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Market decline intensifies, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 7
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The market decline intensifies, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on April 7th". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Global Market Review
1. European and American market conditions
The three major stock index futures fell, with Dow futures mainly blue-chip stocks falling 2.40%; S&P 500 futures falling 2.31%; and Nasdaq 100 futures mainly technology stocks falling 2.48%. European stocks fell sharply, with the German DAX index falling 4.60%; the French CAC40 index falling 4.47%; and the UK FTSE 100 index falling 3.96%.
2. Market news interpretation
The market decline intensifies the U.S. credit risk panic indicators continue to rise
Indicators that measure credit risk in U.S. investment-grade securities have recorded the largest increase since the epidemic in the past three trading days, and concerns over the impact of tariffs on the economy have spread to debt investors. The MarkitCDX North American Investment Grade Bond Index, which rose as fears heated up, rose 4 basis points at one point to 76.2 basis points, and then gave up some of the gains.
Citigroup lowered its Brent crude oil 0-3-month forecast to $60/barrel
On Monday, Citigroup Research lowered its Brent crude oil 0-3-month price estimate to $60/barrel, and lowered its 0-3-month price estimate for copper and aluminum to $8,000/ton and $2,200/ton respectively. The bank said in its report that the actual impact of tariffs should be a double negative, and that pre-buying and hoarding of goods will be xmaccount.completely reversed after the xmaccount.commodity market tightened in the past few months. "In our opinion, this week's outgoing due to a small trade deal that may delay the implementation of April 9 tariffs," Citi analysts said in a note.Any rebound that appears will provide an opportunity to sell at high prices. "And added that "U.S. natural gas and gold should perform better than the market in the near future."
JPM CEO urged to resolve tariff uncertainty worry about the fall of the long-term economic alliance of the United States
JPM CEO Dimon urged to resolve the uncertainty caused by US President Trump's tariffs as soon as possible, warning that the long-term economic alliance of the United States may be "disastrously" broken. "The sooner this problem is solved, the better, because some negative effects will accumulate over time and are difficult to reverse," Dimon wrote in an annual shareholder letter. Recently, "as input costs rise and demand for domestic products increases, we may see results that push up inflation, not only in imported goods, but also in domestic prices 。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。 Enter the market under the Western price cap.
The UK Statistics Office is required to urgently improve data quality
① The UK Statistics Office (ONS) must take urgent measures in the next four weeks to reverse the decline in the quality of key economic data, including unemployment data. ②ONS has been criticized by the Bank of England and many economists for failing to reverse the decline in the number of participants in labor market surveys after the pandemic. ③ The UK Statistics Office (OSR) initiated a review of the ONS issue in July 2024, and the government announced another independent investigation last week. ④ OSR said that ONS needs to urgently modernize its data collection methods and work practices to restore confidence. ⑤ Regulatory agencies require ONS to be in the fourth A xmaccount.comprehensive improvement plan was released within the week and clear within three months how to prioritize funding economic statistics and check its quality more regularly.
U.S. stocks fell, tariffs hit the market
①U.S. stocks fell before April 7, expanding their decline for the third consecutive day as Trump announced a benchmark tariff of 10% on all imported goods last week and imposed higher tariffs on dozens of countries. ②Morgan Stanley fell 5.3%, Citigroup fell 5.1%, and Goldman Sachs fell 4.7%. Bank of America fell 3.8%, JPMorgan Chase fell 3.7%, and Wells Fargo fell 3.6%. ③Uncertainty caused by tariffs has suppressed transactions and capital market activity, and consumer confidence may fallSuppress consumption and loan demand, investment banks are expected to be hit. ④ Since Trump announced the increase in tariffs, the KBW Bank Index has fallen 15.8%.
The UK plans to close hundreds of public institutions to streamline the government
① The UK government said it could close hundreds of semi-autonomous non-governmental public institutions (quangos) to cut costs, increase productivity and respond to the "new era of global instability." ② These institutions are funded by taxpayers but are not directly controlled by the Minister, including the Health and Safety Executive Board, the Railway Network xmaccount.company and the Immigration Advisory xmaccount.committee. ③ The government statement said that all public institutions will be reviewed and if their existence cannot be rationalized, they will be closed, merged or functions will be returned to government departments. ④The UK is currently in a state of fiscal austerity, and Finance Minister Rachel Reeves needs to meet fiscal rules while responding to the negative impact of Trump's tariffs on economic growth.
Top investment banks have raised their U.S. recession forecasts and interest rate expectations again
① Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession from 35% to 45%, a second increase in a week, aroused concerns due to the escalation of the trade war. ②JP Morgan expects the probability of a recession in the United States and globally to be 60%, and is worried that tariffs will trigger inflation and retaliatory measures. ③ Goldman Sachs lowered its U.S. economic growth forecast for 2025 from 1.5% to 1.3%, still higher than Wells Fargo's 1% estimate. ④ Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three consecutive times in June, at 25 basis points each time. ⑤JP Morgan expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates every time in the remaining five meetings in 2025, and the interest rate will drop to 3% after another rate cut in January.
