US bond market sentiment is stable, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 16

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major futures indexes all fell, Dow futures fell 0.83%, S&P 500 futures fell 1.47%, and Nasdaq futures fell 2.26%. European stocks opened lower collectively, with the European Stoke 50 index falling 1.2% on the opening, the German DAX index falling 0.6%, the UK FTSE 100 index falling 0.4%, and the French CAC40 index falling 0.8%.

2. Interpretation of market news

The sentiment of the US bond market is stable, and trade policies dominate market fluctuations

1. The US Treasury market remained stable on Wednesday, with yields flat across the board, showing the market's risk aversion sentiment. Although tech stocks fell about 1.5% due to trade tensions, the Treasury bond market has become a "safe haven" for investors.

2. The Trump trade team is taking a series of measures to try to reach a series of trade agreement templates by intensive negotiations with multiple countries at the same time. This strategy aims to adjust the global trade landscape through multilateral negotiations.

3. The market shows obvious concerns about the uncertainty of trade policy. Although some market participants are optimistic about reaching an agreement, there are also opinions that volatility in trade policy may have a negative impact on market confidence and economic growth expectations.

4. The short-term trading tendency of the US bond market is to maintain recent range volatility, and the 10-year US bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 4.30% and 4.38%. This range volatility reflects the market's cautious attitude in uncertainty.

5. Economic data intensive on Wednesday, including retail sales in March (expected to increase by 1.3%), andIndustrial production (expected to decline by 0.2%), xmaccount.commercial inventory in February (expected to increase by 0.2%) and NAHB housing market index in April (expected to decline to 37). These data will provide further clues to the market regarding the economic outlook.

6. The U.S. Treasury Department will auction $60 billion in 17-week short-term Treasury bonds and $13 billion in reissued 20-year Treasury bonds. The market demand for Treasury bonds will reflect investors' confidence in the economic outlook.

7. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other officials will deliver speeches, and the market will closely monitor its statements on economic prospects and monetary policy.

The yield on German 2-year treasury bonds is too high xmaccount.compared to the stock market

1. London news, the yield on German 2-year treasury bonds has been greatly affected by the stock market recently, and it seems that the valuation is relatively high. According to a one-month regression analysis, the correlation coefficient between the 2-year German Treasury bond yield and the European Stock 600 index was 0.952, showing a strong correlation.

2. From the perspective of longer-term regression analysis, the correlation will decrease. Based on the current data, the yield on the German 2-year government bond is 12.5 basis points lower than the model's predicted value, which is equivalent to less than 2.3 standard deviations.

The wave of resignations from the U.S. Energy Information Administration may affect the release of key data

1. According to five sources, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will lose dozens of employees after the Trump administration makes the latest round of resignation recommendations. This loss of staff could affect the release of the world's most watched energy report.

2. The data released by EIA includes oil and gas production, crude oil and fuel inventory, and price forecasts, etc. These data are used by traders and energy xmaccount.companies as indicators to predict future supply and demand, and have an important impact on prices.

3.A source said that since the beginning of this year, one-third of the EIA's approximately 300-350 employees have left or accepted a buyout. Other sources have also confirmed that the number of resignations is as many as dozens.

4. A source said: "It's hard to say whether these data can continue to be released. I can't imagine how they will maintain the release of weekly energy data over time."

The U.S. 30-year mortgage rate rose to two-month high

1. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate, the most popular U.S. housing loan rate, jumped to 6.81% last week, the highest level in two months. This change happened against the backdrop of intensified financial market turmoil, and President Trump's continued promotion of trade disputes was one of the main reasons.

2. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the average contract rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 20 basis points in the week ended April 11, the largest single-week increase since October 2023. At the same time, the number of mortgage applications has also declined.

3. Mortgage rates are closely related to the 10-year Treasury yield, andWeekly 10-year Treasury yields showed their biggest weekly gain since 2001. The rise in yields reflects a decline in investors' demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, which is related to Trump's actions to suspend some of the new tariffs while imposing tariffs on China.

4.MBA said that more and more home buyers choose adjustable interest rate mortgages because the initial interest rate for such loans is lower than the traditional 30-year fixed interest rate. Last week, adjustable interest rate mortgages accounted for about 9.6% of all mortgage applications, the highest level since November 2023.

Italian government bond issuance is popular, and S&P's rating upgrade helps

1. Italy attracted nearly 11 billion euros (about 12.5 billion US dollars) in its treasury bond issuance on April 16, almost 10 times the amount it plans to raise. Strong demand for the issuance is due to an upward adjustment of the S&P Global's sovereign debt rating on Friday.

2. The Italian Ministry of Finance plans to raise 8 billion euros by issuing a new 7-year BTP and 3 billion euros through a new 30-year inflation-linked BTP. According to the lead manager, the final demand exceeds €50 billion and €53 billion respectively.

3. S&P Global raised its sovereign debt rating from BBB to BBB+, an unexpected move after Rome halved its economic growth expectations and expected public debt to increase this year and next year. S&P pointed out that Italy's decline in budget deficit, maintaining resilience in exports and high domestic savings rates are the reasons for its upgrade, while the European Central Bank will control inflation pressures.

4. S&P said the new rating outlook is stable.

The Russian Central Bank survey shows that the key interest rate is expected to be 20% in 2025

1. The Russian Central Bank survey of analysts shows that the average key interest rate in 2025 is expected to be 20%, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 20.1%.

