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Dollar rebounds on Trump's Iran warning, markets brace for non-farm payrolls data

Wonderful introduction:

One person’s happiness may be fake, but the happiness of a group of people can no longer distinguish between true and false. They squandered their youth to their heart's content, wishing they could burn it all away. Their posture was like a carnival before the end of the world.

Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: The U.S. dollar rebounded due to Trump's warning to Iran, and the market is ready for non-farm payroll data." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

In Asian trading on Tuesday, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated at high levels. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.22% on Monday, hitting its highest level since May 19. The euro fell 0.44% against the U.S. dollar to $1.1457, affected by concerns that the continued war between the United States, Israel and Iran may drag down economic growth. The U.S. dollar also benefited from safe-haven buying and the U.S.'s relative advantage as a net energy exporter. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said he would wait to see the impact of the war on the economy and inflation, while federal funds rate futures traders have withdrawn their expectations for an interest rate cut within the year.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar: As of press time, the U.S. dollar index is hovering around 100.43, with the U.S. dollar index standing above the 100 mark. Against the background of the continued escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and the Federal Reserve's shift from expectations of interest rate cuts to xmaccount.combating inflation, U.S. dollar buying is unusually strong. Under the dual effects of geopolitical uncertainty and policy shifts, the U.S. dollar has become the "default safe haven" for global funds. Technically, the U.S. dollar successfully stood at the 100 integer mark, close to the top of the 11-month range, showing a potential five-wave rise. After breaking through the resistance range of 100.25-100.50, the upside space is expected to open to 101.00-101.20; the key support below is located at 99.50-99.80. If it falls, it will test around 98.80. Moving average system and technical indicators: The price is running above all major moving averages (5/10/20), and the Bollinger Bands channel bandwidth has narrowed, showing that short-term volatility has decreased but the bullish trend has not changed. RSI (14) is about 62, which is neutral and bullish, and has not entered overbought. The MACD histogram remains positive and the golden cross continues.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1472. EUR/USD continued its decline on Monday and fell back below the psychological mark of 1.1500, as the overall strength of the US dollar (USD) put pressure on the euro (EUR). The US dollar continued to be protected by geopolitical tensions caused by the war between the United States and Iran and the surge in oil prices. Sentiment is supportive. Higher oil prices typically boost demand for the dollar. On the data front, preliminary German inflation data showed a pickup in price pressures, suggesting that inflation is starting to rise again. Technically, the short-term bias is slightly bearish, after falling below the bottom of the ascending channel for 4 hours. The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) histogram turned negative, with the MACD line below the signal line and both below zero, strengthening the downward momentum; the relative strength index (RSI) has fallen below the 40 line, showing that sellers are still dominant, but have not yet entered an oversold state. The lower support is at the low of 1.1484 on March 23, temporarily blocking the bears. The path to the March 18 and 19 lows is in the 1.1444 area. Bulls may encounter resistance near the reversal trend line, which is now located around 1.1555, and the March 26 high in the 1.1575 area. A break above this resistance, although unlikely, will expose pressure around last week's high of 1.1635.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3200. As the escalation of the situation in the Middle East pushed the U.S. dollar (USD) to strengthen, oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, and the pound (GBP) fell sharply on Monday. Market sentiment improved slightly, and U.S. President Donald Trump said that the current situation in Iran The Lang regime seems "rational", but he added that if the new Iranian regime does not open the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict may escalate with the arrival of 3,500 US troops in the Middle East. In the United States, investors will focus on the consumer confidence index and the February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), as well as the Federal Reserve. Reserve official's speech. Technically, the recent resistance is around 1.3330, which is the intersection of the recent fluctuation high and the downward trend line. If there is a corrective rebound, the next resistance levels are 1.3410 and 1.3435. On the lower side, the latest low of 1.3188 is the primary level of concern. Weakness would open the door to the psychological 1.3100 area, followed by 1.3035, the beginning of the previous trend line, as deeper support. As long as the price remains below the moving average group around 1.3330 and 1.3500, the rebound may be sold rather than sustained.

Forex market newsInterest rate summary

1. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 97.4%, and the probability of raising interest rates in December has dropped to 4%.

According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 2.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.4%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by June is 5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 92.5%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively is 2.5%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by December is 14.1% (1.3% the day before), the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 82% (74% the day before), and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points has dropped to 4% (24.6% the day before, and 24.6% last Monday). (up to 40%)

2. Iran’s first vice president warned the United States: sending troops to Khark Island will lead to no return

On March 30, local time, Iran’s first vice president Aref warned U.S. President Trump not to send troops to attack Iran’s Khark Island. Aref said that Trump can decide whether to send troops to Khalk Island, but whether to withdraw troops from there will not be controlled by the United States, because "no one can xmaccount.come back alive from hell." Khark Island is located in the northwest of the Persian Gulf, about 25 kilometers away from the coast of Iran, about 6 kilometers long and 3 kilometers wide. It is Iran's largest crude oil export base, and 90% of Iran's crude oil is exported from here. (CCTV News)

