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On the fourth day of the 100 integer mark guard battle, where will the US dollar index go?
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: On the fourth day of the 100 integer mark guard battle, where will the US dollar index go?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Wednesday (April 16), the US dollar index continued its weak trend, falling below the 99.50 mark for a time, and the long-shoulder struggle became increasingly fierce. The market shows that the US dollar index continues to be under pressure and is currently testing important technical support areas.
State Analysis
The US dollar index faces a lot of pressure, mainly due to the continued weakening of the attractiveness of US assets. Concerns about growing tensions in the U.S. with major trading partnerships are heating up in the world. It is reported that the Trump administration has launched a new round of investigations into key minerals and may impose new tariffs, a move seen as a further escalation of trade frictions.
At the same time, sources from multiple parties revealed that the Trump administration is considering using tariff negotiations to prompt U.S. trading partners to reduce economic and trade exchanges with other economies. This strategy may further exacerbate uncertainty in the global trade environment.
The latest consumer confidence survey data released by the New York Fed shows that U.S. residents' expectations for future inflation have increased significantly, while employment prospects and credit conditions have significantly weakened. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool shows that the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by about 85 basis points this year, but the May meeting may remain unchanged.
The market focus shifts to March U.S. retail sales data tonight, which may reveal the extent to which the current uncertain environment affects consumer spending. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak later in the U.S. time period, and his remarks may provide new guidance on the trend of the dollar.
Technical analyst interpretation:
From 60-minute chartFrom the perspective of this, the US dollar index shows a significant downward trend, and the price has approached the psychological threshold of 99.20. The MACD indicator shows that the short-term kinetic energy is enhanced, with DIFF being -0.0922, DEA being -0.0239, and the MACD value being -0.1367. The bar chart continues to be below the zero axis, indicating that the short-term downward pressure remains. The RSI indicator is at the 41.3075 level, located in a neutral and weak area, but has not yet entered a severe oversold state, which means there is still room for continued downward in the short term. It is worth noting that obvious resistance has formed around 100.3100. This position has tried to break up many times but failed, further confirming the current downward trend. The current price hovers around 99.50. If it cannot stabilize, the next support level may be around 99.3500 and 99.0150.
From the daily chart, the US dollar index is in a larger-level downward channel. The price has been falling from the high point of 110.1699, forming a clear downward trend line. Recently, the price has fallen below the 100 integer mark and is currently trading around 99.50. The daily MACD indicator shows that the DIFF is -1.3009, the DEA is -0.9727, the MACD value is -0.6564, and the bar chart expands, confirming the acceleration of the medium-term downward trend. The RSI indicator is located at the low level of 26.5350 and is already oversold, suggesting a possible technical rebound. However, from the perspective of trend integrity, unless the price can re-establish the downward trend line of 100.3280, the medium-term short pattern will be difficult to reverse.
Prevention of Market Sentiment
Current market sentiment is obviously inclined to be cautious. As the US dollar index fell below the 100 integer mark, bull sentiment was severely hit. Technical indicators show that the market has entered the oversold area, but panic has not yet fully exploded, which shows that although market participants are pessimistic about the prospects of the US dollar, there has been no panic selling.
The bulls actively defended in the range of 99.50-100.00, trying to build support; while the bears continued to put pressure on the unfavorable fundamental factors, intending to further suppress the price. This long-short game has aggravated market volatility and also provided short-term traders with the opportunity to seize the band.
Future Outlook
Short-term Outlook: The US dollar index may continue to be troubled by downward pressure, and 99.0150 will become the key support level. If it falls below this position, it may trigger a new round of selling, with the target pointing to the 98.50 or even 98.00 area. Since the RSI indicator is already in the oversold area, the possibility of a technical rebound cannot be ruled out, but the rebound height may be limited to the resistance range of 100.30-100.50.
Medium- and long-term outlook: Unless fundamentals show substantial improvements, such as the Federal Reserve's release of more hawkish signals or the U.S. economic data significantly exceeds expectations, the US dollar index will continue to operate on the downward channel. From the perspective of wave theory, it may be in the three waves of decline at present, and the xmaccount.complete five waves of decline structure has not been xmaccount.completed yet.This means that even if there is a rebound, it may be just a four-wave adjustment, and there is still a risk of a new low in the future.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: On the fourth day of the 100 integer mark guard battle, where will the US dollar index go?", which was carefully xmaccount.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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