Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- The U.S. dollar index held near 99.50 as traders sought to balance Powell's comm
- AUD/USD FX signals, head-and-shoulders pattern signals breakout to the downside
- Multiple sets of data were shocking, but geopolitical accidents caused oil price
- Hong Kong stocks retreated after consecutive gains: falling below the 26,000 mar
- Analysis of the latest trends in gold, US dollar index, Japanese yen, euro, Brit
market news
Trump suddenly announced a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East, and the U.S. dollar index retreated
Wonderful introduction:
Love sometimes does not require the promise of eternal love, but it definitely needs meticulous care and greetings; love sometimes does not need the tragedy of Butterfly Lovers, but it definitely needs the tacit understanding and congeniality of the heart; love sometimes does not need the following of male and female, but it definitely needs the support and understanding of each other.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Trump suddenly announced a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East, and the U.S. dollar index pulled back." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
In Asian trading on Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index hovered around 99.03. The U.S. dollar index held firm on Tuesday, hovering near its highest level in nearly 11 months. Investors are taking a wait-and-see attitude before Trump's deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz; as Iran shows no signs of consent, the war in the Middle East and the blockade of the strait have pushed up energy prices, the U.S. dollar is favored as the most effective safe-haven asset. ING expects the U.S. dollar to remain buying unless a ceasefire or the deadline is significantly delayed. The U.S. dollar index was at 99.852, having hit 100.64 last week, a new high since May 2025.
Analysis of major currency trends
U.S. dollar: As of press time, the U.S. dollar index is hovering around 99.01. As the Iran war pushes up energy prices, stimulates inflation concerns and prompts the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance, the U.S. dollar has gained support. Markets have fully priced in the Federal Reserve to keep the federal funds rate unchanged this month, and borrowing costs are likely to remain stable through the end of the year.



1. Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran
U.S. President Trump posted on the social media "Truth Social" that based on xmaccount.communication with the Prime Minister of Pakistan and the Army Chief of Staff - the two asked me to suspend the devastating attack on Iran tonight, and provided that the Islamic Republic of Iran agrees to fully, immediately and safely open the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend bombing and military strikes against Iran for two weeks. This will be a bilateral ceasefire! The reason for this decision is that we have achieved and exceeded all military goals and have made significant progress in concluding a long-term peace agreement with Iran and achieving peace in the Middle East. We have received the ten-point plan proposed by Iran and believe that this is a feasible basis for negotiations. The United States and Iran have reached agreement on almost all points of dispute in the past, and two weeks will be used to finalize and formally sign the agreement. As President of the United States of America, and on behalf of the nations of the Middle East, I am honored that this longstanding problem is about to be resolved. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
2. The United Nations Security Council failed to pass a resolution to maintain navigation in the Strait of Hormuz
The United Nations Security Council failed to pass a resolution. The resolution "strongly encourages countries that intend to use xmaccount.commercial shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz to coordinate and carry out actions that are proportionate to the situation and for defense purposes to help ensure the safety and security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz." The resolution proposed that such actions could include “convoying merchant ships and xmaccount.commercial vessels,” while also supporting efforts to “prevent any attempt to close, impede, or otherwise interfere with international navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.”
3Polls show: American people are dissatisfied with Trump’s decision on IranConfidence in policy declines
According to US news on the 7th, the latest poll by the US Pew Research Center shows that the American people's confidence in US President Trump's decision-making on the Iran issue has dropped significantly xmaccount.compared with last year. The survey showed that only about one-third of American adults said they were "very" or "somewhat" confident in Trump's decision-making on Iran, down from 44% in August last year. In addition, about 70% of Americans are "very" or "extremely" worried about the rise in oil prices caused by military operations. Most respondents are also worried about risks such as the possibility of US troops being sent to Iran, casualties, and terrorist attacks on the United States.
4. The United States is preparing to hold face-to-face talks with Iran, and Vance may attend
U.S. officials said that the Trump administration is preparing to hold face-to-face negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials in the next few days, and the two sides will work to reach a long-term agreement to end the war between Washington and Tehran. White House press secretary Levitt said: "The possibility of holding face-to-face talks is currently being discussed, but nothing is finalized until an official announcement from the president or the White House." Officials said the talks are likely to be held in Islamabad, with Pakistan serving as a mediator. They added that talks were increasingly likely given the two-week ceasefire announced tonight by the United States and Iran. Trump's special envoy Witkopf, son-in-law Jared Kushner and Vice President Vance are expected to attend, according to officials. Vance is currently visiting Hungary and sources said he may add a stop to his itinerary if the timing is right.
5. Fed Williams: The Iran war will push up overall inflation
New York Fed President Williams said that the impact of the Iran war will push up overall inflation, and the inflation factors it triggers will be directly reflected in the overall inflation data. Taking into account energy factors, the inflation rate should be around 2.75%. The current focus is on overall inflation, and core inflation has not changed much. Tariffs remain an important factor in inflation, and headline inflation is expected to slow later this year. Monetary policy is now well-positioned to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Interest rates are currently at exactly the right level and can be adjusted if necessary. The labor market situation is quite xmaccount.complex, characterized by low hiring and low firings.
Institutional view
1. Analyst: The British economy is weak and the Bank of England is not expected to raise interest rates aggressively
Ebury analyst Enrique Diaz-Alvarez said in a report that although the United Kingdom faces inflation risks, the Bank of England is expected to remain cautious in raising interest rates. He pointed out that British economic growth is weak and labor market conditions are fragile, so Bank of England members will be wary of aggressive interest rate hikes that could plunge the UK into recession. Data shows that investors have now fully priced in two 25 basis point interest rate hikes by the Bank of England before September.
2. Societe Generale: If the Federal Reserve remains unchanged this year, the dollar may remain range-bound
Société GénéraleAnalyst KitJuckes said in a report that if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year as scheduled, the dollar may show range fluctuations. He pointed out that the market expects all G10 central banks except the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Although among the G10 economies, only Sweden is forecast to grow faster than the United States this year. These interest rate expectations limit the extent of the dollar's appreciation. And if the Fed cuts interest rates significantly against the backdrop of high inflation and loose fiscal policy, the dollar is likely to fall.
3. Mitsubishi UFJ: The mild appreciation of the U.S. dollar may reflect underlying economic concerns
Derek Halpenny, a foreign exchange analyst at Bank of Mitsubishi UFJ, said in a report that the U.S. dollar’s mild response to soaring energy prices highlights that the current foundation of the U.S. economy is weaker than when inflation hits in 2022. He noted that while crude oil prices have risen nearly 60% since the conflict began, the U.S. dollar index has strengthened only about 2.5%, and the reaction in foreign exchange markets has been milder than past data suggested. Although the United States is a net exporter of oil, the current price shock may have a larger-than-expected impact on the U.S. economy, hurting business confidence and employment.
(Editor; Xiaoqi)
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Trump suddenly announced a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East, and the U.S. dollar index pulled back". It was carefully xmaccount.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
Sharing is as simple as a gust of wind can bring refreshing, as pure as a flower can bring fragrance. Gradually my dusty heart opened up, and I understood that sharing is actually as simple as the technology.
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here