3. European officials: Iran is putting pressure on the Houthis to take action against Red Sea shipping

According to informed European officials, Iran is putting pressure on the Houthis and is preparing to restart operations against Red Sea shipping. Whether it is implemented will depend on whether the U.S. war against Iran further escalates. Leaders of the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen are considering more aggressive action after launching ballistic missiles at Israel, people familiar with the matter said. Disagreement within Houthi leadership over the aggressiveness of the operation was part of the reason the group did not intervene until a month after the conflict began, the person said. The Houthis issued a statement on Saturday saying they would continue military operations until the United States and Israel cease their attacks on Iran and its proxy forces, including Lebanese Hezbollah. The statement did not explicitly indicate that it would launch attacks on oil tankers and other ships passing through the Red Sea. The above-mentioned people also said that U.S. and Saudi officials have informed European allies that they believe that the Houthis currently want to avoid further escalation of the situation and will not attack U.S. and Saudi-related targets for the time being.

4. The Iranian Parliament approved the levy of tolls on the Strait, which must be paid in Iranian local currency

On Monday local time, the Iranian Parliament passed a bill to impose tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The toll for an oil tanker can be as high as $2 million. The new navigation control plan also includes a ban on ships related to the United States, Israel or countries that have previously imposed unilateral sanctions on Iran, Iranian media reported, citing officials from the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy xmaccount.committee.To pass through this passage, the toll must be paid in Iranian rial. Iran will work with Oman to develop the relevant legal framework. Shortly before the bill was approved, the White House said the United States did not support Iran's imposition of tolls.

5. Fed Chairman Powell: The balance sheet is an effective tool

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell defended the Fed’s asset purchases on Monday, while acknowledging that there is still uncertainty about how much this action will help the economy. Speaking at Harvard University, Powell said that the Fed implemented asset purchases during times of severe stress, "We really haven't seen the downside risks yet." He also said, "The purchase of long-term assets does lower interest rates and does provide some support for economic activity."

Institutional View

< h3>1. Mitsubishi UFJ: Intervention expectations and risk aversion limit further weakening of the yen

Mitsubishi UFJ analysts said in a report that given that the Japanese authorities may intervene to support the exchange rate and that the Iran war may trigger an increase in risk aversion, there is limited room for further depreciation of the yen. They noted that any new yen selling could be met with the kind of intervention Japan has repeatedly warned about. If global growth concerns intensify, global equities could see a sharper decline, pushing down U.S. short-end yields and prompting the market to unwind long positions that had been betting on a stronger dollar against the yen.

2. Mitsubishi UFJ: Heightening risk aversion may depress the pound and the Swiss franc, boosted by safe-haven demand

Mitsubishi UFJ analysts said in a report that if the Iran war leads to a further decline in risk appetite, the pound may weaken against the Swiss franc. They noted that risk aversion may intensify as the market's focus shifts from the inflationary impact of rising energy prices to the impact on economic growth. This will weigh on the pound, while concerns about stagflation in the UK will also weigh on the market. In this scenario, the impact of these factors will exceed the previous support for the pound due to the Bank of England's interest rate hike expectations. Meanwhile, the lagging Swiss franc will benefit from its safe-haven properties.

3. Morgan Stanley: The Bank of England may hold off on raising interest rates and wait for more inflation data

Morgan Stanley strategists Fabio Bassanin and Luca Salford said in a report that members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy xmaccount.committee may keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% at the policy meeting on April 30. They said most BoE officials appeared inclined to wait for more evidence before addressing the latest upside risks to inflation. LSEG data shows that the market currently expects a 62% probability of the Bank of England raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April, down from 87% priced last week.

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market news

Dollar rebounds on Trump's Iran warning, markets brace for non-farm payrolls data

Analysis of major currency trends

1. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 97.4%, and the probability of raising interest rates in December has dropped to 4%.

2. Iran’s first vice president warned the United States: sending troops to Khark Island will lead to no return

3. European officials: Iran is putting pressure on the Houthis to take action against Red Sea shipping

4. The Iranian Parliament approved the levy of tolls on the Strait, which must be paid in Iranian local currency

5. Fed Chairman Powell: The balance sheet is an effective tool

Institutional View

2. Mitsubishi UFJ: Heightening risk aversion may depress the pound and the Swiss franc, boosted by safe-haven demand

3. Morgan Stanley: The Bank of England may hold off on raising interest rates and wait for more inflation data

Related News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market news

Dollar rebounds on Trump's Iran warning, markets brace for non-farm payrolls data

Analysis of major currency trends

1. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 97.4%, and the probability of raising interest rates in December has dropped to 4%.

2. Iran’s first vice president warned the United States: sending troops to Khark Island will lead to no return

3. European officials: Iran is putting pressure on the Houthis to take action against Red Sea shipping

4. The Iranian Parliament approved the levy of tolls on the Strait, which must be paid in Iranian local currency

5. Fed Chairman Powell: The balance sheet is an effective tool

Institutional View

2. Mitsubishi UFJ: Heightening risk aversion may depress the pound and the Swiss franc, boosted by safe-haven demand

3. Morgan Stanley: The Bank of England may hold off on raising interest rates and wait for more inflation data

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason