In addition, BlueOwl set a redemption limit on its retail funds, causing nervousness in the private credit market. The market will next watch SpaceX secretly file for IPOPlease look forward to Friday's non-farm payrolls data. Before the Good Friday holiday, the VIX fear index fell to 23.87 points.

Gold Market

Gold prices fell on Thursday, affected by the strength of the U.S. dollar and rising expectations for interest rate hikes. Spot gold fell 2.2% to $4,651.35 per ounce, and U.S. gold futures closed down 2.8% to $4,679.70. U.S. President Trump stated that he would continue to launch attacks on Iran and vowed to blow Iran back to the "Stone Age". Oil prices rose accordingly, exacerbating inflation concerns and weakening the possibility of interest rate cuts, putting pressure on gold, which does not generate interest.

Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict on February 28, spot gold has fallen by 12%. Market sentiment was also hit by the Turkish central bank's gold reserves, which dropped by more than 118 tons in two weeks (from 69.1 tons to 702.5 tons last week). On the demand side, gold in India traded at a premium for the first time in two months, boosted by weaker gold prices.

In terms of other precious metals, spot silver fell 3.7% to $72.38, platinum rose 0.9% to $1,981.95, and palladium rose 1.9% to $1,497.00.

Oil market

International oil prices jumped sharply on Thursday, with U.S. crude oil closing up more than 13% at US$112.06 per barrel, the largest single-day absolute increase since 2020; Brent crude oil futures closed up 7.78% at US$109.03 per barrel. Affected by US President Trump's vow to continue to attack Iran and no timetable for ending hostilities or reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump said that he would launch an extremely violent strike in the next two to three weeks, vowing to bomb Iran back to the "Stone Age", exacerbating market concerns about long-term oil supply disruptions. While Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, traders' focus turned to whether Iran's oil infrastructure is at risk.

The recent U.S. crude oil contract has seen its largest premium over the Brent contract in the past year, and the premium between the front-month contract and the far-month contract has also hit a record high. Dallas Fed President Logan said that if the war is resolved quickly, the economic impact may be relatively mild, but the outlook remains unclear.

Citigroup predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil in the second half of the year will be US$95 per barrel in the baseline scenario, and can reach US$130 in an optimistic scenario; JPMorgan Chase said that oil prices may rise to US$120-130 in the short term, and if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until mid-May, it may exceed US$150.

Foreign Market

The U.S. dollar index rebounded sharply on Thursday after falling for two consecutive days, with the U.S. dollar index rising 0.46% to 100.02. Affected by renewed concerns about the conflict in the Middle East, President Trump vowed to launch a more violent attack on Iran in the next two to three weeks, without giving a timetable for reopening the Strait of Hormuz or ending the war. The Iranian military immediately warned that it would launch a more violent attack. The market's expectations for a quick end to the conflict were shattered, and the demand for safe havens heated up again.

The U.S. dollar rose 0.6% against the Swiss franc to0.799, up 0.5% against the yen to 159.57 yen, approaching the 160 mark that may trigger intervention by the Japanese authorities. The euro fell 0.45% to $1.1536, and the pound fell 0.63% to $1.3222, giving up recent gains.

The market is also paying attention to the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which is expected to create 60,000 new jobs in March.

International News

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 99.5%, and the probability of raising interest rates during the year has risen to 14.7%

According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 99.5%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by June is 6.0%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 93.5%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively is 0.5%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by December is 35.1% (25.1% the day before), the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 50.2% (73% the day before), and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively is 14.7% (1.9% the day before).

Russian presidential assistant said the Strait of Hormuz is open to Russia

Russian presidential assistant Ushakov said in an interview with Russian media that day that the Strait of Hormuz is open to Russia. Ushakov said that the situation in the Middle East is serious. He also said that the United States has not made any request to Russia to mediate the situation in the Middle East.

The U.S. military’s bombing of a bridge in Iran may be followed by more attacks on infrastructure

According to Axios reports, the U.S. military launched its first attack on Iran’s major civilian infrastructure on Thursday local time, just hours after Trump threatened to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Age.” The attack on the B-1 Bridge in Karaj near Tehran showed that the US military is expanding its target range and may be just the beginning of attacks on energy, water and transportation infrastructure. A U.S. Defense Department official said more bridges may be struck. The bridge was attacked because it is used by Iran's armed forces to secretly transport missiles and missile xmaccount.components from Tehran to launch sites in western Iran. Missile xmaccount.components are shipped across bridges in large boxes and containers and assembled at the launch site. According to the official, the bridge is also used to provide logistical support to Iranian military forces in Tehran.

