Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- ISM non-manufacturing data beats expectations, US dollar index climbs towards 20
- Gold, beware of sudden U-turns!
- A collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market
- A collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market
- Foreign exchange practical strategy on October 30
market analysis
A collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market
Wonderful introduction:
You don’t have to learn to be sad in your youth. What xmaccount.comes and goes is not worth the time. What I promised you, maybe it shouldn’t be a waste of time. Remember, the icy blue that stayed awake all night, is like the romance swallowed by purple jasmine, but the road is far away and the person has not returned. Where does the love stop?
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market xmaccount.commentary]: A collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On March 27 (Friday), the foreign exchange market ushered in a critical window period. Heavy news has been released overnight so far. The Fed’s policy tone, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, European and American economic data, and central bank movements jointly influence the direction of the foreign exchange market. This article sorts out the core good and bad news of the day, breaks down the transmission logic of the event to mainstream currency pairs, and helps traders grasp the rhythm of the market and avoid sudden risks.
1. Negative for the foreign exchange market (stronger US dollar, suppressing non-US currencies)
1. Federal Reserve officials made intensive hawkish statements, and expectations for interest rate cuts continued to cool down.
From overnight to early today, many senior Federal Reserve officials gave speeches one after another. The overall stance was hawkish, xmaccount.completely suppressing market easing expectations. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that the current U.S. inflation is extremely sticky and is still far from the 2% target. The conditions for an interest rate cut have not yet been met. High interest rates need to be maintained for a longer period of time to avoid premature interest rate cuts that lead to a rebound in inflation. Several Fed presidents simultaneously stated that they believe that the recent economic data are solid and the number of interest rate cuts during the year is likely to be reduced or even postponed until after the third quarter.
The news directly boosted the U.S. dollar index and suppressed non-U.S. currencies such as the euro, pound, and Australian dollar. U.S. bond yields rose across the board, funds returned to U.S. dollar assets, and U.S. dollar bulls' confidence increased. Non-U.S. currencies generally faced downward pressure, and European currencies and xmaccount.commodity currencies were under obvious short-term pressure.
2. The situation in the Middle East eased, and safe-haven currencies lost support
On March 26, local time, the United States announced that it would postpone its military strike plan against Iran’s energy facilities until April 6. The United States and Iran released negotiation signals, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumed, and risk aversion quickly cooled. Japan, which previously benefited from stronger risk aversionThe yuan and Swiss franc have lost their upward momentum in the short term, and safe-haven funds have withdrawn. The US dollar has strengthened again against the Japanese yen and the US dollar against the Swiss franc.
At the same time, international oil prices have plunged from highs, and concerns about energy inflation have eased, further consolidating the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, which is negative for safe-haven non-US currencies and positive for the US dollar index.
3. The European economy is weak, and the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates.
The latest economic data in the Eurozone are sluggish, with the manufacturing PMI continuing to be below the boom-bust line, and the economic recovery momentum is insufficient. The Governing Council of the European Central Bank has publicly stated that it is wary of the risk of stagflation, suggesting that the April interest rate meeting may release a easing signal. Market expectations for an early interest rate cut by the European Central Bank continue to rise. The divergence of monetary policies in Europe and the United States intensified, with the dollar strengthening and the euro weakening. The euro fell under pressure against the dollar and fell below key support levels.
2. Positive for the foreign exchange market (supporting non-US currencies and suppressing the US dollar)
1. The U.S. dollar index rose and fell in the short term, and the bullish momentum declined
Despite the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. dollar index saw profit taking after approaching the 100 mark, and fell in the short term, failing to achieve a strong breakthrough, leaving room for a rebound in non-U.S. currencies. Some funds believe that the Fed's hawkish expectations have been fully priced in, and the dollar has limited room for further upside. They have begun to position non-U.S. currencies at low levels to alleviate the downward pressure on non-U.S. currencies.
2. Expectations of intervention by the Japanese authorities have increased, and the yen has received support
The U.S. dollar continues to rise against the yen, approaching historical highs. Officials from the Japanese Ministry of Finance frequently release verbal intervention signals, warning of excessive depreciation of the yen, suggesting that substantive actions may be taken to stabilize the exchange rate. At the same time, Japan's domestic inflation data has picked up, and the market's expectations for the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy have increased slightly, which is negative for the U.S. dollar against the yen, good for the trend of the yen, and alleviates the pressure of depreciation of the yen.
3. British inflation has stabilized, and expectations for a pound interest rate cut have eased slightly
The latest UK CPI data is in line with expectations, core inflation has not accelerated its decline, economic resilience has slightly shown, and market expectations for the Bank of England to cut interest rates too quickly have cooled. The pound against the US dollar ushered in a technical recovery after the sharp decline. Short sellers took profits and the pound stabilized at a low level, becoming a relatively resistant variety among European currencies.
4. Global risk appetite has picked up, and xmaccount.commodity currencies have received slight support
After the situation in the Middle East eased, global capital market risk appetite picked up, the stock market stabilized and rebounded, and xmaccount.commodity prices recovered from shocks. xmaccount.commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar, driven by the stabilization of xmaccount.commodities and the recovery of risk sentiment, have slowed down their declines, received buying support at low levels, and narrowed their declines.
3. Today’s key events
1. Many Federal Reserve officials spoke again in the evening, including Barkin, Daley, etc. The content of the speeches will directly affect the short-term trend of the US dollar, and we need to be wary of the violent fluctuations in the foreign exchange market caused by the change in rhetoric.
2. If the US initial jobless claims data for the week is strong, it will further strengthen hawkish expectations and be positive for the US dollar; if the data is weak, it will ease the US dollar's rise.
3. With the subsequent development of the situation in the Middle East, if there is a signal of breakdown in negotiations, risk aversion will heat up again. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are expected to rebound, and oil price fluctuations will also affect xmaccount.commodity currencies.
4. Trading Tips
Today’s foreign exchange market overall shows a pattern of strong US dollar and non-US differentiation. Bad news dominates, and the good news is only short-term recovery. Traders need to closely follow the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy, pay close attention to the evening data and officials' speeches, and operate with the trend. The rebound of non-U.S. currencies is limited, so do not blindly buy the bottom; dollar bulls need to be wary of the risk of falling back from high levels and set strict stop losses. As the weekend approaches, capital risk aversion may heat up, and there is a high probability of fluctuations in late trading. It is recommended to control positions and guard against overnight risks.
Warm reminder: This article only xmaccount.compiles public market information and does not constitute investment advice. The foreign exchange market is highly volatile, and transactions require strict discipline and risk control.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market xmaccount.commentary]: Collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market". It is carefully xmaccount.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
Sharing is as simple as a gust of wind can bring refreshing, as pure as a flower can bring fragrance. Gradually my dusty heart opened up, and I understood that sharing is actually as simple as the technology.
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here