Oil prices hit four-year lows, tariffs trigger fears of global recession, gold prices fall, investors turn to the dollar as safe haven

Basic news

On Tuesday (April 8, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 2985.38, and gold prices fell nearly 2% on Monday. After the US's full imposition of tariffs triggered concerns about a global recession, investors turned to the US dollar as a safe haven. However, given the severe economic situation, analysts are still bullish on gold; U.S. crude oil rose more than 1%, trading around $61.39 per barrel, and oil prices fell 2% on Monday, hitting a new low in nearly four years on fears that the latest trade tariffs from U.S. President Trump could put the global economy in recession and reduce global energy demand.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.91% to 37,965.60 on Monday; the S&P 500 fell 0.23% to 5,062.25; and the Nasdaq rose 0.10% to 15,603.26.

Stock Markets

U.S. Stocks S&P 500 and the Dow experienced a roller coaster move on Monday, closing down as U.S. President Trump insisted on his tariff stance and investors were worried about a slowdown and rising inflation.

Wall Street stocks have been hit hard since Trump announced a full tariff on all goods imported into the U.S. late last Wednesday and higher tariffs on some major trading partners. Monday's trading volume broke the U.S. record for the second straight trading day. In the early trading, all three major U.S. stock indexes hit their lowest levels in more than a year. In the morning, the three major stock indexes briefly rebounded sharply due to a report on tariffs, but fell again after the report was denied.

In addition, the CBOE volatility index Wall StreetThe Fear Index broke through 60 points in the session, setting a record high since August 2024. After narrowing the gains, the index still closed at 46.98 points, setting its highest closing point in five years. "The fundamental problem with the market is that the government's attitude toward trade imbalances is to try to adopt a worse treatment than the disease itself. It's clear that investors tend to pause or look at the problem from a different perspective. It's pretty clear that among the many Trump supporters in the investment and business world, no one seems to stand up to support the government's tariff practices."

In the two days after Trump announced the tariffs last week, the S&P 500 index plummeted 10.5%, with a market value loss of about $5 trillion, the biggest two-day drop since March 2020. Last Friday, the blue chip Dow Jones confirmed that it was in a correction, down more than 10% from its record closing high in December, and the Nasdaq confirmed a bear market, down 20% or more from its record closing high.

Earlier on Monday, the S&P 500 index was 20% lower than its record closing high. The index rebounded briefly more than 3% after a report that Trump was considering suspending tariffs for 90 days. White House officials quickly denied the report, causing the market to recover its decline.

Meckler said the sharp fluctuations in the market on Monday made investors "a little worried that if the facts start to change, you might see the market rise very quickly."

Several Fed officials will speak this week and will also release a range of economic indicators, including consumer prices, and investors will closely monitor any signs of the recession.

Gold market

Gold prices fell more than 2% on Monday, and investors turned to the dollar as a safe haven after the US full imposition of tariffs triggered concerns about a global recession. However, analysts remain bullish on gold given the severe economic situation.

Spot gold fell 2.4% to $2963.19 per ounce, hitting a nearly four-week low of $2955.89 at the beginning of the session. U.S. gold futures closed down 2% to $2973.60. Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Tradu.com, said investors turned to cash and other safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, which led to a decline in gold, bringing the risk of a deeper adjustment.

The dollar rose against other currencies, breaking from the six-month low hit last week. The strengthening of the dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Bart Melek, head of xmaccount.commodity strategy at TD Securities, said we are under a lot of pressure in the gold market due to liquidity concerns and margin recoup by speculators.

At present, the futures market pointed out that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by about 120 basis points by December, and the market believes that the probability of the United States cutting interest rates in May is about 37%. Rate cuts will increase the attractiveness of non-interested gold.

Spot silver rose 0.5% to $29.71 an ounce, rebounding from a nearly seven-month low set earlier in the day.

Spot platinum fell 1% to $907.09; palladium fell 0.9% to $903.19. Oil market【XM Group】

Oil prices fell 2% on Monday, hitting a new low in nearly four years on fears that President Trump's latest trade tariffs could plunge the global economy into recession and reduce global demand for energy.

Brent crude oil futures fell 2.1% to close at $64.21 per barrel; U.S. crude oil futures fell 2.1% to close at $60.70. This has caused the prices of crude oil contracts of both indicators to hit their lowest closing prices since April 2021. Oil prices fell about 11% last week.

