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Trump may have a "big deal" with Putin, but Europe faces a strategic nightmare
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Official Website]: Trump may have a "big deal" with Putin, but Europe has a strategic nightmare." Hope this helps you! Original content is as follows:
Whatever the outcome of Trump's latest push to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe is worried that sooner or later a deal will be reached that does not go as European leaders hope, putting the continent's security at greater risk.
Europe may even have to accept a growing economic partnership between Washington, the traditional protector of its NATO alliance, and Moscow, which most European governments, as well as NATO itself, say is the biggest threat to European security.
Although Ukraine and some European parties have managed to resist parts of the US 28-point ceasefire plan that is considered seriously pro-Russian, any agreement may still bring significant risks to the European continent.
However, Europe's ability to influence the agreement is limited, not least because it lacks the hard power to impose its terms. No European representatives attended the talks between U.S. and Ukrainian officials held in Florida last weekend, and Europe could only watch from a distance when U.S. envoy Steve Vitkov visited Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday (December 2).
Luc van Midelaar, founding director of the Brussels Institute of Geopolitics think tank, said: "I have a feeling that people are gradually realizing that sooner or later a dishonorable deal will be reached. Trump obviously wants a deal. What makes Europeans very uneasy is that he wants to use the big powers to Logical agreement: We are the United States, they are Russia, we are both great powers.
Rubio seeks to reassure European allies
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that European countries will participate in discussions about the role of NATO and the European Union in any peace settlement.
But European diplomats were not xmaccount.comforted by such assurances. they pointedNearly every aspect of the deal will affect Europe, from potential territorial concessions to U.S.-Russian economic cooperation.
The latest U.S. moves have also reignited concerns in Europe about NATO's xmaccount.commitments, which cover everything from the nuclear umbrella and a host of weapons systems to the garrison of tens of thousands of troops. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said last week that Europeans no longer know "which alliances we can trust in the future and which alliances will last."
Although Trump has previously criticized NATO, in June he confirmed his xmaccount.commitment to the alliance and its Article 5 (collective defense) in exchange for European countries' guarantees to increase defense spending. However, Rubio's planned absence from this week's NATO foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels may only heighten unease in Europe amid concerns that members of NATO's eastern flank could become Moscow's next target.
German Foreign Minister John Wadpoel said last week: "Our intelligence services clearly informed that Russia at least retains the option of war with NATO, no later than 2029."
Europe is worried that concessions will embolden Putin's arrogance
European officials said they have seen no signs that Putin wants to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. But if it is serious about a ceasefire, they worry that any agreement that does not respect Ukraine's territorial integrity could embolden Russia to cross the border again.
In addition, Trump and other U.S. officials have made clear that they see huge opportunities for xmaccount.commercial cooperation with Moscow once the conflict ends. European officials worry that ending Russia's economic isolation from the West would provide Moscow with billions of dollars to rebuild its military.
European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaya Karas told reporters on Monday: "If the Russian army is large and if its military budget maintains its current level, they will use force again."
Europe will have difficulty exerting influence
Although Europe has provided approximately 180 billion euros (approximately US$209.23 billion) in aid to Ukraine since the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, European leaders have still struggled to exert a strong influence on any peaceful solution.
The EU holds an important potential bargaining chip - Russian assets frozen in the EU. But EU leaders have so far failed to agree on a plan to use the assets to provide Ukraine with a 140 billion euro loan that would have helped Kyiv remain resilient over the next two years.
NATO will strengthen its eastern flank defenses after Poland shot down a drone. In order to demonstrate its hard power, the "Coalition of the Willing" led by France and the United Kingdom promised to deploy "guarantee troops" as part of security guarantees for Ukraine, but Russia has clearly rejected the deployment of such troops.
Even if this force is deployed, its scale will be very limited, mainly used to enhance Kyiv’s military strength rather than independently defend Ukraine, and it must be supported by the United States to be effective. Claudia Meijer, Vice President of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, pointed out: “Europe is undergoing a period of rapid development in recent years.Failure to build military capabilities xmaccount.comes at a cost. Europe cannot participate in negotiations because, in Trump’s words, they have no leverage. " She mentioned the contemptuous statement made by the US President towards Ukrainian President Zelensky in February this year.
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