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French Prime Minister "chooses one of five" and the euro sticks to 1.17

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: French Prime Minister "choose one of five", the euro sticks to 1.17". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On the evening of Tuesday (September 9), the euro and the dollar exchange rate remained volatile, and fell slightly by 0.13% during the day. This trend reflects the market's continued sensitivity to the uncertainty of the French political situation. French President Macron is facing the ruling challenges brought by the fragmentation of parliament. After former Prime Minister François Barua stepped down, the selection of new prime ministers has become the focus of the market, directly affecting the fiscal outlook of the eurozone. Currently, the euro stabilizes near the 1.17 mark, showing some resilience, but fluctuations in global risk appetite and divergence in transatlantic policies add variables to the exchange rate trend. Traders need to pay close attention to the evolution of France's political situation and its potential impact on the euro.

Brand analysis: Five candidates and economic policy

The power vacuum in French politics stems from structural contradictions after parliamentary elections. Macron lacks a majority. The new prime minister needs to promote the passage of the 2026 budget in the split National Assembly. The budget is not only a blueprint for fiscal tightening, but also a touchstone for the stability of the eurozone. As the 2027 presidential election approaches, the opposition lacks motivation to cooperate, and the xmaccount.complexity of political game is intensifying. If the new government cannot quickly build consensus, the French deficit problem may ferment, dragging down the performance of the euro. The following analyzes the economic policy orientations of the five candidates and their potential impacts.

Sebastian Le Cornie: Pragmatic and Coordinating Party

Sebastian Le Cornie, 39, is currently the Minister of Defense. He once led Macron's re-election campaign and demonstrated his cross-party coordination ability. He moved from conservative to neutral camp, with the far-right wing hinting at the possibility of conditional support, showing its potential to bridge the left and right differences. Le Kerny's policy tendency is pragmatic, giving priority to moderate spending control to avoid intensifying social conflicts. Analysts at a well-known institution pointed out that if he takes office, France may provide a buffer to the euro in the short term through gradual fiscal adjustments, but left-wing resistance may limit the depth of policy. Traders xmaccount.commented that Le Kearney's appointment may "ease excessive market concerns about the deficit" because his cross-fact background helps budget negotiations and supports the euro in the short term.

Catherine Waterland: Conservative Integration

Catherine Waterland, 65 years old, is currently the Minister of Labor, and is a traditional conservative. He served in the Jacques Chirac government. She is seen as a key figure in Macron's expansion of the center-right alliance, aiming to alleviate social tensions and win over conservative forces. Waterland's policies may focus on labor market reforms to balance employment and fiscal pressures, but the pace of austerity may slow down due to parliamentary xmaccount.compromise. On the 1st, European Economic Observer believes that her appointment will “relieve market panic about the out-of-control deficit” because its conservative roots help push for a moderate budget. This direction is good for the euro in the short term, but the long-term effect depends on the results of the parliamentary game.

Eric Lombard: Defender of Fiscal Discipline

Eric Lombard, 67, is currently the finance minister and a veteran banker background, dominated the 44 billion euro deficit reduction plan during the turbulent period, involving tax adjustments and spending xmaccount.compression. He opposed corporate tax increases, but did not rule out tax increases for high-income groups, and denied that France was facing a Greek-style debt crisis. Lombard has a harmonious relationship with the Socialist Party leader, showing a pragmatic mediation style, and has advantages in fragmented parliament. Well-known media quoted its statement as saying that the budget target needs "realistic adjustment" and may curb the short-term downward pressure on the euro, but the uncertainty of long-term deficit control remains. , Forex practitioners believe that if Lombard is appointed, the market's confidence in the fiscal path will increase, which will be beneficial to the short-term performance of the euro.

Pierre Moskovic: Strict Audit Sect

Pierre Moskovic, 67 years old, is currently the head of a public audit agency. He is famous as an economist. He held important positions during the euro zone crisis and advocated EU-level fiscal discipline. He recently warned France's deficit to pose a "deadly threat" and advocated accelerated austerity. If Moscovic takes office, France may promote strict budget control, which may benefit the stability of the euro but may trigger a domestic rebound. The agency account pointed out that its tough fiscal stance "may inject long-term confidence into the euro, but it needs to be vigilant against the risks of social unrest in the short term" because its policies need to balance the EU framework with domestic pressure.