Intraday prices fluctuated sharply, falling more than $3 per barrel overnight and rising more than $1 on Monday morning after news reports that Trump was considering a 90-day suspension of tariffs. White House officials quickly denied the report, bringing crude oil prices back to a decline.

A document seen by Reuters shows that the EU Executive xmaccount.committee proposed on Monday to impose a 25% counter-tariff on a range of U.S. goods in response to President Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs.

Goldman Sachs predicts a 45% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months and lowers its oil price forecast. Citigroup and Morgan Stanley also lowered their forecasts for Brent. JPMorgan said it believes the U.S. and global recession is 60%.

Saudi Arabia announced a sharp cut in crude oil prices for Asian buyers on Sunday, reducing crude oil prices in May to its lowest level in four months.

Foreign Market

The global trade war triggered by US President Trump's xmaccount.comprehensive tariffs escalated further on Monday. Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Asian powers, and the EU proposed to impose counter-tariffs.

The global financial markets fell for the third consecutive day, with investors worried that high trade barriers around the world's largest consumer market could lead to a recession. The US S&P 500 index closed lower, with an intraday trend like a roller coaster, reaching its lowest level in more than a year.

Trump said these tariffs—to impose at least 10% tariffs on all goods imported into the United States, up to 50%—will help the United States revive its shrinking industrial base in decades of trade liberalization.

He told reporters at the White House, "This is the only opportunity for our country to re-align. Because no other president is willing to do what I am doing, or even go through the process. Now, I don't mind going through this process because I can see the ultimate good situation."

According to a document seen by Reuters, the EU Executive xmaccount.committee proposed to impose 25% on a range of U.S. goodscounter tariffs, including soy, nuts and sausages, but other potential xmaccount.commodities such as bourbon are not on the list.

Officers said they were ready to negotiate with the Trump administration to reach a "zero-to-zero" agreement. EU Trade Executive xmaccount.committee Member Sevjovich said at a press conference: "Sooner or later, we will sit at the negotiating table with the United States and find a xmaccount.compromise that both sides can accept." Trump said his administration will hold trade negotiations with Japan, one of the United States' closest allies in Asia. Dozens of other countries have also been in contact with the United States in hopes of blocking up to 50% tariffs that came into effect on Wednesday, government officials said.

Repeated news on tariffs has further exacerbated the turmoil in the global financial market, which has been falling since Trump announced reciprocal tariffs.

The U.S. stock market fluctuated sharply, after reports that Trump was considering postponing the tariffs to take effect for 90 days, then resumed the decline after the White House refuted the report as "fake news."

Stock markets in Asia and Europe also plummeted, with investors worried that what Trump calls "good medicine" tariffs could lead to higher prices, weak demand, and potentially cause a global recession. Goldman Sachs believes the possibility of a recession in the United States has increased to 45%.

Trump administration officials said the president is fulfilling his xmaccount.commitment to reverse the trade liberalization he believes has weakened the U.S. economy for decades. But they also said Trump is willing to consult with dozens of countries that have expressed their willingness to talk.

National Economic xmaccount.commission Director Hasset Fox News said, "He is redoubled his efforts to do what he thinks works, and he will continue to do it, but he will also listen to our trading partners and I believe he will listen if they xmaccount.come up with us with a good deal that is really good for American manufacturing and American farmers."

JP Morgan CEO Dimon said tariffs could have lasting negative effects, and fund manager Bill Ackman said the tariffs could lead to a "nuclear winter."

Investors and political leaders have been working to determine whether Trump’s tariffs are part of a permanent new regime or a negotiating strategy to get concessions from other countries.

Investors are now betting that an increase in recession risk could lead to a Fed rate cut as early as May. Trump again called on the Fed to cut interest rates on Monday, but so far, Chairman Powell said he is not in a hurry.

International News

Mexican President: He will strive to promote negotiations with the US tariffs but not rule out reciprocal retaliation

On April 7, local time, Mexican President Simbaum said that the possibility of adopting reciprocal retaliatory tariffs on 25% of the US steel and aluminum products is not ruled out, but he promised to do all diplomatic efforts to seek an agreement to avoid pushing up domestic prices. Ximbum said Ebrad will travel to Washington this week to continue consultations with the U.S. government. Mexico will avoid retaliatory tariffs as much as possible, continue dialogue before taking other measures to protect MexicanColombian industry and enterprise.

