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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market xmaccount.commentary]: Geopolitical risks make the U.S. dollar continue to strengthen, is the storm xmaccount.coming for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

In Asian trading on Friday, the U.S. dollar index rose. The U.S. dollar rose against major currencies on Thursday, with the U.S. dollar index rising 0.35% to 99.97. Affected by the huge differences in the US-Iran peace agreement and the thwarted hope of de-escalating the situation in the Middle East. An Iranian official said the U.S. plan failed to meet minimum requirements and only served U.S. and Israeli interests, but diplomatic efforts were not over yet, while U.S. President Trump expressed uncertainty about his willingness to reach a deal to end the war.

Analysis of major currency trends

US dollar: As of press time, the US dollar index is hovering around 99.92. The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% at the March meeting. The updated dot plot shows that one rate cut is expected this year. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits on Thursday was 210,000, fully in line with expectations and not having a significant impact on the market. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (expected 54, previous value 55.5) and one-year inflation expectations (expected 3.4%) will be released on Friday. Any upward surprises in inflation expectations will strengthen the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance and support the strengthening of the dollar before the April Federal Open Market xmaccount.committee (FOMC) meeting.

The war is expected to continue as Iran rejects a 15-point U.S. plan to end the conflict, saying any deal must be based on its own conditions, including security guarantees and countermeasures.Recognition of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

Sterling: As of press time, GBP/USD was hovering around 1.3329. GBP/USD fell about 0.1% on Thursday, closing at around 1.3340 in volatile trading. The pair spent most of March in a roughly 200-pip range from 1.3230 to 1.3430, forming a series of lower highs since late January's high near 1.3820, indicating tapering upward momentum. Thursday's K-line showed that it briefly dipped to 1.3310 during the US trading session, and then buyers stepped in to recover some of the lost ground. Technically, the short-term bias is mildly bullish as prices recover above the intraday 1.3336–1.3338 range while holding below the slowly descending 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3342. The Stochastic RSI has recovered from its mid-range and tilted upward, indicating improving upward momentum rather than overbought or oversold pressure. This supports the possibility of a gradual breakout of nearby moving average resistance rather than an immediate downward reversal.

Foreign exchange market news summary

1. Market news: The Federal Reserve may face a dilemma in its dual missions

Benjamin Louvet, an analyst at Offi Investment Asset Management, said in a report that the Federal Reserve may face a dilemma in its dual missions of employment and inflation: Should it raise interest rates to deal with inflation, or should it lower interest rates to support economic growth and employment? The head of the xmaccount.commodities department said: "Since raising interest rates cannot alleviate the supply shock without harming economic growth, it seems unlikely that the Fed will choose to raise interest rates." In addition, falling income from the Gulf countries, which are major buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds, may also weaken U.S. debt financing and force the Fed to lower interest rates or even resume bond purchases to support the economy.

2. The OECD predicts that the UK's annual inflation rate will rise to 4% this year

The OECD predicts that due to high energy prices, the UK's overall annual inflation rate will climb to 4% this year. The latest data for February showed that the UK's annual headline CPI inflation rate was 3.0%. War in the Middle East has led to energy supply disruptions and high oil prices, thereby increasing inflation risks. Lindsay James, an analyst at Quilter, said in a report: "Unless the situation changes in the near future, conflict resolution may take months rather than weeks, and even after the conflict ends, energy prices will remain at high levels for a long time."Jobless claims fell to their lowest level in nearly two years, a sign that the labor market remains stable despite new economic headwinds. Data showed that continuing claims for unemployment benefits fell by 32,000 to 1.819 million in the week ended March 14, the lowest level since May 2024. Despite big-name xmaccount.companies like CBS and Meta announcing layoffs, jobless claims have remained low. but. As oil prices soar due to the Iran war, many economists have cut their forecasts for the U.S. economy this year and raised their unemployment forecasts.

4. Survey predicts: The Federal Reserve may still plan to lower interest rates later this year

According to a Reuters survey, economists believe that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until September. But despite lingering concerns about inflation caused by war in the Middle East, these economists still expect at least one rate cut later this year. In contrast, financial markets have xmaccount.completely ruled out the possibility of an interest rate cut this year and believe that the possibility of an interest rate increase this year is as high as nearly 30%. Because the war between the United States, Israel and Iran has lasted for four weeks, crude oil prices have risen by more than 40%. Economists expect the impact of the energy shock to be more limited and shorter-lasting. In the Reuters survey, economists had clear differences in their forecasts for interest rate levels by the end of 2026, which can be roughly divided into four categories. 28 people expected one interest rate cut, and 37 people believed there would be two interest rate cuts. Although 13 people expected interest rates to remain unchanged this year, 4 people predicted three interest rate cuts.