Iran attacks Oracle and Amazon data centers

On the evening of April 2, local time, the Naval xmaccount.command of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement stating that it had carried out attacks on the Oracle data center in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, and the Amazon data center in Bahrain.

The Houthis said they would once again join forces with Iran and Hezbollah to attack

Yahya Saraya, spokesman for the Yemeni Houthi armed forces, issued a video statement on the evening of April 2, local time, saying that the Houthis armed forces, Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah once again launched a joint military operation to attack central Israel.A batch of ballistic missiles were launched from targets in the Ravif area to hit key Israeli facilities.

Guterres: “We are on the brink of a broader war”

UN Secretary-General Guterres spoke to the media on the 2nd, once again calling on the United States and Israel to stop the war against Iran, and also called on Iran to stop attacking neighboring countries. Guterres said that this war is causing huge suffering to mankind and has triggered devastating economic consequences. The escalation of the crisis in the Middle East has lasted for more than a month. The scale of destruction continues to expand, indiscriminate attacks are increasing, and attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure continue unabated. "We are on the edge of a broader war."

Argentina announced the expulsion of Iran’s charge d’affaires

Argentina’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced in a statement on the 2nd that Mohsin Sultani Tehrani, the charge d’affaires of the Iranian Embassy in Argentina, was an undesirable person and required him to leave the country within 48 hours. Argentina's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the move was in response to Iran's statement on April 1. The Argentine government designated Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a "terrorist organization" on March 31. Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned the Argentine government's decision on April 1, calling it "illegal and baseless" and would damage bilateral relations.

Iran’s iconic bridge was attacked

On April 2, the Beyik Highway Bridge in Karaj, Iran, known as the tallest bridge in the Middle East and a landmark project in Iran, was attacked and damaged by the United States and Israel. It is reported that this bridge is a benchmark project in the Iranian engineering xmaccount.community and is known as one of the most xmaccount.complex engineering achievements in the world. It is the core road infrastructure of the Tehran-Karaj transportation corridor and was originally planned to be officially put into operation in the near future. The attack caused damage to the main structure of the bridge, and the relevant road sections have been fully closed. The local government issued an emergency reminder, calling on people to avoid traveling to the area. The attack also caused power supply interruptions in parts of Karaj.

IMF releases 2026 U.S. Economic Assessment: Growth is expected to rise to 2.4%, warning that uncertainty in energy prices may put pressure on inflation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the 2026 Article IV Consultation Report of the United States on April 2. The report pointed out that as the impact of tariffs gradually fades and global oil prices fall, U.S. core PCE inflation is expected to return to the 2% policy target in the first half of 2027. The IMF predicts that U.S. GDP growth will accelerate slightly to 2.4% in 2026. However, the IMF also pointed out that the public debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to 123.9%, and the current account deficit is still huge. At the same time, uncertainty about energy prices may put inflation again under pressure.

Iran’s speaker suggested that Wall Street manipulated Washington’s war policy and initiated a vote to announce the list

Iran’s parliament speaker Qalibaf posted on social platforms, claiming to have tracked the flow of funds, accusing a small group of bankers and hedge fund managers of secretly meeting last week and deciding to kidnap Washington’s Iran war policy, and then launched an operation. Qalibaf initiated a poll asking whether "names should be named". The options include "yes" and "no"” and “ Ackerman: Lost the invitation? " (Ackman is an American Jewish wealthy businessman and hedge fund manager). In a total of nearly 16,000 votes, 70% of netizens voted for the "yes" option. This is the first time that Iran has targeted Wall Street financial capital, accusing it of manipulating the U.S. war policy against Iraq. Kalibaf hinted that the relevant list will be announced, but no specific evidence has been disclosed yet.

Domestic News

The scale of my country's new energy storage will exceed 370 million kilowatts in 2030

The "15th Five-Year Plan" outline. It is proposed to solidly promote key technological innovations such as new energy storage, vigorously develop new energy storage, position new energy storage as the core support of the new energy system, and formally include it in the recently released "Energy Storage Industry Research White Paper 2026". " shows that by 2030, my country's cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage will exceed 370 million kilowatts, an increase of more than 1.5 times xmaccount.compared with the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan".

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