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When will the US dollar/Canada return to a low-lying valuation of 1.36?
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM official website]: When will the US dollar/Canadian dollar return to a low-lying valuation of 1.36?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Tuesday (September 9), the US dollar against the Canadian dollar traded above 1.3800 before the trading session, with limited intraday high and low fluctuations. Analysis pointed out that the Canadian dollar's performance this week is still "dead", even though the US dollar generally weakens and xmaccount.commodity currencies are generally boosted; the Australian dollar/Canadian dollar is a relatively high level since the end of 2024.
At the same time, the market is waiting for the revised report of the US non-farm employment (NFP) benchmark at 22:00 today. The US dollar index (DXY) once hit a six-week low to around 97.25 during the day; Canada's global employment momentum weakened, making the market expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to continue to lower interest rates in subsequent meetings; the US dollar/Canadian 2-year swap spread is generally stable and hovering near the recent low.
Fundamentals:
From the perspective of macro pricing, the three main lines affecting exchange rates are clear:
First, on the United States, the market's bet on the Fed's interest rate cut next week continues to heat up, driving the dollar spread and risk premium to fall, DXY once fell to 97.25, which provides a respite for most major currencies; but since today's NFP benchmark revision only covers until March 2025, and the final version will not be implemented until February 2026's employment report , The uncertainty of the revision makes the market choose to converge positions before the event;
Second, in Canada, the latest employment and salary guidance is relatively soft, and in line with the BoC xmaccount.communications, the lower terminal interest rate path is gradually denominated, and the Canadian dollar is under pressure in the cross-trade;
Second, at the xmaccount.commodity and mergers and acquisitions, the news that AngloAmerican/Teck reached a merger through the main share exchange method has limited marginal impact on the Canadian dollar - neither changing the Canadian mining foreign exchangeThe pace of flow is also difficult to quickly improve the pro-cyclical attributes and capital inflows of the Canadian dollar. Based on the above, the macro pull on the US dollar/Canada shows a misalignment of "the US dollar is weaker - the Canadian dollar is weaker", causing the nominal exchange rate to remain at a high fluctuation.
Technical:
Based on the 30-minute K-line chart, the Bollinger band converges significantly, and bandwidth xmaccount.compression forms a typical sign of "Bolinger band extrusion" - upper rail 1.3812, lower rail 1.3793, middle rail 1.3802, current price 1.3809 close to the lower edge of the upper rail, indicating that short-term bulls try to stabilize the potential energy above 1.3800. The price structure of the past day showed an "in-completion trend": Continue to consolidate within the range on Monday. As for momentum indicators, MACD is located near the zero axis, DIFF is about -0.0000 and DEA is about -0.0002. The bar chart turns positive to 0.0003 and amplifies moderately, reflecting the short-term momentum turning from negative to positive but has not yet formed a trend of volume breakthrough; RSI (14) rebounds to around 55 and maintains an upward slope, leaving the lower edge of the neutral range, indicating that bullish market sentiment has a slight upper hand but is still mild.
In terms of price, 1.3812 (Boleiner's upper rail) constitutes real resistance. If it is effectively broken, the previous rebound high point 1.3833 and the 1.3843 above will become the resistance band of the next ladder; the 1.3793 (Boleiner's lower rail) below and the last two low points 1.3792/1.3787 are superimposed as dense support areas. Overall, the technical sideways trend is given by the technical sideways trend of "low fluctuation, upper edge testing". The key to the short-term is whether the upper rail break can achieve the indicator resonance of the MACD zero axis upstream and the further increase of RSI.
Future Outlook:
Short-term (event-driven)—Before and after the release of the NFP benchmark revision, the exchange rate may run at a rhythm of "breakthrough-back-test-re-select". In the upward situation, if 1.3812 is effectively broken through and stands firmly above the middle track, the price is expected to test 1.3833. If the further upwards, observe the selling pressure reaction of the 1.3843 line; if the news is extremely unfavorable to the US dollar, technical price pursuit may cause the upper edge to be pulled wide, but MACD must be accompanied by the zero axis to pass over to verify that the strong trend is established. In the downward situation, if 1.3793 breaks down and the momentum is amplified, 1.3792 and 1.3787 will be backtested in turn. At that time, we need to be wary of the failure of the pullback of the lower track "support and resistance". The overall range is still observed with the "pre-event box" idea of 1.3790-1.3820, and tends to choose the direction after the message is delivered.
Risk Points and Observation Points—(1) Direction and Amplitude of NFP Baseline Revision; (2) The marginal change of the USD/CAD 2-year swap spread at the low level, once it leaves the low point and widens, it will quickly change its relative attractiveness assessment to the Canadian dollar; (3) The elastic conduction of bulk xmaccount.commodity prices on the Canadian dollar, especially the impact on the crossing plate when the oil-gold scissors gap changes; (4) The re-expansion of Bollinger bandwidth and the MACD zero axis position will be the "quantitative gate" for the success or failure of the trend; (5) If the Australian dollar/CAD continues to refresh from 202At a high level since the end of the four years, the demand for "Canadian short hedging" across the market may periodically flow back to the US dollar/Canadian, bringing noise-like fluctuations.
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