Trump said he would not suspend the implementation of tariffs but was open to negotiations

U.S. President Donald Trump said that although trading partners who were eager to avoid taxation have sent olive branches, he did not consider suspending the full implementation of reciprocal tariffs, but he also sent an open signal to some negotiations. “We are not thinking about this,” Trump said Monday when meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Oval Office. Trump said tariffs are a "very important" xmaccount.component of his economic agenda and will generally be retained. He also said that the door to a fair and good agreement with every country is open." Trump also said: "Tariffs can be permanent, but they can also be negotiated because we also need something other than tariffs."

Trump talks about dissatisfaction with Russia again accusing Russia of continuing to attack Ukraine

On April 7 local time, US President Trump said he was "dissatisfied" that Russia continued to attack Ukraine because the United States is trying to promote an end to the conflict between the two countries. Trump said U.S. officials are meeting with Russia and Ukraine, saying they are "close", but he did not say whether this means a close to a ceasefire.

Trump puts pressure on the EU again: energy must be purchased from the United States

On April 7 local time, US President Trump said at the White House that selling energy to the EU will be a key focus as his administration seeks to eliminate the trade deficit with the EU. Trump told reporters at the White House that the EU is terrible to us, accusing European countries of not buying enough American goods. "They have to buy energy from us because they need it, and they have to buy it from us. They can buy it and we can cut $350 billion in a week."

U.S. consumer credit accident fell by surprise

U.S. consumer credit accident in February showed its first decline in three months, reflecting a sharp drop in credit card balances, as well as a decrease in automobiles and other non-revolving loans. The Fed released data on Monday showed that total consumer credit fell by about $810 million in February after a revised increase of $8.9 billion in January. Economists estimate the median increase of $15 billion.

The United States plans to more than double the current relevant tax imposed on Canadian timber

On April 7 local time, it was learned that the United States plans to more than double the existing anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on Canadian cork timber imports. The U.S. Department of xmaccount.commerce plans to increase tariffs from 14.4% to 34.45% as part of the annual review process, according to documents published and unpublished in the Federal Register.

Canadian Prime Minister Carney: The possibility of a US recession has risen sharply, which will have a significant negative impact on Canada

Canadian Prime Minister Carney said on Monday that the possibility of a US recession has risen sharply due to US President Trump's tariffs, which will produce Canadian economyThere are major negative effects. Carney also said at a television press conference that he spoke with Bank of Canada President McClum and Canadian Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry Shang Pengfei on Monday about market turmoil and expressed confidence in the two officials.

BlackRock CEO: US stock market decline may expand by 20%, and the economy may fall into recession

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said on Monday that the US decline may expand by 20% due to huge tariffs imposed by the United States, pointing out that the economy may have fallen into recession. Fink said he was worried that inflationary pressures would be far beyond market expectations. But the leader of the world's largest asset manager said that in the long run, the recent market decline "is more a buying opportunity than a selling opportunity" and does not pose a systemic risk.

Amid the turmoil of global markets, many black swan hedge funds "dormant" for several years have soared

Black swan investors have spent years waiting for the market to collapse, and ETFs tracking defense strategies have collapsed during the stock market bull market. Now, the financial asset turmoil caused by Trump’s tariffs is spurring this form of portfolio insurance to record highs. Two exchange-traded funds that benefit from volatility breakthroughs are seeing their strongest performance ever. Among the largest black swan funds that retail investors can buy in the United States, CambriaTailRiskETF (TAIL) soared about 20% in three trading days since its closing last Wednesday, setting a record high since its debut in 2017.

Domestic News

Central Huijin's increase in holdings of A-shares economic resilience supports capital confidence

On April 7, during the A-share trading period, Central Huijin xmaccount.company issued an announcement stating that it has increased its holdings in trading open-end index funds (ETFs) again and will continue to increase its holdings in the future. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Financial Cheng, said that as the global economic and trade environment variables suddenly increased and the global financial market fluctuated violently, the "national team" took action in a timely manner, sending a strong policy signal, which can effectively guide market expectations, prevent market overshoots, and alleviate external shocks. It is worth noting that this announcement emphasizes "re-increasing holdings." After reviewing public information, it was found that in recent years, whenever the A-share market fluctuates violently, Central Huijin has purchased trading open-end index funds to maintain market stability.

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