Bernard Kazenaf: Social Balancer

Bernard Kazenaf, 62 years old, former socialist prime minister, is known for his crisis management. He has responded to major security incidents and demonstrated a calm style. His economic policies tend toward social balance, emphasize stability first, and may soften the intensity of austerity and give priority to social expenditure. If Kazenaf takes office, it may calm market sentiment in the short term and alleviate political uncertainty, but may intensify deficit concerns in the long term. In the above, the agency xmaccount.commented that Kazenaf's policy "will test the euro's tolerance to political risks" because it needs to balance domestic demands under EU fiscal rules, and its short-term impact on the euro is relatively weak.

Politics Differences and Euro Impact

The economic policies of the five candidates differentiate between fiscal austerity and social consensus. Le Kerny and Watland tend to integrate the center and right, and priority is given to budget adoption; Lombard emphasizes fiscal discipline but is flexible; Moscovic advocates tough austerity; Kazenaf prefers social expenditure. Macron's camp needs to promote policies in parliamentary xmaccount.compromise, and the risk of implementation of discounts cannot be ignored. Analyses from well-known institutions show that the French deficit problem is the weak point of the eurozone. If the new prime minister cannot stabilize the situation within a few months, the European Central Bank's easing space will be limited, pushing up euro volatility. A senior user pointed out: "The French political situation is in a stalemate, which will amplify the euro's sensitivity to geopolitical risks, but under the scale factor, the effect of risk aversion to the US dollar is not as severe as that of the United States." European political noise amplifies risk aversion sentiment with limited amplification, which is more reflected in regional fluctuations, as the eurozone economic volume and liquidity buffer the impact.

Technical analysis: Short-term adjustments under bulls' dominance

The 4-hour chart of the euro against the US dollar shows a clear bullish pattern, and the current price is 1.1747 firmly above all key moving averages: the 22-period SMA is 1.1661, the 50-period SMA is 1.1630, the 100-period SMA is 1.1624, and the 200-period SMA is 1.1664, reflecting the upward trend. The MACD indicator (parameters 26, 12, 9) further confirms: DIFF line 0.0023, DEA line 0.0019, and histogram 0.0007. Positive operation implies a moderate expansion of kinetic energy, no divergence signal appears, and the decline of 0.13% intraday is a normal adjustment rather than a trend reversal. The trading volume has not increased significantly, but the price has maintained the 1.17 integer mark to strengthen bullish control.

The euro has formed an ascending channel in the 4-hour frame since rebounding last month's low, with the upper rail testing around 1.18 and the lower rail supporting the 1.16 area. The moving average system is arranged in a bullish manner, and the short-term SMA crosses the long-term line, reflecting the market's recognition of the resilience of the euro. The expansion of the MACD positive column is speculated that RSI has not entered the overbought zone and the price has upward probe space. Technical users xmaccount.commented: "Under the 4-hour moving average, euro bulls dominate, and political noise may become a chance to wash the market." But we need to be wary of external variables, such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the fluctuations in risk preference caused by US tariff remarks. The euro zone currency as a safe-haven asset is weaker than the US dollar.

Future trend outlook

The euro may maintain a volatile upward trend against the US dollar in the short term, with the range of 1.17-1.18 being the key game zone. If the new French Prime Minister takes office quickly and promotes budget consensus, fundamentals will strengthen technical bulls and prices are expected to challenge the 1.18 resistance. On the contrary, if the parliamentary deadlock is extended, xmaccount.combined with the MACD kinetic energy, the pullback to the 1.1660 moving average group will be a natural reaction. However, the bull arrangement and positive indicators of the 4-hour chart show that the trend is on the rise, and traders can pay attention to the disturbances of political progress to the channel. In the long run, the implementation of fiscal discipline in the euro zone is the key, and Macron's camp's mediation efforts may inject stable expectations into the exchange rate to avoid deep adjustments. The current technical background shows that the euro still has room for action.

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