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US dollar index weakens, waiting for non-agricultural market situation
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM official website]: The US dollar index is weak, waiting for the non-agricultural market situation". Hope this helps you! Original content is as follows:
The U.S. dollar index fluctuated slightly in Asian trading on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar weakened on Tuesday as data showed U.S. economic growth slowed, while the yen rose for a second consecutive session after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won the election. The market this week will focus on the upcoming employment and inflation data in the United States to assess the economic situation.
Analysis of major currency trends
U.S. dollar: As of press time, the U.S. dollar index is hovering around 96.84. Technically, the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt are near key short-term positions, and direction decisions are subject to fundamental catalysts. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF line is slightly lower than the DEA line, but both are close to the zero axis, indicating that the short-term momentum is weak and the market is in a critical state of long-short equilibrium. The key support and resistance ranges can be defined as: the primary support below is at 96.85 (the lower track of the Bollinger Bands and the recent consolidation low area). If it falls below, it may open room for adjustment to the 96.70 line; the primary resistance above is the 96.91-96.95 area (the upper track of the Bollinger Bands and near Monday's high point). An effective breakthrough can confirm the end of the short-term correction and is expected to test the 97.10 level. During the day, we need to pay close attention to the price's test of the edge of the Bollinger Bands and whether MACD can form a golden cross near the zero axis. This will be a signal of short-term momentum conversion.



1. Trump said he would take tough action if negotiations with Iran fail
On February 10, local time, U.S. President Trump said in a telephone interview with Israel’s Channel 12 TV station that if the United States and Iran cannot reach an agreement in the near future, he is prepared to “take military action like he did during the conflict between Israel and Iran in June last year.” Trump said Iran "very much wants to make a deal" but if negotiations fail, the United States will take "very strong action." Trump said the U.S. military deployment in the region provides important leverage to pressure Iran and confirmed that it is considering sending another aircraft carrier and its strike group to the Middle East. Trump confirmed that his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on February 11, local time, will mainly discuss the Iranian issue. According to his expectation, the second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran will be held next week. He stressed that any agreement with Iran must "not only include the nuclear issue, but also deal with Iran's ballistic missile issue."
2. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 78.4%
According to CME’s “Fed Watch”: the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates 25 times by MarchThe probability of a base point change is 21.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 78.4%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April is 36.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 57.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 5.8%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by June is 48.6%.
3. The National Governors Association cancels the organization’s annual meeting with the president
According to US media reports on the 10th, the National Governors Association decided to cancel this year’s official meeting with President Trump at the White House because the White House plans to only invite Republican governors to attend the annual event. According to reports, Kevin Stitt, chairman of the National Governors Association and Republican Governor of Oklahoma, said in a letter to other governors on the 9th that the White House plans to limit invitations to the annual business meeting scheduled for February 20 to Republican governors. Because the association's mission is to represent all governors and governors of U.S. territories, the association is no longer an organizer of the conference and no longer includes it on the official schedule. White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt responded to this at a press conference on the 10th, saying that Trump "can invite anyone he wants to the White House for dinner or events" and "he welcomes everyone invited, and if they don't want to xmaccount.come, it's their loss."
4. The European Parliament is one step closer to approving a U.S.-EU trade deal after adding new clauses
The European Parliament is one step closer to approving a trade deal with the United States as senior lawmakers agreed to make adjustments before a vote planned for this month. Members of the European Parliament's trade xmaccount.committee confirmed on Tuesday that they would hold a vote on February 24. They also agreed to add a sunset clause to the deal - which is set to expire in March 2028 unless extended - and give the United States six months to roll back the 50% tariffs currently on products using steel and aluminum. If the United States fails to reduce tariffs on products using the above metals to 15%, the EU will consider reinstating tariffs on U.S. industrial imports and some agricultural and food products. People familiar with the matter said large political groups such as the centre-right European People's Party and the Social Democratic Progressive Alliance supported the amendments. The plenary session of the European Parliament still needs to vote on the amendments, and relevant changes still need to be agreed in negotiations with member states.
5. The Vice Chairman of the Reserve Bank of Australia will publicly state that the market is waiting for the policy direction
The Vice Chairman of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Andrew Hauser, will attend a business meeting and be interviewed later today. Hauser often provides valuable insights into the market, and his xmaccount.comments xmaccount.come at a crucial time as the Reserve Bank of Australia has xmaccount.come under fire for raising interest rates shortly after cutting them at the end of last year. Hauser's xmaccount.comments may reveal how tough the RBA's stance is on curbing stubborn inflation. Traders now widely expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in May.
Institutional perspective
1. Institutions: There are few alternatives to U.S. debt and foreign investors have strong intention to hold debt.Ting
Foreign buyers of U.S. Treasuries have accounted for a growing share of note and bond auctions in recent months, easing concerns about a loss of safe-haven status and a loss of buyers due to huge deficits, interest rate strategists at TD Securities said. U.S. Treasury Department data showed that foreign and international accounts were allocated about 19% of the auction share in January, the highest in the past three years. Over the past five years, this share has been as high as nearly 25% in early 2022, before falling below 10% in November 2024. The United States sells seven types of conventional Treasury bonds with maturities ranging from 2 to 30 years, as well as three types of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). TD Securities strategists Gennadiy Goldberg, Jan Nevruzi and Molly Brooks said in a report that the more data we get, the more we suspect that this 'sell-off' trade in the United States is more of a rumor than a reality. The lack of alternatives may be forcing investors to put aside their concerns.
2. xmaccount.commerzbank: The strength of the euro is driven by external factors and the European Central Bank has limited room to respond
Michael Pfister of xmaccount.commerzbank said in a report that the European Central Bank may have difficulty responding to the recent strength of the euro because the factors driving this trend are not within its control. The euro has gained more than 15% on a trade-weighted basis since hitting lows in August 2022, but much of this reflects weakness in other currencies. The euro tends to benefit when other currencies face political crises, but this is bad for euro zone exports. ECB officials also emphasized that the appreciation of the euro will mainly occur in the first quarter of 2025, when Germany announced its fiscal plan and the dollar fell significantly. Pfister said the ECB was likely to react more strongly only if the euro appreciated more significantly.
3. Institutions: The vacancy of the Governor of the Bank of France has become a key personnel layout for the Eurozone and France in the election year
Institutional analysis pointed out that Villeroy resigned as Governor of the Bank of France, leaving a key position vacancy for the country and the Eurozone during this sensitive period. Whoever President Macron chooses to take over will be given one of the most influential seats on the ECB's governing council, join the ranks of his G7 peers and assume the role of regulator of the country's economy - ahead of a tense election year. Although euro zone interest rates are expected to remain unchanged until next year, monetary policy is likely to be relatively stable initially. But France's own instability is likely to make up for that calm: a split in the National Assembly puts the government at risk of collapse and hampers efforts to tackle a massive budget deficit. The threshold for parliament to block Macron's nominees is high, making a veto possible but unlikely. The fragmentation of French politics points instead to a consensus-building technocrat providing broad continuity on key currency and regulatory issues.
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