5. The European Parliament voted to approve the EU-US trade agreement

On March 26, local time, the European Parliament plenary session voted on the EU-US trade agreement, and the agreement was finally passed. The International Trade xmaccount.committee of the European Parliament voted with 29 votes in favor on March 19 to resume the legislative review and approval process related to the EU-US trade agreement. Europe and the United States reached a trade agreement in July 2025. The EU needs to eliminate tariffs on US-made industrial products and provide preferential market access to US seafood and agricultural products in exchange for the US imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods exported to the US.

Institutional Views

1. Institutions: Although slowing inflation is unlikely to prevent the Reserve Bank of Australia from raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May

National Australia Bank stated that Australia’s February inflation data showed that price pressures have eased slightly, but it is not enough to substantially change the Reserve Bank of Australia’s tightening tendency. Australia's overall CPI rose by 3.7% year-on-year in February, slightly lower than the 3.8% expected. The key measure of underlying inflation rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, also slightly lower than expected. xmaccount.combined with last week's rise in unemployment, the latest inflation data may ease some of the central bank's concerns about excess demand and continued inflation. However, the bank stressed that any relief may be limited. The labor market remains slightly tighter than full employment, and inflation is expected to return only slowly to target. Crucially, these inflation figures are based onThe release follows a sharp rise in global energy prices linked to the Iran conflict, which is expected to put fresh upward pressure on inflation in the xmaccount.coming months. Therefore, policymakers may place more emphasis on forward-looking risks rather than retrospective data. The bank continues to expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May in an effort to control inflation risks in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

2. Institutions: The Bank of Canada is expected to shift to a more neutral monetary policy stance at the end of the year

Scotiabank stated that although Canada's economic growth has slowed in the short term, this is likely to be temporary, so the Bank of Canada will not react to this. The bank also does not expect the central bank to react to the direct impact of rising oil prices on inflation, even if changes in the balance of inflation risks do require caution. Therefore, Scotiabank's analysis believes that the Bank of Canada will begin to gradually withdraw its monetary stimulus policy and shift to a more neutral stance before the end of the year. This means that the bank will keep interest rates unchanged in the short term until the renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is finalized.

3. Deutsche Bank: The rebound in inflation is expected to end the possibility of the Bank of England cutting interest rates this year

Deutsche Bank analyst Sanjay Raja said in a report that given the sharp rise in energy prices, the Bank of England's return to the 2% inflation target seems to be a distant memory. He said: "The pick-up in inflation will end any discussion of interest rate cuts this year. Moreover, the risk that the Bank of England may change policy and raise interest rates can no longer be ignored." Raja said that oil prices rose by nearly 7% in March and may rise by a similar amount in April. Potential spillovers are also growing in other CPI baskets, with fertilizer prices rising, shipping costs soaring and the potential for second-round effects not to be discounted. He expects inflation to peak at around 3.5% later this year.

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翻译错误：Unexpected character encountered while parsing value: <. Path '', line 0, position 0.

Analysis of major currency trends

1. Market news: The Federal Reserve may face a dilemma in its dual missions

2. The OECD predicts that the UK's annual inflation rate will rise to 4% this year

4. Survey predicts: The Federal Reserve may still plan to lower interest rates later this year

5. The European Parliament voted to approve the EU-US trade agreement

Institutional Views

1. Institutions: Although slowing inflation is unlikely to prevent the Reserve Bank of Australia from raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May

2. Institutions: The Bank of Canada is expected to shift to a more neutral monetary policy stance at the end of the year

Related News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

翻译错误：Unexpected character encountered while parsing value: <. Path '', line 0, position 0.

Analysis of major currency trends

1. Market news: The Federal Reserve may face a dilemma in its dual missions

2. The OECD predicts that the UK's annual inflation rate will rise to 4% this year

4. Survey predicts: The Federal Reserve may still plan to lower interest rates later this year

5. The European Parliament voted to approve the EU-US trade agreement

Institutional Views

1. Institutions: Although slowing inflation is unlikely to prevent the Reserve Bank of Australia from raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May

2. Institutions: The Bank of Canada is expected to shift to a more neutral monetary policy stance at the end of the year

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason