Hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East faded to boost oil prices. Trump postponed the attack on Iranian power plants for another 10 days. Gold prices returned to below 4,400.

Basic news

In early trading in the Asian market on Friday (March 27, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$4,405 per ounce. The price of gold fell nearly 3% on Thursday as the US dollar Strengthening, market participants reassessed the possibility of a ceasefire in the Middle East, and Trump postponed the attack on Iranian power plants for another 10 days; U.S. crude oil traded around $93.40 per barrel, and oil prices closed higher on Thursday as market hopes for a quick end to the war in the Middle East gradually faded.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks fell sharply on Thursday, with the Nasdaq index plunging more than 2% and confirming that it has entered a correction range. The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell more than 1%. Investors have sought safety amid concerns about an escalation of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

The sharp surge in oil prices has intensified the market's concerns about inflation, causing the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to record their largest one-day losses since January 20. U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran must reach a deal or face continued attacks and said taking control of Iranian oil was an option, while a senior Iranian official called the U.S. ceasefire offer "unilateral and unfair" but diplomatic efforts were not over yet.

The market is swinging in the "fog of war", Doug Beath, global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, pointed out that conflicting signals and uncertainty surrounding the war are dominating market trends.

After the close, Trump said that at the request of the Iranian government, he would suspend attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 10 days until April 6, and said that the negotiations were progressing "very smoothly." Affected by this news, the decline of stock index futures narrowed slightly.

In terms of sectors, the energy sector was the best performer, rising 1.6%, while the xmaccount.communications services sector fell 3.5% as Meta and Google lost a lawsuit in social media harming children, and the technology sector fell 2.7%, with chip stocks being the main drag. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.8%. In terms of economic data, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States rose slightly last week, indicating a stable labor market and providing space for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged while monitoring the impact of the war.

Gold Market

Gold prices fell back on Thursday as a stronger dollar and higher oil prices prompted market participants to reassess the possibility of a ceasefire in the Middle East.

Spot gold fell 2.7% to US$4,384.38 per ounce, and US gold futures closed down 3.9% to US$4,376.3. A slight rise in the dollar made dollar-denominated gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies, while higher oil prices added to inflationary pressures and reinforced expectations that high interest rates will remain in place.

KitcoMetals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said that if the conflict continues, gold prices may fall below US$4,000, while hopes for a ceasefire and interest rate cuts may push gold prices back to around US$5,000.

A senior Iranian official called the U.S. proposal to end the nearly four-week conflict "one-sided and unfair," but U.S. President Trump said Iran would allow 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture in the negotiations. Since the outbreak of the war between the United States and Israel on February 28, gold prices have fallen by 17%.

In addition, spot silver fell 5% to $67.71, platinum fell 4.2%, and palladium fell 5%. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week, indicating a stable labor market and providing room for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady while focusing on inflation risks.

Oil market

Oil prices closed higher on Thursday, with Brent crude oil futures rising 5.7% to US$108.01 per barrel, and U.S. crude oil futures rising 4.6% to US$94.48 per barrel, as the market's hopes for a quick end to the war in the Middle East gradually faded.

The U.S. envoy confirmed that it had sent Iran a "15-point action list" as the basis for negotiations, but Iran's foreign minister said it was still reviewing the plan and had not yet entered into dialogue on ending the war. A senior Iranian official called the plan "one-sided and unfair," while U.S. President Trump said that Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture. The chief economist of Matador Economics pointed out that the market is confused and frustrated by the authenticity of the news from the United States and Iran, and investors are turning to safer assets.

At the same time, the Pentagon plans to send thousands more airborne troops to the Gulf region, and Yemen's Houthi armed forces aligned with Iran are preparing to attack key Red Sea shipping lanes again to show solidarity. In addition, at least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is suspended, and one of its largest domestic refineries has suspended processing due to Ukrainian drone attacks, further exacerbating supply tensions. But alsoThere were signs that shipping had partially resumed. A Thai oil tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz after diplomatic coordination. Iran also made concessions to EU countries for the first time, expressing its willingness to accept any request from Spain regarding the strait.

Foreign Market

The U.S. dollar rose against major currencies on Thursday, with the U.S. dollar index rising 0.35% to 99.97. Affected by the huge differences in the US-Iran peace agreement and the thwarted hope of de-escalating the situation in the Middle East.

An Iranian official said that the U.S. plan failed to meet the minimum requirements and only served U.S. and Israeli interests, but diplomatic efforts have not yet ended, while U.S. President Trump expressed uncertainty about whether he is willing to reach an agreement to end the war.

