Oil prices returned to below $100, and optimism about the easing of the situation in the Middle East helped gold prices approach the 4,800 mark.

Basic news

In early trading in the Asian market on Thursday (April 2, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$4,800 per ounce, and gold prices rose for the fifth consecutive trading day. , mainly boosted by the weakening of the U.S. dollar, the market's cautious optimism that the situation in the Middle East may ease also boosted gold prices. Oil prices fell by more than 1%, trading around $98.85 per barrel. U.S. President Trump said that the United States will soon end the war with Iran.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, with all three major stock indexes rising. The S&P 500 rose 0.72% to close at 6,575.32 points, the Nasdaq rose 116% to close at 21,840.95 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 0.48% to close at 46,565.74 points. Previously, President Trump hinted that the conflict in the Middle East may be xmaccount.coming to an end. He said that the United States will "withdraw from Iran soon" and may resume "targeted strikes" if necessary. The market interpreted this as a positive signal.

Trump’s speech pushed Alphabet up 3.4%, Meta and Amazon both rose more than 1%, and other technology giants generally rose higher; Intel rose 8.8% as it announced that it would repurchase Apollo’s shares in its Irish factory for US$14.2 billion; news that SpaceX has secretly submitted an IPO application drove aerospace stocks to rise.

A sharp drop in oil prices dragged the energy sector down 3.9%, while airline stocks jumped 2.3%. In terms of individual stocks, Nike fell 15.5% to hit its lowest level in ten years after unexpectedly predicting a decline in sales in the fourth quarter.

Economic data showed steady growth in U.S. private sector employment in March, and retail sales increased in FebruaryHitting a seven-month high, manufacturing activity also picked up. Market focus turns to Friday's March non-farm payrolls data, but U.S. markets will be closed due to the Good Friday holiday. Traders now see the Fed as more likely to raise interest rates than to cut them before the end of the year as concerns about inflation mount.

Gold Market

Gold prices rose for the fourth consecutive trading day on Wednesday. Spot gold closed up 2.5% at US$4,784.22 per ounce, and U.S. gold futures closed up 2.9% at US$4,813.10. This was mainly boosted by the weakening of the US dollar for the second consecutive trading day, which made gold priced in US dollars more attractive to investors holding other currencies.

The market’s cautious optimism that the situation in the Middle East may ease has also boosted gold prices. RJOFutures senior market strategist said that if the situation is downgraded, gold prices are expected to return to above US$5,000 and expectations of interest rate cuts will resurface. U.S. President Donald Trump, who plans to address the nation on Thursday, said Iran had requested a ceasefire, a claim denied by Iran's Foreign Ministry.

In terms of economic data, the ADP report showed steady growth in U.S. private sector employment in March. Retail sales were strong in February, but high gasoline prices may curb future consumption. Spot silver rose 1.2% to $76.03, while platinum and palladium were also higher.

Oil market

Oil prices ended lower on Wednesday as President Trump said the United States would soon end the war with Iran. Brent crude oil futures fell 2.7% to $101.16 a barrel, hitting a low of $98.35 during the session. U.S. crude oil futures fell about 1.2% to $100.12 a barrel, hitting a low of $96.50 during the session.

Trump said the United States has ensured that Iran will not acquire nuclear weapons and is ready to end the war "very soon", while his remarks on Tuesday about ending the war within two to three weeks have caused oil prices to fall by more than $3 per barrel. SEB analysts pointed out that the market is betting that Trump will not let supply disruptions last until mid-May, the peak gasoline demand season, because the long-term conflict poses political risks to U.S. gasoline prices, consumer confidence and mid-term elections.

Although the United States and Iran continue to send contradictory signals - Trump said that Iran has made a cease-fire request but Iran has denied it, and the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked - analysts predict that even if the cease-fire occurs, it will be difficult for energy transportation to recover quickly. At the same time, OPEC crude oil production fell by 7.5 million barrels per day in March due to the closure of the strait, U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected last week, and Saudi Arabia may increase its official selling price for Asian crude oil in May to a record level.