2. Currently, the key interest rate of the Russian Central Bank is 21%. A Reuters survey conducted in late March showed that analysts expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at its next policy meeting on April 25.

The EU prepares for uncertainty in trade negotiations

1. EU Judicial xmaccount.commissioner Michael McGrath said at a press conference that although EU officials are still working to reach a trade agreement with the U.S. government, the EU also needs to prepare for possible situations where an agreement cannot be reached.

2. EU Trade xmaccount.commissioner Maroche Sevchovich met with U.S. reciprocal officials this week to try to advance negotiations, showing that both sides are still actively seeking solutions. However, McGrath stressed that the EU must be prepared simultaneously for possible breakdowns in negotiations, although the EU hopes that this will not happen.

Powell will elaborate on economic views, and the market is concerned about inflation and employment

1. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the Chicago Economic Club at 23:30 Beijing time, explaining his views on the United StatesViews on inflation and employment situation. Investors are looking forward to getting clues about the Fed's policy tendencies.

2. The uncertainty brought by Trump's tariff remarks has made the market pay special attention to inflation expectations. Powell pointed out in his last speech that tariffs may bring the dual challenges of rising inflation and slowing economic growth, but he was on the wait-and-see attitude at the time, saying it was too early to judge the monetary policy path.

3. Powell's speech will face more xmaccount.complexity in more tariff news. Although Trump suspended some tariffs, the U.S. government is still considering imposing new tariffs on drugs and semiconductors. The market is concerned about whether Powell will adjust his policy stance due to tariff uncertainty.

4. Federal Reserve Director Waller previously stated that if tariffs are lowered, the Federal Reserve should keep interest rates unchanged and gradually cut interest rates; if tariffs remain high, the unemployment rate may rise, and the Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates more actively. Other policy makers are more concerned about rising inflation expectations and may support maintaining high interest rates or even hikes.

5. Recent data show that inflation has slowed down and the labor market remains strong. Powell's speech will provide markets with key information on how the Fed balances inflation and employment.

Bank U.S. survey showed that investors' allocation of bonds hit a record increase

Bank U.S. global fund manager survey in April showed that the allocation of bonds hit a record increase. In a press release released with the investigation, Bank of America said that xmaccount.compared with history, investors over-allocate bonds, as well as utilities, essentials and UK stocks. The pursuit of bonds is caused by U.S. capital outflows and global fiscal panic. While bond allocations have seen record growth, global stock allocations have fallen to their lowest levels since July 2023.

OPEC received oil production xmaccount.compensation plans from eight countries

OPEC said on Wednesday that it had received the latest oil production xmaccount.compensation plans from eight countries, whose oil production exceeded voluntary production quotas within OPEC+. These countries are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.

The bidding for the third batch of reserve rice in Japan will be launched on the 23rd

According to Kyodo News, Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced on the 16th that it will implement the third batch of bids aimed at additional release of government reserve rice from the 23rd to the 25th. The target of this project is to produce 100,000 tons of meters in 2023, and the winning large-scale acquisition units will receive supply. Whether this move can curb the continued high rice prices has become the focus. The Agriculture and Water Province has implemented two bids in March. A total of 212,000 tons of reserve rice are being put into place one after another, and have been put on the shelves in some stores since late March. According to the plan, monthly releases will be insisted on around July before the launch of the new rice, and the release volume after May will be determined based on factors such as circulation conditions.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:16 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, now at 1.1355, an increase of 0.64%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, EuroThe dollar price fell on the last trading day, taking a brief break to collect its recent gains, trying to get some positive momentum that contributes to its rise, and (RSI) there are positive signs.

GBP/USD: As of 20:16 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3265, an increase of 0.27%.纽市盘前，GBPUSD的价格在最近的盘中交易中上涨，此前它成功地通过卸载（RSI）上出现的一些超买条件获得了积极的动力，现在，我们见证了积极的重叠信号的开始，在1.3200水平以上的稳定交易中，受到短期强劲牛市的支持。

Spot gold: As of 20:16 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3307.39, an increase of 2.41%.纽市盘前，黄金价格在最近的盘中交易中扩大了涨幅，受短期形成的旗帜图案的影响，在最后一次交易中成功超越了3300美元的主要阻力，这是由主要看涨趋势的主导地位和短期次要趋势线支撑的，显示了这一趋势的强度。

Spot silver: As of 20:16 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 32.946, an increase of 2.05%.纽市盘前，白银价格在盘中水平上涨，达到我们的价格目标32.90美元，受到短期看涨修正趋势的支撑，并沿着陡峭的趋势线交易，RSI上出现积极信号。

Crude oil market: As of 20:16 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 61.220, an increase of 0.82%.纽市盘前，原油价格在最后一个交易日上涨，随着（RSI）开始出现积极信号，在达到与价格走势相比夸张的超卖区域后，形成积极的背离，这使得价格超过EMA50的阻力，并攻击先前形成的倒头肩底形态的颈线。

4、机构观点

凯投宏观：特朗普关税将使欧元区通胀继续下降

凯投宏观经济学家杰克·艾伦-雷诺兹在一份报告中写道，华盛顿的贸易关税将确保欧元区通胀继续缓解。 Some potentialPrice pressure remains, especially in the service industry. But he said that this will ease as businesses lower costs and wage growth slows. U.S. tariff escalation will strengthen the trend of slowing price increases. In addition to lowering energy prices, total demand will also weaken.

The above content is all about "[XM official website]: The sentiment in the US bond market is stable, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 16" was carefully xmaccount.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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