Corpay's chief market strategist pointed out that there are huge differences between the two sides on the terms of the negotiations. Iran has sufficient incentives to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed to tanker traffic. Global energy supply pressure is expected to rise sharply. Investors are preparing for serious economic consequences. Safe-haven demand has pushed the U.S. dollar to strengthen.

The euro fell 0.3% against the dollar to $1.1524, the pound fell 0.35% against the dollar to $1.3319, and the dollar rose 0.22% against the yen to 159.81 yen.

The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States rose slightly last week, indicating a stable labor market and providing room for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged while assessing the risk of war-related inflation. The market has fully priced in the European Central Bank's expectations for three interest rate hikes this year. ECB policymakers said that if the war causes inflation to rise sharply, raising interest rates at the next meeting is "an option."

International News

Trump said he would postpone the attack on Iran’s power plants for another 10 days

On the afternoon of March 26, local time, and in the early morning of today (March 27), Beijing time, the President of the United States Trump posted on his social media "Real Social" saying, "At the request of the Iranian government, I hereby declare: I will postpone the attack on (Iran's) energy facilities for another 10 days to 8 p.m. Eastern Time on April 6, 2026." Trump also said, "Negotiations (with Iran) are ongoing, and despite false contrary statements made by the fake news media and other parties, the negotiations are going very well."

The United States is considering diverting weapons and ammunition to Ukraine to the Middle East

According to the "Washington Post" citing three people familiar with the matter, the Pentagon is considering diverting weapons and ammunition originally intended for Ukraine to the Middle East due to the tight supply of some key military ammunition in the United States due to the war with Iran. Reports said that possible reallocations include air defense interceptor missiles procured through NATO mechanisms. At the cabinet meeting that day, U.S. President Trump was also asked about this question, but he did not answer directly. He only said, "The United States has a large amount of ammunition, which is stockpiled in other countries, such as throughout Europe. It is sometimes transferred from one place and used in another place." NATO responded to the report and stated that weapons to Ukraine funded by NATO allies are still continuing to be delivered.

FAO of the United Nations: The conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran is rapidly impacting the global food supplyFood and energy supply chain

On March 26, local time, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations stated that the current round of conflict between the United States and Israel has triggered one of the fastest and most serious impacts on global xmaccount.commodity flows in recent years in a short period of time. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and the cost of energy, fertilizers and shipping insurance is rising, which continues to have spillover effects on global food security and the stability of the agricultural supply chain. FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero introduced at a media briefing that the Strait of Hormuz is a key channel for global energy and fertilizer transportation, carrying about 20 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for about 35% of global crude oil transportation. It also carries a large amount of liquefied natural gas and fertilizer trade and transportation, and sulfur in the Gulf is an important raw material for phosphate fertilizer production. The impact of blocked waterways has been rapidly transmitted to the global food and agricultural system.

The White House: There is no plan to mitigate the impact of the shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security

White House Press Secretary Carolyn Leavitt said in a statement that the White House is discussing how to mitigate the impact of the shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security, but no preparations or plans have been made yet. She said: "The best and easiest way to pay Transportation Security Administration (TSA) personnel is to fund the Department of Homeland Security."

The United States was revealed to be formulating a "fatal strike" military program against Iran

U.S. officials and sources said that the U.S. Department of Defense is formulating a "fatal strike" military program against Iran. The plan includes attacking Iran's main oil export hubs and important islands, as well as blocking or seizing ships transporting Iranian oil in the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, the US military has also formulated a ground operation plan deep into the interior of Iran to obtain high-abundance enriched uranium buried in nuclear facilities. Another option is to conduct large-scale air strikes to prevent Iran from acquiring these nuclear materials in the future. It is reported that US President Trump has not yet made a final decision on the above plan, and the White House also said that ground operations are still "hypothetical" discussions.

US media: Iran wants the United States to lower its demands before launching any negotiations

According to the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, Iran will not agree to meet to negotiate a possible ceasefire agreement until the United States agrees to scale back the demands set out in its 15-point plan. People familiar with the matter said Iran was open to talks but believed the U.S. proposals were excessive, with demands including dismantling most of its nuclear program, ending support for regional allies and limiting its missile program. Iranian and Arab officials said Tehran had ruled out discussing Iran's missile program as a starting point for talks. Iran is also unwilling to xmaccount.commit to a permanent halt to uranium enrichment, they said. Iran also wants assurances, preferably through a third party, that the United States and Israel will not attack again later, people familiar with the matter said. An Iranian official said Iran remains willing to consider previously proposed restrictions on its nuclear program, including diluting its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The United States suspects Iran could use its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which far exceeds any civilian needs, to eventually build a nuclear weapon.