Libya launches a new round of oil tender
① Libya's oil minister announced that the country will launch a new round of oil tenders to provide investors with more attractive terms. ②The tender will involve several key areas in Libya, including Silt, Murzuk and Gahttps://xmaccount.comDamez Basin, as well as maritime blocks along the Mediterranean coast.
Japan considers formulating a supplementary budget to deal with tariffs and inflation
① The Japanese government and the ruling coalition are considering formulating a supplementary budget to deal with US tariffs and long-term inflation. ② Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may instruct officials to formulate budgets this month and strive to pass them during this parliamentary session. ③The Japanese government plans to take measures to stimulate domestic demand, especially after the United States introduces automobile tariffs. ④The government may strengthen financial support for xmaccount.companies that do not lay off employees and restore electricity and gas subsidies. ⑤ Japan may also supplement its reserve funds.
Indones seek to establish fair and reciprocal relationship with the United States
① Indonesian President Joko Widodo said that Indonesia hopes to establish fair and reciprocal relationship with the United States and will resolve the 32% tariff imposed by the United States through diplomatic means.. ② Indonesia plans to increase imports from the United States, such as cotton, wheat, oil and gas, in exchange for tariff reductions. ③The United States is Indonesia's third largest export destination. In 2024, Indonesia's exports to the United States reached US$26.3 billion, and its trade surplus was US$16.8 billion. ④ Indonesia's economy has faced challenges in recent times, with the stock market plummeting and the currency depreciating to its lowest level since the 1998 financial crisis. ⑤ Indonesia's central bank said it will actively interfere in the foreign exchange market after the April 8 holiday ends to stabilize the exchange rate.
3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market
Euro/USD: As of 20:18 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.0955, a drop of 0.03%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the euro-dollar price continued to work hard to find the bottom of the uptrend, based on this to gain a positive recovery momentum. Despite recent declines, it is still above the key support level of 1.0945, which forms a positive turning point that can lead to upward movement, especially a positive divergence after the relative intensity index (RSI) reaches an oversold level xmaccount.compared to price movement. Positive signals have begun to appear.
GBP/USD: As of 20:18 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.2813, a drop of 0.51%. Before New York, GBPUSD prices moved upwards on the last trading day, supported by key support level 1,2865, which helped the price gain a bullish momentum, especially after (RSI) sending a positive overlap signal.
Spot gold: As of 20:18 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3028.59, a drop of 0.28%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, gold prices fell on the last trading day because resistance stabilized at $3.050. Affected by several negative pressures and short-term bear correction waves, the price fell after some obvious oversold trends in the successful overselling (RSI), strengthening the negative scenario.
Spot silver: As of 20:18 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 30.015, an increase of 1.62%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, silver prices stabilized at the intraday level, below the key resistance of $30.85, strengthening the bearish scenario, especially (RSI) has reached oversold levels.
Crude Oil Market: As of 20:18 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell and is now at 60.240, a drop of 2.81%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, crude oil prices confirmed their losses during the day, breaking the current support of $60.70, and staying below as a signal to resume its decline, especially as the return of negative signals after the price successfully escaped from the oversold state (RSI).
4. Institutional View
RICCA: Tariff Shock continues to drag down European bank stocks
European bank stocks were hit harder on Monday, as markets opened for fear of the chain reaction of US tariffs on the global economy, and the sharp drop last week expanded. The European Stoke 600 index fell 5.4%, continuing the decline last Thursday and Friday. Since the beginning of this month, the index has fallen by 17%, almost erasing all the gains this year. RBC Capital Markets said in a research note: "The chain effect of tariffs may put significant pressure on banking profits." "Analysts wrote that as the economic outlook changes drastically, the fate of European banking has changed in a short period of time. The cross-industry European Stoke 600 index fell 6.1%, down 8.1% this year.
UBS: U.S. economic growth is expected to be below 1% this year, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points
UBS released a report saying that if Trump does not take positive measures to reduce tariffs in the next three to six months, it is likely to enter a downward scenario, including a significant recession in the U.S. economy and stock market declines. If extreme pressure strategies extend to diplomacy (such as the Iranian nuclear issue and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict) and fiscal policy (i.e., extended tax cuts), uncertainty may be further intensified. The bank estimates that reciprocal tariffs have raised the actual US tariff rate from 9% to about 25%, and is expected to be in effect in the short term. The international tariff rate will be higher, and the "reciprocal" method of US tariffs means that the retaliation of trading partners may encounter higher tariffs in the United States. It does not include tariffs that may face future Article 232 surveys, which may lead to the cancellation of tariff exemptions. The bank expects the U.S. economic growth this year, including the recession this year, which is lower than 1%. In terms of inflation, tariffs are expected to push U.S. inflation by about 2 percentage points by the end of the year, assuming only part of the cost is transmitted to the final consumers. Although higher inflation, a sharp slowdown in economic growth and possible weakness in the labor market will prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points this year.
The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: The market decline intensifies, and the analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on April 7" is by XMThe foreign exchange editor carefully xmaccount.compiled and edited it, hoping it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
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