Foreign Market

The U.S. dollar fell against major currencies such as the Swiss franc and the euro for the second consecutive trading day on Wednesday, as demand for safe-haven assets weakened as signs of a possible ceasefire in the Middle East conflict increased. U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. will soon end its war with Iran and is scheduled to address the nation on Thursday, prompting a reversal of some trades that had been popular as a safe haven.

EUR/USD rose 0.27% to 1.1584 US dollars, rising for the second consecutive trading day; the US dollar against the Swiss franc fell 0.58% to 0.7947 Swiss francs; the US dollar against the Japanese yen fell from this year's high, but still rose slightly by 0.09% to 158.85 yen.

Although attacks continue to occur in many places in the Middle East, oil prices have fallen significantly in anticipation of a ceasefire. Market focus turns to Friday's U.S. March employment report. If the labor market deteriorates sharply, it may revive expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year.

International News

Trump asked the military to propose a plan to seize Iranian nuclear materials

On April 1, local time, according to the "Washington Post" report, two people familiar with the matter revealed that the U.S. military has submitted a plan to U.S. President Trump to seize more than 460 kilograms of highly enriched uranium in Iran. The plan involves flying excavation equipment into the site and building a runway to allow cargo planes to transport the nuclear material out, the report said. According to people familiar with the matter, Trump had previously asked the military to submit a relevant plan, and the military reported this xmaccount.complex plan to him in the past week, and also explained the major operational risks contained in the plan. According to reports, Trump’s request indicates that he is deliberately considering an extremely sensitive and high-risk special operations mission.

The Pentagon will double the number of A-10 attack aircraft deployed in the Middle East

Despite Trump's stated hope of ending the war with Iran within two to three weeks, the Pentagon will double the number of Air Force A-10 attack aircraft deployed in the Middle East. These aircraft provide support for the advance of ground forces. The Air Force will send 18 more A-10 attack aircraft, adding to the roughly 12 already in the region, two Pentagon officials said Wednesday. Previously, U.S. military xmaccount.commanders have used these A-10 attack aircraft to attack Iranian ships and Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq. The slow A-10 Warthog is a so-called close air support aircraft with a powerful nose-mounted cannon that can fire 70 30mm rounds per second.

Trump said that Iran is currently "incapable" of developing nuclear weapons

On April 1, local time, US President Trump said that he was not concerned about Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, and said that the relevant facilities were "buried very deep." Trump said that the United States will continue to monitor the relevant situation through satellites, saying that Iran is currently "incapable" of developing nuclear weapons, and reiterated that the goal of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons has been achieved.

Vance told the mediator that Trump is running out of patience to reach an agreement with Iran

U.S. Vice President Vance was still xmaccount.communicating on the Iran conflict through a Pakistani intermediary on Tuesday, telling the other party that Trump was impatient to reach an agreement. Vance conveyed to Pakistan that Trump was open to a ceasefire if U.S. conditions, such as reopening the Strait of Hormuz, were met. Vance said unless Iran agrees to a deal, pressure on its infrastructure will increase further.

The Middle East’s largest aluminum producer shuts down its smelter due to Iranian attacks

Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA), the Middle East’s largest aluminum producer, has suspended operations after its AlTaweelah smelter in the suburbs of Abu Dhabi was attacked by Iranian missiles and drones, according to people familiar with the matter. The attack knocked out power to the plant, forced the smelting facility to uncontrollably shut down, and caused metal to solidify in the smelting circuit, causing significant damage to operations. Bahrain Aluminum Co., another major producer in the region, also confirmed it had been attacked by Iran over the weekend. The two plants are the world's largest aluminum plants, with a respective output of 1.6 million tons in 2025. The Middle East's overall production accounts for about 9% of global supply, and EGA and other manufacturers play a key role in supplying manufacturers in Europe, Asia and the United States.