Iran said it was ready to respond to the United States’ “suicide act”"Operation" to open the Strait of Hormuz

Iran's Tasnim News Agency quoted military insiders as saying on the 26th that if the United States wants to use a "suicide operation" to open the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is ready and will still block it. The report said that Iran has mobilized more than 1 million xmaccount.combat personnel to prepare for ground xmaccount.combat with the United States. In addition, a large number of Iranian young people are flocking to the recruitment centers of the Mobilization of the Poor, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and the military to apply for xmaccount.combat. The U.S. Axios news website quoted U.S. officials and sources as saying on the 26th that the U.S. Department of Defense is formulating a "fatal strike" military plan against Iran, including invading or blocking Iran's main oil export hub Khark Island and attacking Iran's control of the Holocaust. The strategically important Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, seizing Abu Musa Island and two other small islands at the western entrance of the Strait, and blocking or seizing ships transporting Iranian oil on the east side of the Strait of Hormuz

Mediator: Iran did not ask Trump to suspend attacks on energy facilities

According to the Wall Street Journal, mediators involved in the peace negotiations revealed that Iran. Lang did not ask the United States to suspend its strikes on its energy facilities or provide a final response to the 15-point plan to end the war. Trump had previously stated that the strike on Iran's energy facilities would be suspended for another 10 days until April 6. He said that the extension was at the request of Iran and that Iranian officials had informed them that Iran was negotiating. The mediators said Iran has asked the United States to scale back its excessive demands in the 15-point plan before agreeing to meet to discuss a possible ceasefire. Iran has also ruled out discussing its missile program as a starting point for negotiations and is unwilling to xmaccount.commit to a permanent halt to uranium enrichment. The possibility is still very low because the tough demands put forward by the United States and Iran are beyond what the other party can accept.

Domestic News

Minister Wang Wentao meets with U.S. Trade Representative Greer

On March 26, Minister of xmaccount.commerce Wang Wentao met with U.S. Trade Representative Greer during the 14th WTO Ministerial Conference in Yaounde, Cameroon. Lille. The two sides exchanged in-depth views on China-US economic and trade relations, multilateral and regional economic and trade cooperation and other issues. Li Yongqi, Ambassador of the Permanent Mission of China to the WTO, attended the meeting and said that President Xi Jinping pointed out that economy and trade should continue to be the ballast and propeller of China-US relations, rather than a stumbling block and point of conflict. The two sides should jointly implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state in Busan. Properly handle the relationship between xmaccount.competition and cooperation, the past and the future, strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation, avoid vicious xmaccount.competition, maintain close xmaccount.communication, and jointly "look forward" to promote the healthy, stable and sustainable development of bilateral economic and trade relations. Wang Wentao emphasized that China is willing to strengthen multilateral and regional economic and trade cooperation with the United States, jointly promote the reform of the WTO, and promote the 14th Ministerial Conference of the WTO to achieve practical results.The APEC and G20 meetings achieved positive results. Wang Wentao also expressed serious concern about the US launching Section 301 investigations against multiple economies, including China, on the grounds of so-called "overcapacity" and "failure to prohibit the import of forced labor products." Greer said that in the past year, the United States and China have conducted constructive economic and trade consultations and maintained close xmaccount.communication and cooperation. The United States is willing to work with China, guided by the consensus reached by the two heads of state, to strengthen dialogue, promote the continued stability of U.S.-China economic and trade relations, and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results in the economic and trade field. The United States is willing to strengthen xmaccount.communication and exchanges with China under the WTO and regional frameworks.

In the first two months of this year, my country’s total social logistics volume of 58.6 trillion yuan has rebounded significantly

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing today (27th) announced logistics operation data for the first two months of this year. Data shows that my country's logistics operation has achieved a good start, and social logistics demand has steadily rebounded. From January to February this year, my country's total social logistics volume was 58.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% based on xmaccount.comparable prices. The growth rate was 1.6 and 1.4 percentage points higher than the whole year of the previous year and the same period last year, respectively. The rebound trend is relatively obvious. From a structural perspective, domestic production and consumption and international import logistics demand have improved simultaneously, and logistics demand in all fields has accelerated xmaccount.compared with the same period last year. From January to February, the total volume of industrial product logistics increased by 6.3% year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate of industrial sub-sectors exceeds 80%, and the growth rates of xmaccount.computer, xmaccount.communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing, railway, ship, aerospace and other high-end equipment manufacturing fields all exceed 10%.

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