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Iran’s Supreme Leader is in good health, but his public appearance has been postponed due to the war

According to a report by the Islamic Republic News Agency on April 1, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagaei said in an interview with the media that Iran’s Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei is in good health, but his public appearance has been postponed due to the war. Baghaei told "Egyptian Today": "He (Mujtaba) is in good health. I think it may take some time for him to appear in public under the current wartime situation, which is not surprising. But I assure you that the country, government administration and national defense are operating efficiently."

Trump became the first sitting president in U.S. history to attend a Supreme Court hearing

On April 1, local time, the U.S. Supreme Court opened a hearing to review the legality of President Trump's directive to restrict birthright citizenship in the United States. The controversial plan, which is tied to the Trump administration's efforts to curb immigration, would upend long-held understandings of a key provision of the U.S. Constitution if implemented. Trump attended an oral argument at the Supreme Court on the policy of restricting birthright citizenship, becoming the first sitting president in U.S. history to attend a Supreme Court hearing in person. Demonstrators gathered outside the courthouse, some holding anti-Trump signs. According to Clare Cushman, resident historian of the Supreme Court Historical Society, Trump is the first sitting president to appear at an oral argument before the Supreme Court. Although there are historical precedents for presidents to argue cases before the Supreme Court in the 19th century, they were no longer in office at the time, including John Quincy Adams, Grover Cleveland, and Benjamin Harrison.

International Energy Agency Director: The oil supply gap in April will be twice that of March

International Energy Agency Director Fatih? Birol said in a podcast released on Wednesday that the agency is considering whether to urgently release oil reserves again and recommended that governments take other energy-saving measures, such as promoting home offices and lowering car speed limits. Birol was interviewed by Norges Bank Investment Management CEO Nikola? "The situation in April will be much more severe than that in March," Tangen said in the program. He said that the oil supply in March benefited from cargoes that were already in transit before the outbreak of the Iranian war, so the situation was relatively relaxed.He added: "The oil supply gap in April will be double that of March." Last month, 32 International Energy Agency members, including the United States, released 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves to suppress crude prices, which was the largest reserve release in the agency's history. "We are assessing the market situation on a daily and even hourly basis" to decide whether to take further intervention measures, Birol said.

Domestic News

Fuel surcharges on domestic routes will be raised starting from April 5

Today (April 1), Air China, Xiamen Airlines, China United Airlines and many other airlines issued announcements to adjust the fuel surcharge charging standards for passenger transportation on domestic routes. Xiamen Airlines’ announcement shows that starting from 0:00 on April 5, 2026, the fuel surcharge for passenger transportation on domestic routes will be adjusted. Among them, routes of less than 800 kilometers (inclusive) have been raised from 10 yuan to 60 yuan, and routes of more than 800 kilometers have been raised from 20 yuan to 120 yuan. A notice from China United Airlines Co., Ltd. shows that the standard for charging fuel surcharges for passenger transportation on domestic routes is: RMB 60 per passenger for segments below 800 kilometers (inclusive); RMB 120 for each passenger for segments above 800 kilometers. It is understood that aviation fuel costs are the largest single cost expenditure in the aviation industry, accounting for 30% to 40% of the total operating costs of airlines. Relevant sources said: This fee increase is closely related to the recent violent fluctuations in international oil prices. According to statistics from xmaccount.commodity research organization General Index, aviation kerosene, which is specially used for jet engine aircraft, has risen from nearly 800 US dollars per ton at the end of February to 1,600 US dollars per ton. The increase is much higher than other petrochemical products such as gasoline, marine fuel and naphtha.

The above content is all about "[XM Group]: Oil prices have returned to below 100 US dollars, optimism about the easing of the situation in the Middle East has helped gold prices approach the 4800 mark", which was carefully xmaccount.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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